This piece will identify the five ways in which the past year completely changed Russian grand strategy, beginning with the special operation and ending with China replacing that country’s prior role as the one that’s now actively exploring the parameters of a New Détente with the West. It’s admittedly far from a comprehensive list but is intended to pinpoint the top variables that resulted in recalibrating this Great Power’s approach to the global systemic transition, after which some additional insight will be shared.
The substack author is right, 2022 has dramatically altered the way Russia will approach its geopolitical goals in the future. Because it has to change them. Because the invasion of Ukraine is a disaster.
The czar and his court are scrambling because they have to, and any port in a storm. The new grand vision is -- over time -- create a "third pole of tripolarity" that is built from the combination of Russian/Iran/India? Wow, what a fall from grace in just one year's time.
Russia envisioned itself as a "pole" unto itself, and this past year has laid that lie (thread)bare. The weaknesses economically and in all realms of soft-power were obvious to all, but the impression of Ru military power has been exposed as an unjustified holdover from Soviet times.
Can an alignment with Ru/Iran/India be a co-equal counterweight to the US? China? The EU?
What do the geopolitical goals and national values of these three pretend "allies" have in common? What do the people of these three "allies" have in common? Maybe some Russians and Iranians can bond over "Death to America" chants? Maybe India and Iran can bond over hating the same Sunni Muslim countries? The Soviets were a military arsenal for India at a delicate time in that country's history, but how long can that nostalgia effectively masquerade as an ongoing compatibility between these dramatically different countries?
Russia could have played between the EU and China, leveraging its other Central Asian relationships as a third axis of trade, and made trillions. But their "brilliant" leadership decided to invade Ukraine. So now it's Hail Mary time.
Nord Stream 1 & 2 were nice, but nah. Let's throw all our marbles in a much longer pipeline ove ra much less stable region, to a partner (India) that will pay much less for our (now) more expensively transported resources.
Geopolitically, Russia's transition to Canada has been dramatically accelerated by the disastrous Ukraine invasion. If only the Russian elites could embrace that and provide the fantastic standard of living to their people that Canada's incredibly enviable role in the world allows it to provide Canadians. Sorry Russians, more misery awaits because the czar wants an Empire.
The author seems to downplay the profound strategic partnership of China and Russia when he exaggerates the importance of playing off so-called dependence on China with India, Iran, et al. Multipolarity implies good relations with these other countries, of which Iran is definitely on Empire's hit list. However, no alliance on the planet right now is as solid as the Sino-Russo partnership.
Point 5. Buying Time sounds right. Biden's various puppet masters are pulling him this way and that as their pollsters are looking for a strategy to get them through the next 22 months and hopefully into another term. After/if they finally can agree on one, then all bets are off.
With just eight days left before the 118th Congress is sworn in, it is becoming less likely that the Victoria Nuland administration will declare total war and launch a ground invasion. Still, the CIA has been spectacularly successful with its assassination campaign.
New Year's Eve would be a good time for the elimination of Kiev.
The substack author is right, 2022 has dramatically altered the way Russia will approach its geopolitical goals in the future. Because it has to change them. Because the invasion of Ukraine is a disaster.
The czar and his court are scrambling because they have to, and any port in a storm. The new grand vision is -- over time -- create a "third pole of tripolarity" that is built from the combination of Russian/Iran/India? Wow, what a fall from grace in just one year's time.
Russia envisioned itself as a "pole" unto itself, and this past year has laid that lie (thread)bare. The weaknesses economically and in all realms of soft-power were obvious to all, but the impression of Ru military power has been exposed as an unjustified holdover from Soviet times.
Can an alignment with Ru/Iran/India be a co-equal counterweight to the US? China? The EU?
What do the geopolitical goals and national values of these three pretend "allies" have in common? What do the people of these three "allies" have in common? Maybe some Russians and Iranians can bond over "Death to America" chants? Maybe India and Iran can bond over hating the same Sunni Muslim countries? The Soviets were a military arsenal for India at a delicate time in that country's history, but how long can that nostalgia effectively masquerade as an ongoing compatibility between these dramatically different countries?
Russia could have played between the EU and China, leveraging its other Central Asian relationships as a third axis of trade, and made trillions. But their "brilliant" leadership decided to invade Ukraine. So now it's Hail Mary time.
Nord Stream 1 & 2 were nice, but nah. Let's throw all our marbles in a much longer pipeline ove ra much less stable region, to a partner (India) that will pay much less for our (now) more expensively transported resources.
Geopolitically, Russia's transition to Canada has been dramatically accelerated by the disastrous Ukraine invasion. If only the Russian elites could embrace that and provide the fantastic standard of living to their people that Canada's incredibly enviable role in the world allows it to provide Canadians. Sorry Russians, more misery awaits because the czar wants an Empire.
The author seems to downplay the profound strategic partnership of China and Russia when he exaggerates the importance of playing off so-called dependence on China with India, Iran, et al. Multipolarity implies good relations with these other countries, of which Iran is definitely on Empire's hit list. However, no alliance on the planet right now is as solid as the Sino-Russo partnership.
Point 5. Buying Time sounds right. Biden's various puppet masters are pulling him this way and that as their pollsters are looking for a strategy to get them through the next 22 months and hopefully into another term. After/if they finally can agree on one, then all bets are off.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3204542/china-us-relations-pla-holds-drills-around-taiwan-after-biden-signs-security-bill?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage
Great article!
With just eight days left before the 118th Congress is sworn in, it is becoming less likely that the Victoria Nuland administration will declare total war and launch a ground invasion. Still, the CIA has been spectacularly successful with its assassination campaign.
New Year's Eve would be a good time for the elimination of Kiev.