President Putin isn’t a “madman”, “monster”, or “mastermind” like many imagine that he is, but is a consummate pragmatist at least as how he sees himself and is therefore unlikely to ever do anything that could be spun as emotional or radical.
A consummate pragmatist? This is the same as a complacent individual who is convinced that he is playing chess while he is actually playing checkers. You mention how long it took for him to launch the special military operation, waiting until the last moment. Reality check: he could have had large chunks of the Ukraine with no resistance in 2014, but his "pragmatism" told him to wait first until the Ukraine had been armed to the teeth by the West. He is no chess master at all. But he thinks he is. When it comes to neutralising Prigozhin and Girkin, he is suddenly the Terminator, but dealing with the West, a mouse-like pragmatist.
And I think that's fair enough if you can get away with it: i.e. public opinion doesn't hurt you.
Any reaction has been 'forced' by the initiators, they're essentially jerking your strings. Seems pretty certain it is still all intended to provoke Russia to unwise escalation.
90% of such military stuff is theatre. It's not going to win or lose the war. Winning the war is what matters. Putin's machinations 'behind the scenes' are probably the best way to go about it.
My own first reaction was that Russia should covertly encourage terrorist groups to blow up the ATACMS manufacturing plant here: lockheed martin atacms manufacturing
I thought that a good idea. But second thoughts I guess it could stir up millions of dumb Americans in entirely the wrong way, making them indignantly want to attack Russia all out, even to nuclear, that's how loony and ill informed they are. Actually meaning no offence when I say that but it just simply is true, isn't it?
So second best: let the foreign bases be taken out the same way, 'by proxy' with full deniability, most especially those in countries where American oligarchs have large interests but governments that would just love to get out from under.
Failing those or similar harmful/harmless histrionics best let Putin get on with the job which is to provide the world with multipolarity, alternative financial systems, alternative communications, alternatives to subjection to American hegemony. He's doing well so far. Keeps his eye on the ball I think.
The situation is that Russia is fighting terrorists from it's own Muslim lands , the recent attack by the Dagestanis being one example. He has a lot on his plate.
I was just reading a suggestion that was false flag. No proof, I think, but they find it very suspicious that the synagogue was empty, had no casualties.
Be that as it may it is just another example of the increasingly widespread incidence of extreme violence from ill-defined or disputable quarters.
Such violence being visited on American bases would suit Russia and Donbas Ukrainians just fine and they would have full deniability.
I'll say Putin has a lot on his plate. This is a masterclass in governance and statesmanship I think, no matter where you look at it from.
I ditto Petr - I very much appreciate you for your reporting and clarity. It provides a much needed voice to better understand the legacy (UK in my case) reporting 😊🙏
President Putin is not a madmam, he likes to do BJ all the time to his esteemed colleagues in the West. Completely the opposite of what Israel will do...
Just how much cope can a person really imbibe? Why are the Dnieper bridges not destroyed? Doesn't it clearly indicate a pro-Western slant of Putin's agenda? Weakening Russia prior to an American nuclear strike?
Putin is still tiptoeing trough the tulips . Probably after a nuclear attack on Moscow he will seat down for a dialogue with his western partners . Pragmatist ? No. He is a coward .
Putin is more afraid of nato retaliation than it appears; that’s why he hasn’t retaliated yet. Dc knows this which is why DC is upping the salami slicing of prior Russian “red lines”; until the battlefield begins to turn against Russia, Putin rationally will not escalate so Russia will continue to see further costs
Unfortunately, the interviewees on the Judge Napolitano site lie all day long. McGregor has predicted dozens of Russian offensives that haven't happened. He's now saying that 600,000 Ukrainians have died compared to 50,000 Russians - laughable figures.
