South Korea’s Unsuccessful Self-Coup Could Complicate America’s “Pivot (Back) To Asia”
Yoon is hawkish on North Korea, is considering arming Ukraine against Russia, and went along with the US’ plans to organize a trilateral alliance between them and Japan, but all this might change if he’s replaced by the opposition after early elections, thus complicating the US’ “Pivot (back) to Asia”.
The world is trying to make sense of South Korea’s six-hour -long period of martial law that was imposed on Tuesday night until early Wednesday morning local time. It was the first time that the country experienced such since 1980. President Yoon Suk Yeol claimed that the opposition was conniving to overthrow him as part of an anti-state plot that he connected to North Korea. They control parliament, had tried to impeach him multiple times already, and were obstructing his legislative efforts.
This same opposition then raced to the National Assembly and voted to lift martial law. The military then stopped trying to storm the premises once that motion passed, and Yoon relented after he and his Cabinet complied with their demand. While it was still in effect, some on social media lent credence to his claims of an anti-state plot, while others speculated that the US had something to do with this even though a National Security Council spokesperson told Axios that they didn’t receive any advance notice.
There are now calls for his resignation and to even charge him with treason. His political career is likely over. Yoon’s wife, Kim Keon-hee, might also go down with him due to her numerous scandals that he refused to investigate. Readers can learn more about them here and here. In hindsight, it compellingly appears as though Yoon wanted to stage a self-coup on predictable national security pretexts connected to North Korea out of desperation to keep himself in power and his wife out of trouble.
The implications of this hypothesis are many but what follows are the most immediate:
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1. Even Traditional Allies Aren’t Fully Under America’s Control
It’s understandable why some speculated during the height of this crisis that the US had something to do with it since South Korea is one of the US’ longest allies over which it wields enormous influence, but Yoon’s arguably rogue actions show that even traditional allies aren’t fully under America’s control.
2. The World Is Reminded Of South Korea’s Elite Political Corruption
Few outside the country know that “half of all living former South Korean presidents are now in prison” since South Korea’s international reputation prioritizes its economic strength and cultural appeal, but it’s six-hour-long period of martial law reminded the world of its elite political corruption.
3. The Defense Minister Is Either Equally Corrupt Or Knows Something
It’s now confirmed that Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun personally proposed martial law to his former schoolmate Yoon, so either he’s equally corrupt or perhaps there’s more than meets the eye to Yoon’s accusation of North Korean influence over the opposition, even if that doesn’t justify what he did.
4. The New Cold War Isn’t Really About Democracy vs. Dictatorship
What happened also debunks the false narrative pushed by the US about the New Cold War being about democracy vs. dictatorship since the unsuccessful self-coup in one of America’s traditional allies shows that anti-democratic and pro-dictatorship tendencies are alive and well in the US’ sphere of influence.
5. Yoon’s Fall Might Complicate The US’ “Pivot (Back) To Asia”
Yoon is hawkish on North Korea, is considering arming Ukraine, and went along with the US’ plans to organize a trilateral alliance between them and Japan, but all this might change if he’s impeached and the opposition replaces him after early elections, thus complicating the US’ “Pivot (back) to Asia”.
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More clarity will be forthcoming, but for now, it does indeed appear as though Yoon cooked up an unsuccessful self-coup in cahoots with the Defense Minister. The most important consequence of their actions is that the US might now be forced to change aspects of its “Pivot (back) to Asia” if the opposition soon comes to power as expected and reforms South Korea’s foreign policy. This, much more than the ignominy that those two now face at home, might therefore be their longest-lasting legacy.
Goon Yoon soon doom. It translates in South Korean to Yoon is a US Goon and will soon be doomed. Andrew leaves no global political turmoil uncovered like Superman. He is everywhere intrepid. lol My geopolitical worldview has expanded because of it.
One wonders if the US had a hand, much like its revealed hidden-hand in the matter of Imran Kahn. And yet it hardly seems to me that American risk/reward calculations would promote this kind of stab in the dark by Yoon.
The dynamic that Yoon illustrates is the ability of hawkish pols and ideologues to sneak their foreign-policy hawkishness into office via an election that focuses almost entirely on emotive domestic issues. That's what happened in the 2022 South Korean election.
Yoon's US-sponsored pro-Japan policy does not have majority support. Nor, really, does his aggressive inclination to stir things up with North Korea. And 80% of South Koreans in a recent poll opposed South Korea getting itself involved in Ukraine by shipping weapons/munitions to the Ukrainians.
US-backed South Korean "conservatives" have repeatedly been successful bringing their aggressive policy preferences through the back door. And each time, as South Koreans become aware of the attempts to implement them, they mobilize in opposition.
It once again showcases that weird brand of world leader whose weird ideology is centered around submission to and promotion of US global primacy against both popular will and any conceivable definition of national interest.