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I think China's approach is bad for China itself. First it irritates Russia for no obvious gain. Second, it only invites more Western naval ships into the Arctic area, some definitely with electronic monitoring equipment. PLAN has no ability to maintain an escort group through the NSR for the long term. Despite its rapid build-up, PLAN has gotten a full plate from the Eastern China Sea, Taiwan Strait, to Southern China Sea. A ship plus crew cannot simply go into the Arctic area simply as another trip. Rigorous training, sturdy boats, and some serious experiences are needed.

If I were in China's place, I would focus on sending commercial ships, with proper training and equipment, through NSR under the guidance of Russian navigation and perhaps icebreakers as well. And pay the transit fees. But does China still have that big a business prospect with a hostile and poverty-leaning Europe? Coats filled with duck feathers for a winter without NG?

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