Few can afford to be massively tariffed by the US, let alone sanctioned, and most aren’t willing to burn their bridges with the US for ideological reasons at the expense of their immediate economic interests.
If I'm well informed, the Russians are paid in rupees for the oil they deliver to India. I wonder what they can do with that money. That's the trouble with these payments in national currencies.
Very true. I think of a couple of possibilities, but each has its shortcomings. (1) India must allow Russia to invest in Rupees. And with so many Rupees, India government must allow the incoming investment to invest in some big companies, or more likely, big infra-structure projects, with a proper profit-sharing plan. Or Russians must be allowed to set up banks and make loans in Rupee (but after a while, Rupee will flow back to these banks). Many countries have tight restrictions on huge foreign investments. (2) Russia can issue OEM orders. However, this can work against Russia's self-sufficiency goals. And as other commentators had said, India has only a limited industrial base for selection. I think India government should take this opportunity to cultivate certain domestic manufacturers. The products can be sold to other countries. For example, Russian farming depends more on large tractors. Indians are probably good at producing small manually steered farming machinery. Such machines have good markets in southeast Asia, and maybe Africa. But the best way is to buy something back to Russia. (3) Russia has to limit its sales of oil and other stuff until the India government comes up with some ideas to offer. After all, the extra Rupee is not just a problem for Russia, but also a problem for India. Things can get resolved faster this way. Indians must have some skins in the game, not just the easy life of scalpers.
I'm still not sure what "Indian financial multipolarity" actually means. If it means merely being willing to us the USD for most transactions and the Rupee or other currency for special trade that needs to bypass the dollar, then OK, sure.
Clearly the US wants to derail the Chinese economy as that is the only way to perpetuate US hegemony in the long term. And it wants to keep everyone in the dollar so as to terrorize them with sanctions, etc. Can China outwait all these aggressive US actions?
Everything, including this question of currency alternatives to the dollar, gets back to whether China's long game will eventually leave the US exhausted or whether the US short game, designed to wreck the Chinese long game strategy, will succeed and blow up what seem to be the long-term trends of US decline and Chinese ascent.
Russias choice is to roll over or escalate. Over time they will become increasingly hemmed in. Russian leadership makes the mistake of believing that time is on their side.
On the other hand, Trump can only threaten DRASTIC ACTION so many times and carry it out even fewer times before disorder outweighs any imagined benefits.
The lesson Russia is learning, if they didn't already know is that none of their "friends" can be relied upon.
Once the war in Ukraine is won, if it is won and if sanctions are not lifted, Russias only real option will be to change Rouble to a gold backed currency.
If the United States, English suzerainty and European Union refuse to release the Russian sovereign assetts illegally seized by their governments and financial institutions, then Russia will be within its rights at least in forfeiture of the shares held by European firms in joint ventures such as oil drilling companies operating in Russia, especially in view of the fact that those European shareholding firms too have seized operations in Russia in solidarity with the sanctions regime. Accordingly, Russia can sound Asian Countries wishing to make a headstart into Russian markets, not to fall into the trap of those of European partners in Russian joint ventures which are trying to sell off their stake at a hefty price to unsuspecting Asuatic buyers. Having effectively forfeited their shares in Russian joint ventures to the Russian government, those European firms engaged in non-corporative tug of war with the Russian government are hardly in a legal position to sell their shares to any unsuspecting Asiatic buyer. Those Asiatic wannabe entrants into the Russian market should buy shares aftesh from the Russian government or fresh IPO's instead of falling for the bait of European firms which have been waging collective economic war against Russia.
The concept of BRICS is good but suffered too much from the so-called BRICS promoters. Actually these are not the national governments or leaders, but various intellectuals and commentators. Actions for BRICS's future have to be taken in the most low-profile ways. Instead of de-dollarization or remove USD hegemony, at least the governments of BRICS should only talk about bilateral barter-trades for the sake of smoothing the trade flows. Don't even talk about trade blocks. Perhaps because Russia hosted the past BRICS meeting in Kazan, even Mr. Putin was a little bit too flamboyant on this matter when it has to be more low-keys. Effectively, BRICS has now hit the same road blocks as China's BRI. Either we keep BRICS on the slow burner, or something new has to be started. This time, no talking, only doing.
Excellent analysis by Mr Andrew Korybko. One of the best expositions on this subject.
