Upon reading between the lines of Polish President Andrzej Duda’s latest interview, it’s clear that he inadvertently made the following “politically inconvenient” points: 1) Poland exploited the Ukrainian Conflict to expand its envisaged regional “sphere of influence”; 2) another Color Revolution might be brewing in Belarus; and 3) Russia could ultimately win this proxy war if Kiev decides to cede territory as part of a (partially?) French-mediated compromise.
Polish President Andrzej Duda recently gave an interview to France’s Le Figaro, which on the surface appeared to be all about praising Zelensky personally and Ukraine in general alongside smearing Russia, but actually contained some intriguing insight if one reads between the lines. The full text was published in Polish on Duda’s official website, which anyone can access here and understand using Google Translate. Here’s what the Polish President accidentally let slip during his interview:
* The Ukrainian Conflict Helped Improve Difficult Bilateral Ties With Kiev At The Local Level
Duda praised the improvement of bilateral ties at the local level as embodied by January’s ceremony at Lvov’s Lychakov Cemetery commemorating Polish independence-era fighters, but he also hinted that this was due to the recent conflict and acknowledged how difficult their mutual past has hitherto to.
* Warsaw Won’t Comment On The De Facto Revival Of The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth
The Polish President conspicuously avoided answering his interlocutor’s question about the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth’s de facto revival through the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) and Warsaw’s simultaneously improved ties with the Baltic States and Ukraine, which was very suspicious of him.
* Duda Expressed Doublethink Over NATO’s Article 5 & Supposed Russian Threats To Poland
In a textbook example of doublethink, Duda doubled down on his belief in the inviolability of NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense commitment yet still fearmongered about a so-called Russian threat to the Sulwaki Corridor, the latter of which he’s exploiting to expand Polish influence over the Baltics States.
* Poland Tried Exploiting Its Role In The Ukrainian Conflict To Squeeze Reparations Out Of Germany
Duda didn’t directly say as much in his answer to being asked about why he chose last year of all times to revive Poland’s World War II reparations spat with Germany, but he arguably implied from the larger context of his interview that he thought its role in the Ukrainian Conflict would help its case.
* Duda Threw Morawiecki Under The Bus Over His Condemnation Of Macron’s Talks With Putin
Duda threw Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki under the bus by defending Macron’s talks with Putin as being due to their different views of Russia brought about by their different experiences, which contradicts his underlining’s prior condemnation of them as akin to talking to Hitler.
* Poland Has Transformed Into The US’ Most Pivotal Anti-Russian Vassal
By scaling up defense spending to twice the level expected of NATO states at 4% of GDP instead of 2% and hosting nearly 10,000 troops, Poland has transformed itself into the US’ most pivotal anti-Russian vassal, which implies expectations that Washington will support its envisaged regional hegemony.
* Duda Didn’t Rule Out That Kiev Might One Day Make Territorial Concessions To Russia
Instead of ruling out the scenario of Kiev one day making territorial concessions to Russia like some Republicans support, Duda said that only the Ukrainians themselves can decide to do so, which suggests that Poland is no longer opposed to this outcome in principle.
* Poland Supports Another Color Revolution Regime Change Campaign Against Belarus
While ruling out the chances of a “Solidarity”-like Color Revolution regime change campaign ever breaking out in Russia, Duda exclaimed that “it’s possible in Belarus!”, which extends credence to prior suspicions that Poland orchestrated the previous one while hinting that another might be in the works.
* Russia’s Special Operation Might Ultimately Be A Success
Prior to the “official narrative” about the conflict decisively shifting last month, no one could have ever thought that the Polish President would predict that Russia’s special operation might ultimately be a success, albeit supposedly only in the event that Kiev doesn’t urgently receive more arms right away.
Upon reading between the lines of Duda’s latest interview, it’s clear that he inadvertently made the following “politically inconvenient” points: 1) Poland exploited the Ukrainian Conflict to expand its envisaged regional “sphere of influence”; 2) another Color Revolution might be brewing in Belarus; and 3) Russia could ultimately win this proxy war if Kiev decides to cede territory as part of a (partially?) French-mediated compromise. All of this should give observers a lot to think about in the coming weeks.
After donating much of Poland's inventory of pre-1990 Soviet arms to Ukranazistan, should we consider the Duda Administration's plans to rearm to be credible?
The "South Korean Abrams" tanks Poland is purchasing are very capable, but what is the delivery schedule? How many of these will Poland really be able to afford?
Will Duda's plans compensate for the arms he already donated, or significantly the strategic order in Eastern Europe?
How friendly can the US and UK be with Duda when they really want to regime change him, and install a woke liberal progressive in his place?