Somalia might once again “Balkanize” if its Southwest State and Jubaland withdraw recognition of the federal government in protest over this policy following Puntland’s precedent earlier this spring in an unrelated dispute since Mogadishu would then either have to back down in a show of impotence to preserve superficial national unity or initiate another civil war that could involve Ethiopia.
Kenya is not yet a major non-nato ally as explained here:
https://kagirison.com/rigathi-gachagua-lamu-gikuyu-somali-jihad-kalenjin-mafia/