It remains unclear what Putin will ultimately do, but whichever of these two choices he makes will determine the trajectory of this conflict from now on, either more escalation or a possible compromise.
Russia's best bet would be to continue to destroy Nazi-led AFU forces until they surrender.
There is no appeasing the US and its four main proxy amigos. (Ukraine, Germany, France, and the UK)
Press forward, Russia, and attack, attack, attack. Keep pushing AFU forces back relentlessly to capitulation. The harder Ukraine resists with strategically fruitless plans the harder Russia tightens the noose leading to the ultimate defeat of Ukraine and the departure of the Zelensky regime.
This is a historic moment for Russia. Either Russia boldly captures Ukraine now while it can or they'll always face a threat on its Western Front for having caved into some kind of temporary compromise.
Whatever missiles Ukraine gets won't change AFU and Zelensky's terminal fate if only Russia has the fortitude to commit and do what it takes to completely neutralize NATO on its Western front by forcing Ukraine's surrender.
"The West will only continue to attack, as long as Russia fears escalation". Exactly. The next year will be telling and I sense that Putin will come up short. How can Russia be distinct (BRICS) when, at the same time, it is part of the G20 with similar policies as Agenda 2030? East and West look more alike in policy than distinct from one another like democrats and republicans. (wings of the same bird) lol
The problem is that Russia does not seek to destroy The West. Rather, they want to join it, and appear to continually tell themselves that this is a lover's quarrel that soon will be over and all will be patched up.
The West, by contrast, clearly seeks nothing less than the destruction of Russia, and is willing to gamble with life on earth to get what it wants.
Putin is NOT the only politician in Russia. Everyone there, with the exception of weirdos and fruitcakes — losers, is on the same side. One of my favourite mantras is, 'The greatest difference between Russia and the West is that they have good politicians in Russia.' True, Putin took fantastic advantage of the difficult circumstances he had to deal with. He is not, however, alone.
In fact, before all this NATO nonsense, i.e. pre-2022, for many years and increasingly his greatest challenge had been finding some way to be replaced. I believe he is unique in this respect: as far as I'm aware, great men, who successfully wield great power, haven't paid enough attention to what is to come after them. Putin has addressed this question. True, we don't yet know how well he manages to resolve it but his attempts and the focus of his attention, particularly before the West distracted him, have been as laudable as I believe they are rare.
I think that's a big part of the problem among those who understand the situation in the West: jealousy. Like boys, who poke sticks through the wheels of other boys with nicer bikes, politicians in the West hate Putin's success.
Well said, McD. Speaking of jealousy, Do you think I'm jealous here in Canada with Trudeau as the leader, who I can't look at or listen to, looking at Putin in Russia thinking I'm on the wrong side of the world, man? Oh well, I'll have to settle for both Trudeau and Zelensky to be gone next year. lol
Well, I don't know your position or circumstances. If you're a relatively high-level politician relying on popular vote to feed and finance you, then yes, I can imagine why you might be jealous; and if you were in Trudeau's position — with notoriously low credibility, probably as low as your mortgage and other obligations are high — I should think you must be absolutely boiling green with furious envy at Putin's success. The irony is, of course, all Western politicians would have to do to earn reputations and respect comparable to how 70-80% of the Russians' electorate relate to Putin, would be to try to make the electorate's life better as hard as they try to make their own lives better. And the GRAND IRONY is that they (politicians in the West) don't actually make their lives any better by making themselves so rich, which is precisely why they're so bloody unhappy and have no idea how to make their electorate any happier.
I don't know what Trudeau can expect in Canada, not being au fait with the details of electoral politics there (other than to expect it's pretty much the same as in any 5-eyes country). I don't think you would need to hold your breath for very long to see the end of Zelensky, though. He could be disappeared, one way or another, any day.
"...looking at Putin in Russia thinking I'm on the wrong side of the world, man?"
You know, another thing I'd meant to touch upon (but got distracted) is the new laws on immimgration in Russia now. They understand what's happening in the West and would like to make everyone's lives better by offering a better life to people suffering here. If you're capable of making a positive contribution to their society and willing to work to do so, you may well be able to find a better place for yourself there now.
