Meh… While I feel for the Kurds, they made their bed and now have to lie in it.
They were encouraged, by Russia amongst others, to make a deal with Assad. Instead they chose to get in beds with the Americans. Despite knowing how that usually ends.
Maybe it was greed for oil money that blinded them, but they have nobody to blame but themselves.
The Kurds may indeed have taken some wrong decisions, but I shudder at the thought what awaits them when the Turks and the "moderate rebels" will have entered their villages. I hope that the Americans will not let their allies down this time. This is a matter of humanity, not of geopolitical considerations whatsoever.
The Kurds continue to suffer from political whiplash: “she loves me, she loves me not…”. America needs to decide whether it’s only money or are there ethical considerations to which we must pay attention.
More like "I love her, why won't she love me back after all I did for her, maybe one more extravagant gesture of selfless love will do it for real this time!"
The priority for the Biden administration, and also for Trump it would seem, is and will remain Israel. That means, willing or not, support for its Greater Israel project.
If (or when?) a fight between Israel and HTS will break out, the US will want to support it and the easiest way will be with another front against the HTS by its SDF proxies. So they could still turn out useful, it might be early to dump them.
West Papua will ironically have a country before Kurdistan. Hell, East Timor became a country defying all odds.
West Papuans at least know the winning side through supporting Russians against Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kurds can't even settle on any strategic decision. They lack a comprehensive philosophy and ideology.
Can't understand turkey behaviour. if it really has problem with kurds,it should have cooperated with syria and iraq governments . So,i think turkey is doing US bidding.
I fear for Yemen and then iraq as syria is finished
4 weeks is a long time - the Biden administration could collapse the support for the Kurds and then grant themselves presidential pardon. There is nothing hindering them within this time frame.
You can only charge a price if you would otherwise stay on the sidelines, or be even against it. If you are actively pursuing a specific policy with regards to Syria - like Erdogan - you may need to pay a price. After all, Vilayet Aleppo and Vilayet Sham (Damaskus) were integral parts of the Ottoman empire...
It beggars belief that nobody in Foggy Bottom, nobody in Ankara, nobody in Jerusalem bothered to game out "what happens when we win?" two weeks ago.
Erdogan agreed to rid Washington and Jerusalem of the Syrian state. To do so, he demanded the two Vilayets you mentioned, and a free hand agains the Kurds.
None of this requires any great leaps of imagination.
If you look at Russian-Turkish affairs 1917-1924, they were not the same all the time. In an early phase, Revolutionary Russia came to help Turks against the Western Allies. After all, the Western Allies were pestering Revolutionary Russia too. Then, when the Western Allies interference was dealt with, the Russians kicked the Turks out of Central Asia. Pan-Turanism and all that came to an end. Some Pan-Turanists fled to Berlin, and some of them were then dispatched by the Armenian diaspora.
So just because you were allies 1917-1921, doesn't mean that you stayed allies thereafter.
I am just writing that many coalitions are temporary, and when situations become more stable, these coalitions go away. Just as 100 years ago.
In 1917-1924 the Turkish state was interested to remove the Allies and the Greek Minority from the heartland of Anatolia. In addition, the collapse of the tsarist rule after 1917 opened up the Turkish-speaking Central Asia to Turkish influence.
The ancient Kurdistan does have a suitable basis to be an independent country, even in modern standards, due to the oil reserve in its region. However, in today's international politics, the prospect for an independent Kurdish state is bad. Even if Turkiye backs off and allows a portion of Kurdish area to go independent, Kurds will not stop there: they will want more land inside Turkie and they will encourage Kurds under the rule of other regimes to rise. Given the proximity of Armenia to this region, NATO meddling in Armenia may have an impact on the Kurdish situation as well. However, my understanding of geography in this area is really bad. Maybe mountains would block most such traffic.
Meh… While I feel for the Kurds, they made their bed and now have to lie in it.
They were encouraged, by Russia amongst others, to make a deal with Assad. Instead they chose to get in beds with the Americans. Despite knowing how that usually ends.
Maybe it was greed for oil money that blinded them, but they have nobody to blame but themselves.
