Not disagreeing with you, but I'd say more generally that Putin has stated the full Russian position many times. I think that any "negotiating" position that fails to take him seriously will likely not result in anything like peace, and most of the people talking about negotiation have no desire that it should result in anything like peace. What they want is a continual ratcheting up of military spending and, simultaneously, a continual erosion and destruction of individual liberties. This war has revealed what a farce Western claims to democracy are.
Agreed but to add my 2 cents worth ,Russian economy seems to be doing well and I can't say the same for the West .EU is running on fumes ,economically and the US just keeps printing what it wants .This totally unsound IMO so meeting the wall is not too distant .And personally I don't think Trump will be able to change the tide very quickly if he does at all . My 2 cents from Canada wanting to keep whatever sovereignty we might have .Cheers
The biggest question in my mind is whether there's going to be any difference between Trump and Biden at all. I'm not confident, but maybe Trump is just a tiny bit less warmongering. And of course he isn't a complete vegetable, if that matters. I laughed about his comments about Greenland and Canada, but I wouldn't have if I were Canadian. Still, I don't think anything's going to come of that.
The real goal of SMO is to eliminate the oligarchy rats in Ukraine who threaten Russian security. Namely, these rats came from Dnipro Mafia group from Soviet era
Sounds like a good idea.There is some danger Ukraine with encouragement of the West would just break armistice at convenient time, as I am not sure about motivation of non Western peacekeepers-Kenians and such also "kept peace" in Serbian Krajina territory in 1995 before Croatian atttac. Did not end well.
1. Especially taking into account that the Foreign Ministry knows that it won't get all it is asking for, this is as close as one can get to an admission of defeat. Russia probably could have gotten more out of Ukraine as far as political concessions go at the start of the war.
2. As you alluded, this will never be enforced,.certainly not by the West.
3. The West will smell blood, and even these meager concessions will be unacceptable.
The proposal seems nice but is unworkable. (1) Which country will serve as the non-NATO security force? China may be willing to, but India/Brazil/SA are unlikely or incapable of such tasks. Turkey may be willing if a lot of money is offered, but I don't think Russia likes the idea of a cat sitting on the fence to grow too far. NATO would not agree to let Vietnam, NK, or Belarus to serve as the peace keeping force. Central Asia countries do not have the manpower or political courage to do either. (2) The West can still send arms into the remaining part of Ukraine and they will be longer range strike weapons and there is no guarantee that the government in Kiev would heed the welfare of its people or its own sovereign. (3) This trans-Dnieper area as a buffer zone must include both banks of the river and wide enough if the agreement eventually comes to that point. Ukraine should not have any military on the east bank of the Dnieper, only police and civilian officials. But the needed expense is too high.
IMHO the most likely settlement: Russia pushes to the east bank of Dnieper and makes it the defense frontier, plus the coastal area to Transnistria and take back Krivoy Rog and Odessa. I understand the West will not agree with that either. That is why the settlement has to be on the battlefield and continue until the last Banderalist. In terms of costs to Russia in manpower, casualty, expenses, and long-term maintenance cost, this is a better deal for the long term.
None of this is possible. Westerners are incapable of hearing what the Russian Federation is saying. One Bloomberg article, one assertion of source credibility and what? A wholly needy Western solution arrives - from the Russians?
Just read your two latest. Please continue the great writing.
Russian doctrine (Clausewitz) is negotiate and continue the combat when you are winning. It would be pointless to freeze, cease-fire, pause or stop for anything less than an imposed peace. NATO has repeatedly proven it can not hold to agreements. No need to relearn that difficult lesson.
A just peace is there is no Ukraine nation. That will settle a few issues I think.
