Even if Russia has more high-tech equipment to spare, as well as Wagner fighters to send there for handling them and advising their Tatmadaw hosts, it’s unrealistic to expect that this would be a game-changer in the latest phase of Myanmar’s decades-long civil war.
Thank you for that interesting article. (Well series of articles. Interesting to get the Russian perspective.)
What is the likelihood of China intervening? Not only isn’t China as overstretched as Russia is right now militarily, it’s also far more in their zone of interest geographically.
It would also give the PLA some well needed practical experience in war fighting.
Thanks! To your question, it's unlikely in my opinion since they're actually partially partnered with some of the rebels. Also, they risk getting bogged down, embarrassed, and stretched too thin. I don't see them taking those risks. They'd use "economic diplomacy" to retain influence in any new government.
I read some time ago that there was a rebel province (that the army was told to ignore) that was involved in the smuggling of precursor chemicals for fentanyl. Whether they exported the chemicals or imported them to make the drug was unclear but coupled with the fact that the CIA had to abandon its heroin ‘rat line’ in Afghanistan it seems likely that they are involved- fentanyl is a superior product in several ways all of which work to the CIA’s advantage in enabling a new and improved rat line to fund their ‘off the books’ activities. That kind of funding allows for ample bribes- Russia would be well advised to tread delicately in Myanmar. Just my two cents….
The battle area is close to the golden triangle. Lashio is an important town with some Chinese immigrants (been there for hundreds of years) Lashio had rail road and was the terminal point for Republic of China to construct the Yunnan-Burma road, before the British shut it down per Japanese pressure. Per the memoir of a former soldier/officer in the Republic of China who fought a guerilla war there against PLAN during 1949-1953, the geography is complicated, natural barriers a lot. Full of ambush points. Due to traffic difficulties, different tribes, even dialects, mixed in the region. And Burmese army were cruel against local people. As Andrew said, CCP China wants to keep a route to Rangoon no matter who is in power. Who controls the poppy trade is important, and that drug lord must control all important routes to traffic the goods. Therefore, there would be endless conflict. One of the larger faction there definitely has strong tie with CCP China to the point you would frequently see China's flag and local TV has a lot of transplants from China's state-run national TV (CCTV) not sure based on satellite dish or local TV station re-broadcast.
Myanmar? Why is Russia interested in Burma at all? I know the materialist motive, straight from the handy dandy CIA Factbook--Burma natural resources: petroleum, timber, tin, antimony, zinc, copper, tungsten, lead, coal, marble, limestone, precious stones, natural gas, hydropower, arable land.
It's a serious question. I'd think Myanmar is more within the Chinese or Indian sphere of influence than it is with the Russian or American ones.
Thank you for that interesting article. (Well series of articles. Interesting to get the Russian perspective.)
What is the likelihood of China intervening? Not only isn’t China as overstretched as Russia is right now militarily, it’s also far more in their zone of interest geographically.
It would also give the PLA some well needed practical experience in war fighting.
Thanks! To your question, it's unlikely in my opinion since they're actually partially partnered with some of the rebels. Also, they risk getting bogged down, embarrassed, and stretched too thin. I don't see them taking those risks. They'd use "economic diplomacy" to retain influence in any new government.
I read some time ago that there was a rebel province (that the army was told to ignore) that was involved in the smuggling of precursor chemicals for fentanyl. Whether they exported the chemicals or imported them to make the drug was unclear but coupled with the fact that the CIA had to abandon its heroin ‘rat line’ in Afghanistan it seems likely that they are involved- fentanyl is a superior product in several ways all of which work to the CIA’s advantage in enabling a new and improved rat line to fund their ‘off the books’ activities. That kind of funding allows for ample bribes- Russia would be well advised to tread delicately in Myanmar. Just my two cents….
The battle area is close to the golden triangle. Lashio is an important town with some Chinese immigrants (been there for hundreds of years) Lashio had rail road and was the terminal point for Republic of China to construct the Yunnan-Burma road, before the British shut it down per Japanese pressure. Per the memoir of a former soldier/officer in the Republic of China who fought a guerilla war there against PLAN during 1949-1953, the geography is complicated, natural barriers a lot. Full of ambush points. Due to traffic difficulties, different tribes, even dialects, mixed in the region. And Burmese army were cruel against local people. As Andrew said, CCP China wants to keep a route to Rangoon no matter who is in power. Who controls the poppy trade is important, and that drug lord must control all important routes to traffic the goods. Therefore, there would be endless conflict. One of the larger faction there definitely has strong tie with CCP China to the point you would frequently see China's flag and local TV has a lot of transplants from China's state-run national TV (CCTV) not sure based on satellite dish or local TV station re-broadcast.
Myanmar? Why is Russia interested in Burma at all? I know the materialist motive, straight from the handy dandy CIA Factbook--Burma natural resources: petroleum, timber, tin, antimony, zinc, copper, tungsten, lead, coal, marble, limestone, precious stones, natural gas, hydropower, arable land.
It's a serious question. I'd think Myanmar is more within the Chinese or Indian sphere of influence than it is with the Russian or American ones.