Forthcoming developments might lead to Germany and/or Poland, where over two million of them collectively reside, either encouraging their return or incentivizing them to stay.
Do you consider that migratory trends and the demographic crisis are being used as a geopolitical/geoeconomic tool by the American establishment?
It is true that there is a clear trend towards greater development = lower birth rate, but it is also true that the birth rate can be altered through multiple economic, political and social tools too.
Yes, and I'd recommend reading Ivy League scholar Kelly M. Greenhill's work on what she terms "Weapons of Mass Migration". Here's a summarized version of her book that she published at the Naval Postgraduate School in 2010:
The reality is that I started thinking about this issue when I heard the CEO of Blackrock talk about how positive depopulation is.
After giving it some thought I saw that the big beneficiary in the long term is once again the Anglo-Germanic axis.
While many countries will lose the ability to insubordinate due to smaller economies of scale, countries that have managed to develop a good part of the technological peak will have a greater advantage. This is without counting the large population centers that will be created.
I am Spanish, and a good part of our emigration ends up in countries like Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Ireland, etc. For now we survive thanks to human capital from Hispanic countries and some from Africa, but in the long term that will end.
That said, thank you for your analysis and all my support for Russia. One of the great hopes against the Anglo-Saxon (USA) global hegemony. Without you, China and some other countries, there would be no hope left.
When the Russians establish an orderly peace and constitutional government resumes, Ukraine will quickly be repopulated by every Ukrainian who can reach it.
Absent a bleak future of austerity under a generational debt to Blackrock and its henchmen, who can doubt the Ukraine will thrive? Do not forget that Zelensky is illegally usurping the office of president, and has no authority to be selling off Ukraine or feeding its young men to the fires.
1. Zelenskii's words are just a pretext for more military aid. If Zelenskii had the ability to call the refugees back from europe, he would have done so a long time ago, as the Ukrainian miltiary desperately needs warm live bodies.
2. Nobody of influence and authority cares about euopean birthrates, or what the consequences of those birthrates will be in 20 years.
One would think the EU could find prostitutes, pimps, drug dealers, bank robbers, and related gun dealers from those parts of Africa, South America, and Western Asia that they've fucked up too. What's so special about Ukraine labour, is it extra stupid?
If they had a choice, Germans would exchange (take in) a Ukranian for 3 Syrians or 10 Afgans any time. If Ukranians are given right incentives they stick to their job, integrate well and not known for excessive naughtiness.
" The end effect could very well be that Germany peacefully rises as the next European hegemon at the expense of Poland’s long-term national interests. "
So Poland should save itself by adopting the same suicidal strategies like Germany ? Who cared if Germany becomes the "dominant" power ? Its slated to be a Muslim / African majority shithole in a few short years. It will neve be a powerhouse of anything again. Poland should take Germany's example and do the opposite of everything Germany has done.
Ever gowning populations are a suicidal myth, just like the notion of ever going profits. Pure insanity. I'd rather live in a homogenous reasonably populated country as supposed to a crowded multi cultural cesspool.
I cannot speak for Ukrainians in Gernany or Poland but I can speak for Ukrainian "Refugees" in Switzerland.
Despite the privileges granted to them - including free access to the labor market and guaranteed motoriously high Swiss salaries - less than 20 percent have been integrated in the workforce since the beginning of the special operations.
More recently, there has been a huge influx of "Ukrainians" of dubious origins. Afghanis come to mind, also Syrians and Africansn but Gypsies from Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. form the Bulk.
The situation in Germany is probably very similar.
Apropos Cheap Labor:
A huge and expensive German SUV pulls over into a Parking lot. With a UA licence plate. The driver jumps out of the car and strides past the paypost. A traffic warden confronts him:
"I may look like a traffic warden, but I am a good Fairy. I grant you three wishes."
The Ukro says: " A large villa in the best Area of Berlin" - granted.
" A large yacht in the Mediterranean" - granted.
After some thought, the Ukro says: "A German Passport" - bang - granted.
To his surprise however, the Villa and the yacht disappeared. Even his SUV was gone. Enraged, he asked the Fairy for an explanation.
The Fairy: "Ah, my friend, you are now a German. Germans go to work!"
"...more grassroots pressure upon EU governments to encourage those refugees to return."
Look at it from the demographic point of view of governments such as the UK's: if they have to choose between allowing more 'boat people' (economic migrants disguised as political refugees, many from states destroyed by NATO, or using other means for 'virtue' point scoring) in, or using far less obviously alien elements like Ukrainians, to do the jobs their own populations are no longer willing nor capable of doing, which would you have thought preferable? Anybody for a spot of Sisyphean boulder rolling? Sisyphus gets behind Poland's demographic boulder!
Great stack, thank you, I admit an angle of this I hadn’t much considered, the what will happen to them all afterwards (after exactly what is of course also another question still).
Hi Andrew,
Do you consider that migratory trends and the demographic crisis are being used as a geopolitical/geoeconomic tool by the American establishment?
It is true that there is a clear trend towards greater development = lower birth rate, but it is also true that the birth rate can be altered through multiple economic, political and social tools too.