As if the USA and NATO have not been directly involved in this conflict all along! Proxy war my ass! The Zionist plan for Russia is a "strategic defeat." I can't make that any clearer except to say Russia's very existence as a nation is what this is all about. I have no idea what Russia will do besides what it has been doing and did last night with the most devastating attack on Ukraine's power grid all over the country. Ukraine, NATO and the USA are all but declared DOA. Add to that the massive casualties Ukraine is suffering daily all along the front and there just isn't much left. End results: America loses, NATO crumbles, the EU falls apart, and what is left of Ukraine is a rump state whose future depends on Russia and China.
I agree monsieur Tremblay. You should understand that this is much more complex and deep than a “Zionist plan” though. Follow the works of @Matthew Ehret here on Substack. The Illuminati are still lurking in the shadows…
The problem is we have no clue what Russia is going to settle for in Ukraine. We'll know the score when the cards have been dropped. We all know the US and NATO are involved in Ukraine but they haven't made it official yet.
Extremely counterproductive move by the declining hegemonic powers. Militarily of no significance. The Russian military is unstoppable, a couple of Western missiles make no difference. BUT, any inhibitions Russia had re arming Iran, Ansarallah, Syria, Iraq, etc., are now history. Russia will respond thoughtfully and asymmetrically, not with brute force. Brute force is the language of the West, not Russia. Israel is currently the best case study of Western 'wisdom'.
"What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander".
There are other fronts than Ukraine, and the response may be like-for-like.. NATO/US has vulnerabilities in the MENA zone, and there are forces there who would gladly accept upgraded strike capabilities.
"...no reason to expect him to jump out of character and significantly escalate..."
None whatsoever: it's been patently clear how this would all end from the moment the Americans lost their 'Great (Counter-)Offensive' in June last year. (Actually, it was pretty clear long before that, even before the coup ('Revolution of Dignity') in 2014.) There are absolutely no logical grounds for Russia ('Putin', if you prefer) to do anything whatsoever to change that.
"... serious opportunity costs for Russia."
What, you wanna bargain ALREADY?!
"...it would have been better..."
Everybody's an armchair Kennedy-Khrushyov!
"...more escalation or a possible compromise."
Or just business as (the new) normal: a slow, steady grind to unconditional surrender (Победа!).
Is not this part of USA waning hegemony? There's all this argument about whether Trump will go for one side or the other, yet how would it make any kind of sense to side with Ukraine? Trump is a dealer and he will side always with winners. He has a hard row to hoe with politics in the USA which always depends on an uninformed public.
Good post thoughtful sir. I myself am predicting a step up in aggressiveness on the Ukrainian front, with a required expansion of "buffer zones" to account for the range of weapons provided. Secondly, I'm predicting increased funding and military assistance to third parities, other "proxies" if you will, that are hostile to the United States and NATO. This would be a step-by-step match for the actions that have been taken, without any kind of emotional or reckless response. I'm with you in thinking that Mr. Putin does *not* want escalation into WW3. No sane person does.
Of course, my thinking may be wishful. Clearly it is. I'm wishing, hoping, and praying for restraint until things can be corrected. The alternative is, well, unthinkable.
According to some, Russia still has the escalation dominance. I don’t know what that will be, but given how rational and patient Russian behaviour has been, nukes are out of question.
There is no winning a war between nuclear armed powers. There is only apocalypse. The Russians should understand that there is a large contingent of the West which, while it does not like Putin or the Russian government, is strongly opposed to the war and neoconservative aggression since the fall of the USSR.
Xenophobia and media narratives cannot last forever. In the end the truth will out. We need to keep the temperature down until then, or the only alternative is global thermonuclear war.
On the Russian side I think the best way to effect this is through outreach. The Tucker Carlson interview was a brilliant idea. Do more things like that. Ignore the leaders and media, discuss with the people instead.
On the Western side the best way to effect this is through the wholesale destruction of the mainstream media, the whore of the neocons. Thankfully this is already well underway. Nobody trusts them anymore. The neocon narrative around the war is crumbling. Nobody believes the nightly news anymore: they are doing their own research - in depth and without apology.
We have been at the brink before and have come back from it. We can do it again.
The American government seems to expend an awfully great amount of money and time forming and shaping the opinions of their citizens for that to be true.
President Putin said military bases of U$a-NATO will become targets. Probably has set up air defense capabilities in advance of this. Will continue to advance with SMO. This cannot come as surprise to Russian leaders. No need for rash behavior. Simply carry on.