We have a precedent Kosovo. That is a great example of NATO demarcation zone failure then there’s Iblib Syria another example on how the west can not be trusted, It’s all the way to the Polish border or the SMO is a failure, Western Ukraine must be cleansed of Nazis this can be done by deportation to the EU or simply make western Ukraine unliveable as the western part has zero economic potential this could be the buffer zone heavily militarised by Russia
Stalin said 50 years peace with the former east Germany and Warsaw Pact countries well that lasted around 70 years. Ukraine must be annexed
This suggestion assumes that the West has leverage. It has none. It must accept unconditional surrender to end the war. Because that is impossible, they will keep the war going, not to win, but to buy time hoping Russia implodes or Putin is overthrown. The complete destruction of Ukraine is inconsequential. The Prize is Russia and that makes any sacrifice, including nuclear war, worth it. Trump hates this idea now, but he will come around. He already understands that the West has lost, but because he is a megalomaniac narcissistic who only wins, he won’t bite the bullet and take the “L.”
An attempt to soft-soap the "alt media community" and convince everyone that a "negotiated peace" that basically re-establishes the big-picture status quo ante--is some sort of victory for Russia.
You can see Russian media now trying to prepare the Russian public for the same thing. Here is a piece in Russian Military Review--"A little bit about the future. Victory and negotiations, how it can be."
It makes a similar sales pitch on behalf of whatever impending Putin-Trump deal seems to be in the works.
One of the commenters on the story, "Belisarius," makes these remarks:
>>"The only significant thing in the [Russian Military Review] article, as in many other similar ones published in anticipation of the coming of the Master and Savior, the holy father Trump, is the preparation of the population for negotiations.
So, the electorate has been brainwashed for 3 years--capitulations, Nazis and victories--and now, negotiations? The people will not understand why our soldiers died. So we are forced to make the case that negotiations are our victory. We will talk with America and divide Ukraine, and the "Nazis" will somehow disappear on their own.
However, the author is pushing on an open door here - the majority of the Russian population does not need to be cajoled into accepting negotiations. The majority is so tired of this hell that they will be relieved to see the end of the match with any score on the scoreboard. If only this nonsense would end.
The true nature of problem is something else altogether:
1) No one is offering us any peace treaties and no one is going to recognize the legality of any territories [the oblasts taken by the Russians] as legitimately part of the Russian Federation. Only a ceasefire agreement is being offered and only by Trump and his people (who really want to end this conflict, although for them it is a secondary problem)
2) Trump is not at all omnipotent, and the leadership of Maidan Ukraine does not obey him. They are not his clients. It is not at all a foregone conclusion that he will be able to persuade the parties even to cease fire."
Highly axiomatic. Every1 bending the knees & kissin' my butt is "...the most realistic means for keeping the peace after..." I ascend to Master of the Universe.
What do Ukrainians want? Shouldn't be irrelevant the desires of the people for which the land belongs. Both Russia and the United states underestimated Ukrainian resistance to the full scale Invasion with disastrous consequences. Strange to write about a piece negotiation without taking into account the agency of the country that was attacked.
Sounds like a likely place for the boundary .What I always thought would be a logical final remedy .Though Russia will have other thought on the matter as it has the upper hand on the final solution .The far right in the West must be pacified if any proper solution is to be found IMHO.
First and foremost Trump must immediately meet with Putin in order to establish dialogue at the highest level. From there Zelinsky must be given Ukrainian authority to establish a second tier level of Ukrainian bureaucrats tasked with establishing detente with appropriate Russian officials. Trump must assure Putin that given return of pre February 2022 Ukrainian territory, (but not including the ethnic Russian speaking regions of the Donbas that voted for separation), NATO nations and particularly the USA will withdraw all military support from Ukrainian territory and will cease agitation for inclusion of Ukraine into NATO membership. Putin must accept that thus Ukraine will become a de-militarised, non-aligned neutral nation and thus with a UN sponsored 5 year surveillance of the pre February 2022 LOC an outbreak of peace could occur. Principal to this agreement will be Trump's Executive Order to withdraw and prevent any future overt or clandestine involvement by all US military and intelligence agencies, direct or contracted from interfering in the sovereignty of Ukraine. Ukraine's future was never an existential threat to USA.
Strangely the Easter bunny didn't arrive last year but then I was away from home then. As to the pixies - I haven't seen them since the neighbour sprayed glyphosate on the vines on my back fence. Who knows - maybe after January 20th?
