The Latest Indo-Russo Military Pact Confirms The Strength Of Their Strategic Partnership

In practice, their signing of the long-negotiated Reciprocal Exchange Of Logistics (RELOS) agreement will likely presage more Russian naval drills in India’s namesake ocean, which will continue the trend of diversifying Russia’s “Pivot to Asia” away from its former Sino-centricity.

Modi’s summit with Trump last Friday was followed by speculative reports about the future of Indo-Russo ties, which some observers believe might be weakened by the strengthening of Indo-US ones. These concerns aren’t new but have been expressed across the past three years since the start of Russia’s special operation and even in some cases preceded it. For as compelling as they might seem to some, there’s no longer any reason to lend them credence after the latest Indo-Russo military pact.

They finally signed their long-negotiated Reciprocal Exchange Of Logistics (RELOS) agreement on Tuesday that’ll allow each to use the other’s ports more easily during joint exercises. In practice, this will likely presage more Russian naval drills in India’s namesake ocean, which will continue the trend of diversifying Russia’s “Pivot to Asia” away from its former Sino-centricity as part of its policy to preemptively avert potentially disproportionate dependence on the People’s Republic. Here are six background briefings:

* 27 January 2024: “Why’s Russia Letting India Export Jointly Produced Supersonic Missiles To The Philippines?”

* 23 June 2024: “Russia’s Military Logistics Pact With India Complements Its Newly Recalibrated Asian Strategy”

* 16 November 2024: “Korybko To Sputnik India: Russia & India Jointly Stabilize The New Cold War’s Asian Front”

* 10 December 2024: “Russian-Indian Defense Ties Are Evolving With The Times”

* 20 January 2025: “Trump Should Let Indonesia Purchase Jointly Russian-Indian Produced BrahMos Missiles”

* 18 February 2025: “The Latest Modi-Trump Summit Showcased India’s Multi-Alignment Strategy”

The gist is that “military diplomacy” between Russia and India, which manifests itself in this case through arms deals and joint drills, plays a pivotal role in maintaining the strength of their strategic partnership. They’ve proven their reliability to one another over the decades and therefore feel more comfortable continuing to cooperate with each other in this sensitive sphere than with any other country. The latest development on this front comes at a crucial moment as Russia and the US finally begin talks on Ukraine:

* 13 February 2025: “Here’s What Comes Next After Putin & Trump Just Agreed To Start Peace Talks”

* 14 February 2025: “Why Might Russia Repair Its Ties With The West & How Could This Reshape Its Foreign Policy?”

* 15 February 2025: “Vance’s Munich Speech Vindicated Putin’s Summer 2022 Prediction About Political Change In Europe”

The first round of their talks ended with them agreeing to form working groups to hash out the finer details of a peace treaty, initiating a diplomatic reset by restoring one another’s full embassy operations and creating a mechanism for resolving bilateral disputes, and discussing a future economic partnership. If everything remains on track, then Putin and Trump might even agree to what can be described as a “New Détente” between their nations, which could have serious implications for China.

The most immediate and realistic among them concerns this proposal here from early January for Russia to tacitly agree with the US to not expand energy cooperation with China in favor of prioritizing exports to and investment from the West, India, and Japan instead. Head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and member of the Russian delegation in Riyadh Kirill Dmitriev confirmed after their talks that the two sides discussed joint Arctic energy projects exactly as the preceding hyperlinked analysis suggested.

What all this has to do with India is that Russia and the US have shared interests in having it serve as a partial counterweight to China, the first as a means of gently averting potentially disproportionate dependence on it and the second as a means of containing it in Mainland Asia. This convergence of interests coupled with India’s masterful multi-alignment between competing power centers could see Russia and the US more responsibly manage their competition for India’s arms and energy markets.

Neither wants to push India into the other’s arms by aggressively pressuring it into zero-sum dilemmas that could disrupt the balance of power that they’re working to create in Mainland Asia, each in pursuit of their own interests as explained, and all three would benefit through trilateral cooperation. This could take the form of Indian investment in joint Russian-US energy projects in the Arctic, and in the event that the Russian-US “New Détente” bears fruit, then perhaps through trilateral naval drills there too.

On that tangent, esteemed Russian expert on India Alexey Kupriyanov told RT that their country might employ RELOS to facilitate joint drills with India in the Arctic. In his words, “It is possible that the provisions of this agreement will apply in the case of joint exercises in Arctic territories and waters of the Arctic Ocean. From the perspective of Indian military elites and the expert community, this is important because Delhi is concerned about increased Chinese activity in polar regions.”

Russia’s partnership with India in the Arctic aligns with America’s grand strategic goal of containing China’s presence there so it wouldn’t mind those two carrying out regular drills in those waters. As was written above, if the “New Détente” that’s being negotiated actually comes to pass, then this could set the basis for trilateral naval drills there one day. They wouldn’t be aimed against anyone but predicated on building trust and goodwill as those three begin to rely more on the Arctic for their foreign trade.

Returning to RELOS, it can therefore be seen as a milestone not only in Indo-Russo relations, but perhaps even in the global systemic transition if it eventually pairs with the “New Détente” that Russia and the US working towards and results in trilateral naval drills in the Arctic Ocean. Even if that best-case scenario doesn’t unfold, RELOS still confirms the strength of the Indo-Russo Strategic Partnership, which discredits speculative reports about the future of their ties after the latest Modi-Trump Summit.