It is obvious Putin desires a negotiated peace. He is not going to escalate in a fashion which the outgoing administration through this provocation desires. He will wait until the Trump administration is in office, especially since Trump has consistently spoken about ending this war. If Trump instead continues with the current warmongering, there is a real danger of escalation. Putin committed a strategic error when he did not build up an overwhelming conventional force necessary to win through conventional means. This was interpreted as a weakness which invited a constant escalation from the Western Empire. This is what happens when the enemy does not fear you, especially the enemy incapable of adult thinking.
I believe Mr. Putin and the Russians reluctantly began the SMO with a clear understanding of the minimal terms for its eventual conclusion. The cost to be paid for the attainment of those terms will be determined by the actions of the western governments acting as proxies for the globalist cartels. What will Putin do? He will do what becomes necessary.
The immediate concern is KNPP, within 300 km from the Ukraine-controlled area. Otherwise, 500 km cruise missiles or 300 km ballistic missiles, due to their limited number, is only part of the attrition war. Some unlucky souls will be lost. But nothing really permanent as long as KNPP is intact. The problem is, the leadership in the West and Ukraine are not normal logical persons. Cuban Missile Brinksmanship was possible only because both sides were very logical and USA promised to move nukes out of Turkey. This kind of handling will not happen with Biden's government or the US-aligned European countries. No matter what end-game plan Mr. Putin has, within the next six weeks he has to release a significant chunk of long-range stand-off arsenals. What to happen will force his hands.
Trump has much more to gain financially from Russia than a depleted Ukraine. Follow the reasoning of an ultimate business man.
Yes. Ukraine has resources that some senators salivate over, but that doesn't make Ukraine a winner. Wish everyone knew the history of the Holodomor. History has a great deal to tell us if it were not so damn hidden from us. Comment from a deep diver.
Trump is not Blackrock. He prefers to build golf courses and resorts, projects that depend on prosperity to thrive.
I believe you are right that the globalists destroying the Ukraine stand to be thwarted in their aims, if Russia stays the course. I also believe sane persons like us tend to underestimate the depravity and desperation of these people.
I believe we all need to create National state banks like the Bank of North Dakota and quit giving our treasure to people who misuse it to hurt us and others.
Let's not overcomplicate things.
Russia's best bet would be to continue to destroy Nazi-led AFU forces until they surrender.
There is no appeasing the US and its four main proxy amigos. (Ukraine, Germany, France, and the UK)
Press forward, Russia, and attack, attack, attack. Keep pushing AFU forces back relentlessly to capitulation. The harder Ukraine resists with strategically fruitless plans the harder Russia tightens the noose leading to the ultimate defeat of Ukraine and the departure of the Zelensky regime.
This is a historic moment for Russia. Either Russia boldly captures Ukraine now while it can or they'll always face a threat on its Western Front for having caved into some kind of temporary compromise.
Whatever missiles Ukraine gets won't change AFU and Zelensky's terminal fate if only Russia has the fortitude to commit and do what it takes to completely neutralize NATO on its Western front by forcing Ukraine's surrender.
Attack, attack, attack.
"...the departure of the Zelensky regime."
Zelensky and the 'Ukrainian' governments before him were of little significance.
"Attack, attack, attack."
Slowly, slowly catchee monkey.
lol
Isn’t that what Nathan Bedford Forrest said?
Quite possibly; a lot of people have said it. Generally, people here (in the UK) tend to think the impetus for its modern use came from Kipling.
I believe this is, more likely, accurately definitive: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/softly,_softly,_catchee_monkey.
Couldn't find it on 'Wikipedia' for Nathan Bedford Forrest, for what it's worth: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_Bedford_Forrest.
He said, "He who gets there fastest with the mostest catchee monkey."
Russia needed to attack a long time ago. The West will only continue to attack, as long as Russia fears escalation.
"The West will only continue to attack, as long as Russia fears escalation". Exactly. The next year will be telling and I sense that Putin will come up short. How can Russia be distinct (BRICS) when, at the same time, it is part of the G20 with similar policies as Agenda 2030? East and West look more alike in policy than distinct from one another like democrats and republicans. (wings of the same bird) lol
The problem is that Russia does not seek to destroy The West. Rather, they want to join it, and appear to continually tell themselves that this is a lover's quarrel that soon will be over and all will be patched up.
The West, by contrast, clearly seeks nothing less than the destruction of Russia, and is willing to gamble with life on earth to get what it wants.
True that.