Yes, and I'd recommend reading Ivy League scholar Kelly M. Greenhill's work on what she terms "Weapons of Mass Migration". Here's a summarized version of her book that she published at the Naval Postgraduate School in 2010:
https://calhoun.nps.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/7f61990f-9cca-4938-9863-dd49f52e8510/content
She expanded her ideas into a book that was published in 2016:
https://www.amazon.com/Weapons-Mass-Migration-Displacement-Coercion/dp/1501704362
I bought it and skimmed through it a few years back. I hope to one day read it in full.
Thank you very much, I'll take a look at it.
The reality is that I started thinking about this issue when I heard the CEO of Blackrock talk about how positive depopulation is.
After giving it some thought I saw that the big beneficiary in the long term is once again the Anglo-Germanic axis.
While many countries will lose the ability to insubordinate due to smaller economies of scale, countries that have managed to develop a good part of the technological peak will have a greater advantage. This is without counting the large population centers that will be created.
I am Spanish, and a good part of our emigration ends up in countries like Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Ireland, etc. For now we survive thanks to human capital from Hispanic countries and some from Africa, but in the long term that will end.
That said, thank you for your analysis and all my support for Russia. One of the great hopes against the Anglo-Saxon (USA) global hegemony. Without you, China and some other countries, there would be no hope left.
"I hope to one day read it in full."
Yeah, me too!
When the Russians establish an orderly peace and constitutional government resumes, Ukraine will quickly be repopulated by every Ukrainian who can reach it.
Absent a bleak future of austerity under a generational debt to Blackrock and its henchmen, who can doubt the Ukraine will thrive? Do not forget that Zelensky is illegally usurping the office of president, and has no authority to be selling off Ukraine or feeding its young men to the fires.
1. Zelenskii's words are just a pretext for more military aid. If Zelenskii had the ability to call the refugees back from europe, he would have done so a long time ago, as the Ukrainian miltiary desperately needs warm live bodies.
2. Nobody of influence and authority cares about euopean birthrates, or what the consequences of those birthrates will be in 20 years.
One would think the EU could find prostitutes, pimps, drug dealers, bank robbers, and related gun dealers from those parts of Africa, South America, and Western Asia that they've fucked up too. What's so special about Ukraine labour, is it extra stupid?
Ukrainians are *white*, silly.
When I live there, some expats called it "White Africa".
If they had a choice, Germans would exchange (take in) a Ukranian for 3 Syrians or 10 Afgans any time. If Ukranians are given right incentives they stick to their job, integrate well and not known for excessive naughtiness.
" The end effect could very well be that Germany peacefully rises as the next European hegemon at the expense of Poland’s long-term national interests. "
So Poland should save itself by adopting the same suicidal strategies like Germany ? Who cared if Germany becomes the "dominant" power ? Its slated to be a Muslim / African majority shithole in a few short years. It will neve be a powerhouse of anything again. Poland should take Germany's example and do the opposite of everything Germany has done.
Ever gowning populations are a suicidal myth, just like the notion of ever going profits. Pure insanity. I'd rather live in a homogenous reasonably populated country as supposed to a crowded multi cultural cesspool.
Why would the EU need Ukrainian labor when they millions of newly arrived, young, in shape males, just sitting around ?
I cannot speak for Ukrainians in Gernany or Poland but I can speak for Ukrainian "Refugees" in Switzerland.
Despite the privileges granted to them - including free access to the labor market and guaranteed motoriously high Swiss salaries - less than 20 percent have been integrated in the workforce since the beginning of the special operations.
More recently, there has been a huge influx of "Ukrainians" of dubious origins. Afghanis come to mind, also Syrians and Africansn but Gypsies from Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. form the Bulk.
The situation in Germany is probably very similar.
Apropos Cheap Labor:
A huge and expensive German SUV pulls over into a Parking lot. With a UA licence plate. The driver jumps out of the car and strides past the paypost. A traffic warden confronts him:
"I may look like a traffic warden, but I am a good Fairy. I grant you three wishes."
The Ukro says: " A large villa in the best Area of Berlin" - granted.
" A large yacht in the Mediterranean" - granted.
After some thought, the Ukro says: "A German Passport" - bang - granted.
To his surprise however, the Villa and the yacht disappeared. Even his SUV was gone. Enraged, he asked the Fairy for an explanation.
The Fairy: "Ah, my friend, you are now a German. Germans go to work!"
"...more grassroots pressure upon EU governments to encourage those refugees to return."
Look at it from the demographic point of view of governments such as the UK's: if they have to choose between allowing more 'boat people' (economic migrants disguised as political refugees, many from states destroyed by NATO, or using other means for 'virtue' point scoring) in, or using far less obviously alien elements like Ukrainians, to do the jobs their own populations are no longer willing nor capable of doing, which would you have thought preferable? Anybody for a spot of Sisyphean boulder rolling? Sisyphus gets behind Poland's demographic boulder!
Not less alien, but more intelligent and prone to work.
Great stack, thank you, I admit an angle of this I hadn’t much considered, the what will happen to them all afterwards (after exactly what is of course also another question still).
Short answer: the initial crowds protesting in 2014 were hoping to be able to emigrate.
Good point, often ignored or 'forgotten'.