The Kurds may indeed have taken some wrong decisions, but I shudder at the thought what awaits them when the Turks and the "moderate rebels" will have entered their villages. I hope that the Americans will not let their allies down this time. This is a matter of humanity, not of geopolitical considerations whatsoever.
The Kurds continue to suffer from political whiplash: “she loves me, she loves me not…”. America needs to decide whether it’s only money or are there ethical considerations to which we must pay attention.
More like "I love her, why won't she love me back after all I did for her, maybe one more extravagant gesture of selfless love will do it for real this time!"
When has the US ever been swayed by ethical considerations?
I have no problem with that. They get what they deserve.
The priority for the Biden administration, and also for Trump it would seem, is and will remain Israel. That means, willing or not, support for its Greater Israel project.
If (or when?) a fight between Israel and HTS will break out, the US will want to support it and the easiest way will be with another front against the HTS by its SDF proxies. So they could still turn out useful, it might be early to dump them.
Exactly, that is their only consideration.
West Papua will ironically have a country before Kurdistan. Hell, East Timor became a country defying all odds.
West Papuans at least know the winning side through supporting Russians against Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kurds can't even settle on any strategic decision. They lack a comprehensive philosophy and ideology.
The kurds backed the wrong horse the us will abandon them to their fate. And this will be the end of the Kurt's
Can't understand turkey behaviour. if it really has problem with kurds,it should have cooperated with syria and iraq governments . So,i think turkey is doing US bidding.
I fear for Yemen and then iraq as syria is finished
4 weeks is a long time - the Biden administration could collapse the support for the Kurds and then grant themselves presidential pardon. There is nothing hindering them within this time frame.
My admittedly straight SWAG is that this was part of the price Erdogan charged.
You can only charge a price if you would otherwise stay on the sidelines, or be even against it. If you are actively pursuing a specific policy with regards to Syria - like Erdogan - you may need to pay a price. After all, Vilayet Aleppo and Vilayet Sham (Damaskus) were integral parts of the Ottoman empire...
It beggars belief that nobody in Foggy Bottom, nobody in Ankara, nobody in Jerusalem bothered to game out "what happens when we win?" two weeks ago.
Erdogan agreed to rid Washington and Jerusalem of the Syrian state. To do so, he demanded the two Vilayets you mentioned, and a free hand agains the Kurds.
None of this requires any great leaps of imagination.
If you look at Russian-Turkish affairs 1917-1924, they were not the same all the time. In an early phase, Revolutionary Russia came to help Turks against the Western Allies. After all, the Western Allies were pestering Revolutionary Russia too. Then, when the Western Allies interference was dealt with, the Russians kicked the Turks out of Central Asia. Pan-Turanism and all that came to an end. Some Pan-Turanists fled to Berlin, and some of them were then dispatched by the Armenian diaspora.
So just because you were allies 1917-1921, doesn't mean that you stayed allies thereafter.
Turkey did not invade Syria in 1924. More like two weeks ago.
If you think that there was no planning with Washington and Israel, no division of spoils, then you are truly grasping at straws.
I am just writing that many coalitions are temporary, and when situations become more stable, these coalitions go away. Just as 100 years ago.
In 1917-1924 the Turkish state was interested to remove the Allies and the Greek Minority from the heartland of Anatolia. In addition, the collapse of the tsarist rule after 1917 opened up the Turkish-speaking Central Asia to Turkish influence.
You are grasping at straws, here. Sorry.
The ancient Kurdistan does have a suitable basis to be an independent country, even in modern standards, due to the oil reserve in its region. However, in today's international politics, the prospect for an independent Kurdish state is bad. Even if Turkiye backs off and allows a portion of Kurdish area to go independent, Kurds will not stop there: they will want more land inside Turkie and they will encourage Kurds under the rule of other regimes to rise. Given the proximity of Armenia to this region, NATO meddling in Armenia may have an impact on the Kurdish situation as well. However, my understanding of geography in this area is really bad. Maybe mountains would block most such traffic.
Presumably Biden will delay any decision for another 4 weeks and then hand over the worst possible mess to Trump.