Well let's hope when the pixies return so will commence the abovementioned as per your initial comment though pig's and flying come to mind.
Putin does not recognise Z and his banderites so detente is out, though we can hope Trumps upmanship does not preclude a positive settlement if allowed by the embedded neocons inside and outside of his chosen ones.
Throw in an end to all Russian sanctions, the recognition that ALL sales of Ukraine assets to foreign entities such as Soros Jr, Blackrock, Monsanto are moot and you might see some interest on Russia's part.
Oh, and Russia partners in the rebuilding of Ukraine, Blackrock cannot participate in any role whatsoever, and Sevastopol comes under Russian ownership.
Ya, U must be on 'shrooms. Are not 5 "regions" already in the RF via referendum and Duma vote? Would it not be "unconstitutional" for RU to give them up? That's just a a bare minimum position, it will surely be more.
The 5 regions are Russian controlled territory now - that is a fact that won't change. The Ukrainians need to concede that as part of their negotiations to conclude this barbaric war.
Yes, but 3 of the 5 are much more than simply "Russian controlled territory now" de jure, that is, by Russian constitutional law. An equivalent statement is California is USA "controlled territory now" that Mexico &/or Spain must concede to avoid a barbaric war, by my understanding. Both are obvious.
Sounds like CIA propaganda designed to inflame anti-Putin sentiment in Russia.
How many times have Putin/Lavrov said De-Nazification & Demilitarization?
Demilitarization is almost complete.
Not disagreeing with you, but I'd say more generally that Putin has stated the full Russian position many times. I think that any "negotiating" position that fails to take him seriously will likely not result in anything like peace, and most of the people talking about negotiation have no desire that it should result in anything like peace. What they want is a continual ratcheting up of military spending and, simultaneously, a continual erosion and destruction of individual liberties. This war has revealed what a farce Western claims to democracy are.
Agreed but to add my 2 cents worth ,Russian economy seems to be doing well and I can't say the same for the West .EU is running on fumes ,economically and the US just keeps printing what it wants .This totally unsound IMO so meeting the wall is not too distant .And personally I don't think Trump will be able to change the tide very quickly if he does at all . My 2 cents from Canada wanting to keep whatever sovereignty we might have .Cheers
The biggest question in my mind is whether there's going to be any difference between Trump and Biden at all. I'm not confident, but maybe Trump is just a tiny bit less warmongering. And of course he isn't a complete vegetable, if that matters. I laughed about his comments about Greenland and Canada, but I wouldn't have if I were Canadian. Still, I don't think anything's going to come of that.
The real goal of SMO is to eliminate the oligarchy rats in Ukraine who threaten Russian security. Namely, these rats came from Dnipro Mafia group from Soviet era
Sounds like a good idea.There is some danger Ukraine with encouragement of the West would just break armistice at convenient time, as I am not sure about motivation of non Western peacekeepers-Kenians and such also "kept peace" in Serbian Krajina territory in 1995 before Croatian atttac. Did not end well.
If and to the extent accurate:
1. Especially taking into account that the Foreign Ministry knows that it won't get all it is asking for, this is as close as one can get to an admission of defeat. Russia probably could have gotten more out of Ukraine as far as political concessions go at the start of the war.
2. As you alluded, this will never be enforced,.certainly not by the West.
3. The West will smell blood, and even these meager concessions will be unacceptable.
The proposal seems nice but is unworkable. (1) Which country will serve as the non-NATO security force? China may be willing to, but India/Brazil/SA are unlikely or incapable of such tasks. Turkey may be willing if a lot of money is offered, but I don't think Russia likes the idea of a cat sitting on the fence to grow too far. NATO would not agree to let Vietnam, NK, or Belarus to serve as the peace keeping force. Central Asia countries do not have the manpower or political courage to do either. (2) The West can still send arms into the remaining part of Ukraine and they will be longer range strike weapons and there is no guarantee that the government in Kiev would heed the welfare of its people or its own sovereign. (3) This trans-Dnieper area as a buffer zone must include both banks of the river and wide enough if the agreement eventually comes to that point. Ukraine should not have any military on the east bank of the Dnieper, only police and civilian officials. But the needed expense is too high.