Putin blundered into this war and now he has a major dilemma on his hands. For years he ignored the Donbass quagmire , he must have known that he was being goaded into a quagmire. After some years a plan was formulated that looked a little like the successful annexation of Crimea but his intel was terrible to say the least. The war was only supposed to be a one month SMO where Ukrainans would stage a Russian backed coup and all would be back to normal with Russia in control again. Medevchuk was given tens of millions to pay for the coup , where it went no body knows but when the Russians arrived outside of Kiev they were met with gunfire not roses. Since then the entire operation has spiralled out of control and it has escalated into a full blown war , not a simple SMO. Putin would like to bring the war to an end but that would require the relinquishment of the territory he has annexed. That is not possible for Putin it would be the end of his support in Russia. So he is stuck in a situation where he can't retreat and if he escalates the West will also escalate and there will be no end to that except a major all out European war. The Russian people are mad and want payback which is understandable but is it worth it? Do they want an exchange with NATO? For what? What exactly is this war about at this point in time? Other than payback what do the Russian people want from this war? Ukraine wants it's territory back , they have a clear goal but what exactly is Russia fighting for? If the retention of the annexed Ukrainian territory means total war , is it worth it? There is no chance of either side winning militarily in the foreseeable future. If Russia attempts to take all of Ukrainian territory up to the Polish border the conflict will escalate , Poland will not except a common border with Russia. If they did take all of the Ukraine they would then be stuck in a decades long insurgency in Ukraine. I can't see a satisfactory way out for either side . So Putin must sit on his hands and remain stuck this quagmire for the foreseeable future. The big question for the Russians is , what are we fighting for, what is our goal? The original goals of the SMO were obviously just propaganda points, the Ukranians did not want to be "liberated" from Nazis. Now NATO has been completely rejuvenated and is a bigger threat to Russia than ever. Putin's only hope may be to wait and hope that Trump will get elected and can give Russia what it wants. Trumps supporters are Putin supporters so maybe that might happen but the entire NATO/US military political complex that backs the Ukrainian side will be difficult to push aside , that is if he lives long enough to get to Election Day.
Jeff Childers of Coffee & Covid noticed a pattern a while ago that certain events - industrial fires, for instance - in Russia seemed to be followed by similar events in the US. I haven't seen him comment on that lately. He suspected that these were retaliatory. Interesting theory. Maybe you've commented on the same thing and I've missed it.
A consummate pragmatist? This is the same as a complacent individual who is convinced that he is playing chess while he is actually playing checkers. You mention how long it took for him to launch the special military operation, waiting until the last moment. Reality check: he could have had large chunks of the Ukraine with no resistance in 2014, but his "pragmatism" told him to wait first until the Ukraine had been armed to the teeth by the West. He is no chess master at all. But he thinks he is. When it comes to neutralising Prigozhin and Girkin, he is suddenly the Terminator, but dealing with the West, a mouse-like pragmatist.
Thank you . The first man who is not afraid to say what he sees .
Great and timely article as always - I thank you for your continued coverage.
And I think that's fair enough if you can get away with it: i.e. public opinion doesn't hurt you.
Any reaction has been 'forced' by the initiators, they're essentially jerking your strings. Seems pretty certain it is still all intended to provoke Russia to unwise escalation.
90% of such military stuff is theatre. It's not going to win or lose the war. Winning the war is what matters. Putin's machinations 'behind the scenes' are probably the best way to go about it.
My own first reaction was that Russia should covertly encourage terrorist groups to blow up the ATACMS manufacturing plant here: lockheed martin atacms manufacturing
https://earth.google.com/web/search/lockheed+martin+camden+ar/@33.62783575,-92.70688455,40.67556588a,4502.12248763d,35y,0h,0t,0r/data=CigiJgokCSchXJcsO0BAETNRbiNDOEBAGYkee-R26FjAIU_Yx2Tp61jAOgMKATA
I thought that a good idea. But second thoughts I guess it could stir up millions of dumb Americans in entirely the wrong way, making them indignantly want to attack Russia all out, even to nuclear, that's how loony and ill informed they are. Actually meaning no offence when I say that but it just simply is true, isn't it?
So second best: let the foreign bases be taken out the same way, 'by proxy' with full deniability, most especially those in countries where American oligarchs have large interests but governments that would just love to get out from under.
Failing those or similar harmful/harmless histrionics best let Putin get on with the job which is to provide the world with multipolarity, alternative financial systems, alternative communications, alternatives to subjection to American hegemony. He's doing well so far. Keeps his eye on the ball I think.
The situation is that Russia is fighting terrorists from it's own Muslim lands , the recent attack by the Dagestanis being one example. He has a lot on his plate.
I was just reading a suggestion that was false flag. No proof, I think, but they find it very suspicious that the synagogue was empty, had no casualties.
Be that as it may it is just another example of the increasingly widespread incidence of extreme violence from ill-defined or disputable quarters.
Such violence being visited on American bases would suit Russia and Donbas Ukrainians just fine and they would have full deniability.