If I'm well informed, the Russians are paid in rupees for the oil they deliver to India. I wonder what they can do with that money. That's the trouble with these payments in national currencies.
Very true. I think of a couple of possibilities, but each has its shortcomings. (1) India must allow Russia to invest in Rupees. And with so many Rupees, India government must allow the incoming investment to invest in some big companies, or more likely, big infra-structure projects, with a proper profit-sharing plan. Or Russians must be allowed to set up banks and make loans in Rupee (but after a while, Rupee will flow back to these banks). Many countries have tight restrictions on huge foreign investments. (2) Russia can issue OEM orders. However, this can work against Russia's self-sufficiency goals. And as other commentators had said, India has only a limited industrial base for selection. I think India government should take this opportunity to cultivate certain domestic manufacturers. The products can be sold to other countries. For example, Russian farming depends more on large tractors. Indians are probably good at producing small manually steered farming machinery. Such machines have good markets in southeast Asia, and maybe Africa. But the best way is to buy something back to Russia. (3) Russia has to limit its sales of oil and other stuff until the India government comes up with some ideas to offer. After all, the extra Rupee is not just a problem for Russia, but also a problem for India. Things can get resolved faster this way. Indians must have some skins in the game, not just the easy life of scalpers.
Buy lots of curry!
I'm still not sure what "Indian financial multipolarity" actually means. If it means merely being willing to us the USD for most transactions and the Rupee or other currency for special trade that needs to bypass the dollar, then OK, sure.
Clearly the US wants to derail the Chinese economy as that is the only way to perpetuate US hegemony in the long term. And it wants to keep everyone in the dollar so as to terrorize them with sanctions, etc. Can China outwait all these aggressive US actions?
Everything, including this question of currency alternatives to the dollar, gets back to whether China's long game will eventually leave the US exhausted or whether the US short game, designed to wreck the Chinese long game strategy, will succeed and blow up what seem to be the long-term trends of US decline and Chinese ascent.
Russias choice is to roll over or escalate. Over time they will become increasingly hemmed in. Russian leadership makes the mistake of believing that time is on their side.
On the other hand, Trump can only threaten DRASTIC ACTION so many times and carry it out even fewer times before disorder outweighs any imagined benefits.
The lesson Russia is learning, if they didn't already know is that none of their "friends" can be relied upon.
Once the war in Ukraine is won, if it is won and if sanctions are not lifted, Russias only real option will be to change Rouble to a gold backed currency.
If the United States, English suzerainty and European Union refuse to release the Russian sovereign assetts illegally seized by their governments and financial institutions, then Russia will be within its rights at least in forfeiture of the shares held by European firms in joint ventures such as oil drilling companies operating in Russia, especially in view of the fact that those European shareholding firms too have seized operations in Russia in solidarity with the sanctions regime. Accordingly, Russia can sound Asian Countries wishing to make a headstart into Russian markets, not to fall into the trap of those of European partners in Russian joint ventures which are trying to sell off their stake at a hefty price to unsuspecting Asuatic buyers. Having effectively forfeited their shares in Russian joint ventures to the Russian government, those European firms engaged in non-corporative tug of war with the Russian government are hardly in a legal position to sell their shares to any unsuspecting Asiatic buyer. Those Asiatic wannabe entrants into the Russian market should buy shares aftesh from the Russian government or fresh IPO's instead of falling for the bait of European firms which have been waging collective economic war against Russia.
Balance the US budget. END the "iron" bank.
The concept of BRICS is good but suffered too much from the so-called BRICS promoters. Actually these are not the national governments or leaders, but various intellectuals and commentators. Actions for BRICS's future have to be taken in the most low-profile ways. Instead of de-dollarization or remove USD hegemony, at least the governments of BRICS should only talk about bilateral barter-trades for the sake of smoothing the trade flows. Don't even talk about trade blocks. Perhaps because Russia hosted the past BRICS meeting in Kazan, even Mr. Putin was a little bit too flamboyant on this matter when it has to be more low-keys. Effectively, BRICS has now hit the same road blocks as China's BRI. Either we keep BRICS on the slow burner, or something new has to be started. This time, no talking, only doing.
"Everything will continue moving more or less in the same direction, but at a gradual pace..."
Oh, for a big, black hypersonic swan!
It is easy to agree that the world perfectly deserves being ruled by its current rulers, deceivers, and enforcers.