IMHO the most likely settlement: Russia pushes to the east bank of Dnieper and makes it the defense frontier, plus the coastal area to Transnistria and take back Krivoy Rog and Odessa. I understand the West will not agree with that either. That is why the settlement has to be on the battlefield and continue until the last Banderalist. In terms of costs to Russia in manpower, casualty, expenses, and long-term maintenance cost, this is a better deal for the long term.
None of this is possible. Westerners are incapable of hearing what the Russian Federation is saying. One Bloomberg article, one assertion of source credibility and what? A wholly needy Western solution arrives - from the Russians?
Just read your two latest. Please continue the great writing.
Russian doctrine (Clausewitz) is negotiate and continue the combat when you are winning. It would be pointless to freeze, cease-fire, pause or stop for anything less than an imposed peace. NATO has repeatedly proven it can not hold to agreements. No need to relearn that difficult lesson.
A just peace is there is no Ukraine nation. That will settle a few issues I think.
Peacekeepers only freeze a conflict not solve it. Are the Russian proposals/demands of December 2021 also frozen?
We have a precedent Kosovo. That is a great example of NATO demarcation zone failure then there’s Iblib Syria another example on how the west can not be trusted, It’s all the way to the Polish border or the SMO is a failure, Western Ukraine must be cleansed of Nazis this can be done by deportation to the EU or simply make western Ukraine unliveable as the western part has zero economic potential this could be the buffer zone heavily militarised by Russia
Stalin said 50 years peace with the former east Germany and Warsaw Pact countries well that lasted around 70 years. Ukraine must be annexed
lol no. Russia has already won the war. All of Novorossiya will become part of the Russian Federation.
This suggestion assumes that the West has leverage. It has none. It must accept unconditional surrender to end the war. Because that is impossible, they will keep the war going, not to win, but to buy time hoping Russia implodes or Putin is overthrown. The complete destruction of Ukraine is inconsequential. The Prize is Russia and that makes any sacrifice, including nuclear war, worth it. Trump hates this idea now, but he will come around. He already understands that the West has lost, but because he is a megalomaniac narcissistic who only wins, he won’t bite the bullet and take the “L.”
He can give the "L" to Team crazy ol' Biden & the Dems.
An attempt to soft-soap the "alt media community" and convince everyone that a "negotiated peace" that basically re-establishes the big-picture status quo ante--is some sort of victory for Russia.
You can see Russian media now trying to prepare the Russian public for the same thing. Here is a piece in Russian Military Review--"A little bit about the future. Victory and negotiations, how it can be."
It makes a similar sales pitch on behalf of whatever impending Putin-Trump deal seems to be in the works.
https://en.topwar.ru/257569-nemnogo-o-buduschem-pobeda-i-peregovory-kak-jeto-mozhet-byt.html
One of the commenters on the story, "Belisarius," makes these remarks:
>>"The only significant thing in the [Russian Military Review] article, as in many other similar ones published in anticipation of the coming of the Master and Savior, the holy father Trump, is the preparation of the population for negotiations.
So, the electorate has been brainwashed for 3 years--capitulations, Nazis and victories--and now, negotiations? The people will not understand why our soldiers died. So we are forced to make the case that negotiations are our victory. We will talk with America and divide Ukraine, and the "Nazis" will somehow disappear on their own.
However, the author is pushing on an open door here - the majority of the Russian population does not need to be cajoled into accepting negotiations. The majority is so tired of this hell that they will be relieved to see the end of the match with any score on the scoreboard. If only this nonsense would end.
The true nature of problem is something else altogether:
1) No one is offering us any peace treaties and no one is going to recognize the legality of any territories [the oblasts taken by the Russians] as legitimately part of the Russian Federation. Only a ceasefire agreement is being offered and only by Trump and his people (who really want to end this conflict, although for them it is a secondary problem)
2) Trump is not at all omnipotent, and the leadership of Maidan Ukraine does not obey him. They are not his clients. It is not at all a foregone conclusion that he will be able to persuade the parties even to cease fire."