I'll say Putin has a lot on his plate. This is a masterclass in governance and statesmanship I think, no matter where you look at it from.
A "masterclass" , really?
I ditto Petr - I very much appreciate you for your reporting and clarity. It provides a much needed voice to better understand the legacy (UK in my case) reporting 😊🙏
Yeah? When ? Where ? To whom ? As they said . 'Hey Putin do your thing or get of the pot .'
Oh, by the way, why is the Kremlin issuing so called "red lines" which are regularly crossed by the West then do nothing? Its clownish!
President Putin is not a madmam, he likes to do BJ all the time to his esteemed colleagues in the West. Completely the opposite of what Israel will do...
Just how much cope can a person really imbibe? Why are the Dnieper bridges not destroyed? Doesn't it clearly indicate a pro-Western slant of Putin's agenda? Weakening Russia prior to an American nuclear strike?
Putin is still tiptoeing trough the tulips . Probably after a nuclear attack on Moscow he will seat down for a dialogue with his western partners . Pragmatist ? No. He is a coward .
Putin is more afraid of nato retaliation than it appears; that’s why he hasn’t retaliated yet. Dc knows this which is why DC is upping the salami slicing of prior Russian “red lines”; until the battlefield begins to turn against Russia, Putin rationally will not escalate so Russia will continue to see further costs
As Lavrov said there will be a response
people interviewed on the Judge Napolitano site, predicted this result this result and they are worth listening to
Unfortunately, the interviewees on the Judge Napolitano site lie all day long. McGregor has predicted dozens of Russian offensives that haven't happened. He's now saying that 600,000 Ukrainians have died compared to 50,000 Russians - laughable figures.
US propaganda. NATO started this war in 2014.
https://slavlandchronicles.substack.com/p/fake-news-moscow-did-not-shoot-a?utm_source=substack&publication_id=795903&post_id=146002230&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=false&r=1p6bxy&triedRedirect=true
Putin blundered into this war and now he has a major dilemma on his hands. For years he ignored the Donbass quagmire , he must have known that he was being goaded into a quagmire. After some years a plan was formulated that looked a little like the successful annexation of Crimea but his intel was terrible to say the least. The war was only supposed to be a one month SMO where Ukrainans would stage a Russian backed coup and all would be back to normal with Russia in control again. Medevchuk was given tens of millions to pay for the coup , where it went no body knows but when the Russians arrived outside of Kiev they were met with gunfire not roses. Since then the entire operation has spiralled out of control and it has escalated into a full blown war , not a simple SMO. Putin would like to bring the war to an end but that would require the relinquishment of the territory he has annexed. That is not possible for Putin it would be the end of his support in Russia. So he is stuck in a situation where he can't retreat and if he escalates the West will also escalate and there will be no end to that except a major all out European war. The Russian people are mad and want payback which is understandable but is it worth it? Do they want an exchange with NATO? For what? What exactly is this war about at this point in time? Other than payback what do the Russian people want from this war? Ukraine wants it's territory back , they have a clear goal but what exactly is Russia fighting for? If the retention of the annexed Ukrainian territory means total war , is it worth it? There is no chance of either side winning militarily in the foreseeable future. If Russia attempts to take all of Ukrainian territory up to the Polish border the conflict will escalate , Poland will not except a common border with Russia. If they did take all of the Ukraine they would then be stuck in a decades long insurgency in Ukraine. I can't see a satisfactory way out for either side . So Putin must sit on his hands and remain stuck this quagmire for the foreseeable future. The big question for the Russians is , what are we fighting for, what is our goal? The original goals of the SMO were obviously just propaganda points, the Ukranians did not want to be "liberated" from Nazis. Now NATO has been completely rejuvenated and is a bigger threat to Russia than ever. Putin's only hope may be to wait and hope that Trump will get elected and can give Russia what it wants. Trumps supporters are Putin supporters so maybe that might happen but the entire NATO/US military political complex that backs the Ukrainian side will be difficult to push aside , that is if he lives long enough to get to Election Day.
We could use less fake news and pols as constrained and logical as Putin.
What was his logic for starting this war?
Jeff Childers of Coffee & Covid noticed a pattern a while ago that certain events - industrial fires, for instance - in Russia seemed to be followed by similar events in the US. I haven't seen him comment on that lately. He suspected that these were retaliatory. Interesting theory. Maybe you've commented on the same thing and I've missed it.