Putin is NOT the only politician in Russia. Everyone there, with the exception of weirdos and fruitcakes — losers, is on the same side. One of my favourite mantras is, 'The greatest difference between Russia and the West is that they have good politicians in Russia.' True, Putin took fantastic advantage of the difficult circumstances he had to deal with. He is not, however, alone.
In fact, before all this NATO nonsense, i.e. pre-2022, for many years and increasingly his greatest challenge had been finding some way to be replaced. I believe he is unique in this respect: as far as I'm aware, great men, who successfully wield great power, haven't paid enough attention to what is to come after them. Putin has addressed this question. True, we don't yet know how well he manages to resolve it but his attempts and the focus of his attention, particularly before the West distracted him, have been as laudable as I believe they are rare.
I think that's a big part of the problem among those who understand the situation in the West: jealousy. Like boys, who poke sticks through the wheels of other boys with nicer bikes, politicians in the West hate Putin's success.
Well said, McD. Speaking of jealousy, Do you think I'm jealous here in Canada with Trudeau as the leader, who I can't look at or listen to, looking at Putin in Russia thinking I'm on the wrong side of the world, man? Oh well, I'll have to settle for both Trudeau and Zelensky to be gone next year. lol
Well, I don't know your position or circumstances. If you're a relatively high-level politician relying on popular vote to feed and finance you, then yes, I can imagine why you might be jealous; and if you were in Trudeau's position — with notoriously low credibility, probably as low as your mortgage and other obligations are high — I should think you must be absolutely boiling green with furious envy at Putin's success. The irony is, of course, all Western politicians would have to do to earn reputations and respect comparable to how 70-80% of the Russians' electorate relate to Putin, would be to try to make the electorate's life better as hard as they try to make their own lives better. And the GRAND IRONY is that they (politicians in the West) don't actually make their lives any better by making themselves so rich, which is precisely why they're so bloody unhappy and have no idea how to make their electorate any happier.
I don't know what Trudeau can expect in Canada, not being au fait with the details of electoral politics there (other than to expect it's pretty much the same as in any 5-eyes country). I don't think you would need to hold your breath for very long to see the end of Zelensky, though. He could be disappeared, one way or another, any day.
"...looking at Putin in Russia thinking I'm on the wrong side of the world, man?"
You know, another thing I'd meant to touch upon (but got distracted) is the new laws on immimgration in Russia now. They understand what's happening in the West and would like to make everyone's lives better by offering a better life to people suffering here. If you're capable of making a positive contribution to their society and willing to work to do so, you may well be able to find a better place for yourself there now.
Just a thought.
As if the USA and NATO have not been directly involved in this conflict all along! Proxy war my ass! The Zionist plan for Russia is a "strategic defeat." I can't make that any clearer except to say Russia's very existence as a nation is what this is all about. I have no idea what Russia will do besides what it has been doing and did last night with the most devastating attack on Ukraine's power grid all over the country. Ukraine, NATO and the USA are all but declared DOA. Add to that the massive casualties Ukraine is suffering daily all along the front and there just isn't much left. End results: America loses, NATO crumbles, the EU falls apart, and what is left of Ukraine is a rump state whose future depends on Russia and China.
I agree monsieur Tremblay. You should understand that this is much more complex and deep than a “Zionist plan” though. Follow the works of @Matthew Ehret here on Substack. The Illuminati are still lurking in the shadows…
The problem is we have no clue what Russia is going to settle for in Ukraine. We'll know the score when the cards have been dropped. We all know the US and NATO are involved in Ukraine but they haven't made it official yet.
Extremely counterproductive move by the declining hegemonic powers. Militarily of no significance. The Russian military is unstoppable, a couple of Western missiles make no difference. BUT, any inhibitions Russia had re arming Iran, Ansarallah, Syria, Iraq, etc., are now history. Russia will respond thoughtfully and asymmetrically, not with brute force. Brute force is the language of the West, not Russia. Israel is currently the best case study of Western 'wisdom'.
"What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander".
There are other fronts than Ukraine, and the response may be like-for-like.. NATO/US has vulnerabilities in the MENA zone, and there are forces there who would gladly accept upgraded strike capabilities.
"...no reason to expect him to jump out of character and significantly escalate..."
None whatsoever: it's been patently clear how this would all end from the moment the Americans lost their 'Great (Counter-)Offensive' in June last year. (Actually, it was pretty clear long before that, even before the coup ('Revolution of Dignity') in 2014.) There are absolutely no logical grounds for Russia ('Putin', if you prefer) to do anything whatsoever to change that.
