6 Comments
5 hrs agoLiked by Andrew Korybko

"...China is either more trusting of or naïve about the West than Russia is, which is an interesting observation to reflect on."

Yes, that IS interesting. Thanks for the insight!

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China's spine is much softer than those of Russia. National characters aside, there are various practical constraints: (1) Russia can survive well when totally walled up. China is far from self sufficient in natural resources. Even Iran can hold on longer than China as long as land communication with Russia is maintained.

(2) Russia has room, a lot of room, to encourage birth. War casualty is what they are afraid of. China has too much population. Any small perturbation in international trade is enough to cause severe domestic problems. US tariff alone is a large enough perturbation.

(3) China has no concern if a foreign war causes a lot of casualties, but the war has to happen along Chinese border. US intervention on Taiwan would be a God-Send to CCP China. China may lose Taiwan and many heads will roll, but the CCP party can solve some big domestic problems and get a new lease of life for at least another 20 years. Korean War and Vietnam War served that purpose as well. However, if the war is overseas, CCP reaps no benefit. Taiwan is both a weakness for CCP China, and a chance to cut the tail and live another day.

(4) It is too bad that Mr. Putin and his advisors did not see through China in 2022 or earlier, when China's weakness had already been more than obvious. Had Russia avoided this strategic debacle, Russia can have more room for navigation now when Russia gets less concerned about China. However, China has to comply to Russian pressure as much as complying to the West. The classic Chinese slang for China's national power in late 19th century was big-yet-weak, sort of similar to paper-tiger.

(5) Many people still think the key strength of China is its economy and manufacturing. I think the key weakness of China is its economy and manufacturing, although its military is not to be overlooked. A bit like North Korea. China's economy is highly fragile, and China's manufacturing is nothing without energy and raw materials, yet both depend on imports. During WW2, China's agriculture economy allowed wide spread regeneration of combat power, albeit missing on the weapon side. Modern China has a mirage economy. Beneath that great looking castle, there are a lot of sands (and a real monster, the CCP).

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Monsters, monsters everywhere!

Thanks for your view.

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7 hrs agoLiked by Andrew Korybko

China likely seeks to close the gap between it and Europe, especially on tangential issues like this, for trade reasons.

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Of Africa's many problems is the West's sneaking interference Live Arica alone to find her own way

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I have high respect for China and her elites but at times they seem so hopelessly naive (or blinded by their business greed) that it really hurts to watch it. At times I have the impression that for all the strategic thinking that they have re their economy and society, they have almost none when it comes to global affairs and strategic threats to them in the global arena.

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