""" manned by Russia’s closest non-Western partners """
Who ? Who is stupid enough to put feet on the ground ?
and at what monetary expense ?
Who is going to pay for it ?
You think China wants to put a military force in Ukraine ?
or were you considering India ?
Remember the basic formula
Ukraine provides the bodies EU provides the body bags
Thats That.
.
Highly axiomatic. Every1 bending the knees & kissin' my butt is "...the most realistic means for keeping the peace after..." I ascend to Master of the Universe.
What do Ukrainians want? Shouldn't be irrelevant the desires of the people for which the land belongs. Both Russia and the United states underestimated Ukrainian resistance to the full scale Invasion with disastrous consequences. Strange to write about a piece negotiation without taking into account the agency of the country that was attacked.
Do you recognize the referendums that preceded the ascension of the regions to RU Federation ?
Sounds like a likely place for the boundary .What I always thought would be a logical final remedy .Though Russia will have other thought on the matter as it has the upper hand on the final solution .The far right in the West must be pacified if any proper solution is to be found IMHO.
Sounds like a likely place for the boundary if you believe in Atlanticist fairy-tales.
First and foremost Trump must immediately meet with Putin in order to establish dialogue at the highest level. From there Zelinsky must be given Ukrainian authority to establish a second tier level of Ukrainian bureaucrats tasked with establishing detente with appropriate Russian officials. Trump must assure Putin that given return of pre February 2022 Ukrainian territory, (but not including the ethnic Russian speaking regions of the Donbas that voted for separation), NATO nations and particularly the USA will withdraw all military support from Ukrainian territory and will cease agitation for inclusion of Ukraine into NATO membership. Putin must accept that thus Ukraine will become a de-militarised, non-aligned neutral nation and thus with a UN sponsored 5 year surveillance of the pre February 2022 LOC an outbreak of peace could occur. Principal to this agreement will be Trump's Executive Order to withdraw and prevent any future overt or clandestine involvement by all US military and intelligence agencies, direct or contracted from interfering in the sovereignty of Ukraine. Ukraine's future was never an existential threat to USA.
Do you believe in the Easter bunny and pixies at the bottom of the garden, Mediocrates?
Strangely the Easter bunny didn't arrive last year but then I was away from home then. As to the pixies - I haven't seen them since the neighbour sprayed glyphosate on the vines on my back fence. Who knows - maybe after January 20th?
Actually I just found out that my neighbour is concerned about my magic mushroom crop so he sprayed it!
Well let's hope when the pixies return so will commence the abovementioned as per your initial comment though pig's and flying come to mind.
Putin does not recognise Z and his banderites so detente is out, though we can hope Trumps upmanship does not preclude a positive settlement if allowed by the embedded neocons inside and outside of his chosen ones.
Too many variables to even consider.
Seems his upmanship has already invaded the process before it's even began Mediocrites.
https://archive.md/QoLDQ
Putin will just keepem rollen on.
Throw in an end to all Russian sanctions, the recognition that ALL sales of Ukraine assets to foreign entities such as Soros Jr, Blackrock, Monsanto are moot and you might see some interest on Russia's part.
Oh, and Russia partners in the rebuilding of Ukraine, Blackrock cannot participate in any role whatsoever, and Sevastopol comes under Russian ownership.
Ya, U must be on 'shrooms. Are not 5 "regions" already in the RF via referendum and Duma vote? Would it not be "unconstitutional" for RU to give them up? That's just a a bare minimum position, it will surely be more.
The 5 regions are Russian controlled territory now - that is a fact that won't change. The Ukrainians need to concede that as part of their negotiations to conclude this barbaric war.
Yes, but 3 of the 5 are much more than simply "Russian controlled territory now" de jure, that is, by Russian constitutional law. An equivalent statement is California is USA "controlled territory now" that Mexico &/or Spain must concede to avoid a barbaric war, by my understanding. Both are obvious.
As such, UKR has the legal designation of invaders of RU Federation. This does not simply refer to the Kursk area.