Russia must avoid being drawn into the quagmire that its non-state adversaries and their speculative Western allies are hoping to create for it in Mali.
Great article - it's really good to find a reliable de-propagandised news source. Surely Russia has developed a strategy for these encounters as they are transitioning to "strategic confrontation" with the USA ? I know this is obvious but embed Russians/PMC into Malian forces then it is "Russian assistance" and not "Russian initiative" or at least have constant Malian official presence, draw ultra clear parameters. As stated, push hard for renewed peace talks and never stop pushing – actions not words, prove that stability is the goal. In the meantime back-off, Russians have patience to plan long-term, take it on the chin, a bad loss but only one battle in the “war”. Russia has already won in Ukraine, it can do the same for Mali. Indeed Russia will have a lot of this to do as the rogue terrorist state of the USA starts to panic and squirm in its deterioration globally. The USA is hunting for every regional grievance - legitimate or otherwise - that it can distort to its advantage or simply to Russia's disadvantage.
The point of allowing companies like Wagner to operate is to AVOID official presence of Russian military in these countries. I think it is better for Russia to pay Cuba to provide trainers to Mali's military. The next best option is to find one country in a less contentious country willing to accept Russian official trainers to train Mali's forces. Once you have "advisors" embedded in Mali's force, things will get touchy. Given the circumstances and the long term prospect of the West Africa nations, it is probably better that Russia does not put a toe into the water.
Devastating? I don't think there more than 20 bodies that I have seen on the ground, likely dead, and no more than 3 vehicles. And these resources wouldn't have truly helped in any way on the western front. Everything else seems realy spot on.
Great article - it's really good to find a reliable de-propagandised news source. Surely Russia has developed a strategy for these encounters as they are transitioning to "strategic confrontation" with the USA ? I know this is obvious but embed Russians/PMC into Malian forces then it is "Russian assistance" and not "Russian initiative" or at least have constant Malian official presence, draw ultra clear parameters. As stated, push hard for renewed peace talks and never stop pushing – actions not words, prove that stability is the goal. In the meantime back-off, Russians have patience to plan long-term, take it on the chin, a bad loss but only one battle in the “war”. Russia has already won in Ukraine, it can do the same for Mali. Indeed Russia will have a lot of this to do as the rogue terrorist state of the USA starts to panic and squirm in its deterioration globally. The USA is hunting for every regional grievance - legitimate or otherwise - that it can distort to its advantage or simply to Russia's disadvantage.
The point of allowing companies like Wagner to operate is to AVOID official presence of Russian military in these countries. I think it is better for Russia to pay Cuba to provide trainers to Mali's military. The next best option is to find one country in a less contentious country willing to accept Russian official trainers to train Mali's forces. Once you have "advisors" embedded in Mali's force, things will get touchy. Given the circumstances and the long term prospect of the West Africa nations, it is probably better that Russia does not put a toe into the water.
I don't foresee Cuba or anyone else playing a mercenary role in this conflict on Russia's behalf.
If Russia can't manage to help Mali, then Mali might request Turkish assistance.:
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2024/06/07/sadat-the-turkish-wagner-whose-shadow-hangs-over-west-africa_6674134_124.html
Wagner left Mozambique some years back after struggling to succeed there too.
They were then replaced by Rwanda and Southern African regional forces.
But it's premature to speculate about a Russian withdrawal, I don't see that in the cards.
They'll remain committed to their mission but their methods might change.
Russia needs to rethink and readapt because it's operating under flawed assumptions.
Indeed. If a problem can be solved with the help of a close-by neighbor, it is always better than to count on help from far away places.
Devastating? I don't think there more than 20 bodies that I have seen on the ground, likely dead, and no more than 3 vehicles. And these resources wouldn't have truly helped in any way on the western front. Everything else seems realy spot on.
I agree "devastating" is hyperbole.