"... serious opportunity costs for Russia."
What, you wanna bargain ALREADY?!
"...it would have been better..."
Everybody's an armchair Kennedy-Khrushyov!
"...more escalation or a possible compromise."
Or just business as (the new) normal: a slow, steady grind to unconditional surrender (Победа!).
Is not this part of USA waning hegemony? There's all this argument about whether Trump will go for one side or the other, yet how would it make any kind of sense to side with Ukraine? Trump is a dealer and he will side always with winners. He has a hard row to hoe with politics in the USA which always depends on an uninformed public.
Trump was and is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Good post thoughtful sir. I myself am predicting a step up in aggressiveness on the Ukrainian front, with a required expansion of "buffer zones" to account for the range of weapons provided. Secondly, I'm predicting increased funding and military assistance to third parities, other "proxies" if you will, that are hostile to the United States and NATO. This would be a step-by-step match for the actions that have been taken, without any kind of emotional or reckless response. I'm with you in thinking that Mr. Putin does *not* want escalation into WW3. No sane person does.
Of course, my thinking may be wishful. Clearly it is. I'm wishing, hoping, and praying for restraint until things can be corrected. The alternative is, well, unthinkable.
According to some, Russia still has the escalation dominance. I don’t know what that will be, but given how rational and patient Russian behaviour has been, nukes are out of question.
There is no winning a war between nuclear armed powers. There is only apocalypse. The Russians should understand that there is a large contingent of the West which, while it does not like Putin or the Russian government, is strongly opposed to the war and neoconservative aggression since the fall of the USSR.
Xenophobia and media narratives cannot last forever. In the end the truth will out. We need to keep the temperature down until then, or the only alternative is global thermonuclear war.
On the Russian side I think the best way to effect this is through outreach. The Tucker Carlson interview was a brilliant idea. Do more things like that. Ignore the leaders and media, discuss with the people instead.
On the Western side the best way to effect this is through the wholesale destruction of the mainstream media, the whore of the neocons. Thankfully this is already well underway. Nobody trusts them anymore. The neocon narrative around the war is crumbling. Nobody believes the nightly news anymore: they are doing their own research - in depth and without apology.
We have been at the brink before and have come back from it. We can do it again.
Doing more like Tuck Carlson's interview won't help much, as Americans can do nothing about their government.
The American government seems to expend an awfully great amount of money and time forming and shaping the opinions of their citizens for that to be true.
President Putin said military bases of U$a-NATO will become targets. Probably has set up air defense capabilities in advance of this. Will continue to advance with SMO. This cannot come as surprise to Russian leaders. No need for rash behavior. Simply carry on.
I don’t understand the apparent reluctance on Russia’s part to interdict the public receipt of weapons at the Kiev airport.
It is obvious Putin desires a negotiated peace. He is not going to escalate in a fashion which the outgoing administration through this provocation desires. He will wait until the Trump administration is in office, especially since Trump has consistently spoken about ending this war. If Trump instead continues with the current warmongering, there is a real danger of escalation. Putin committed a strategic error when he did not build up an overwhelming conventional force necessary to win through conventional means. This was interpreted as a weakness which invited a constant escalation from the Western Empire. This is what happens when the enemy does not fear you, especially the enemy incapable of adult thinking.
That's idiotic neocon cult thinking that leads one to where America is today... ie, no cards to play.
I believe Mr. Putin and the Russians reluctantly began the SMO with a clear understanding of the minimal terms for its eventual conclusion. The cost to be paid for the attainment of those terms will be determined by the actions of the western governments acting as proxies for the globalist cartels. What will Putin do? He will do what becomes necessary.
The immediate concern is KNPP, within 300 km from the Ukraine-controlled area. Otherwise, 500 km cruise missiles or 300 km ballistic missiles, due to their limited number, is only part of the attrition war. Some unlucky souls will be lost. But nothing really permanent as long as KNPP is intact. The problem is, the leadership in the West and Ukraine are not normal logical persons. Cuban Missile Brinksmanship was possible only because both sides were very logical and USA promised to move nukes out of Turkey. This kind of handling will not happen with Biden's government or the US-aligned European countries. No matter what end-game plan Mr. Putin has, within the next six weeks he has to release a significant chunk of long-range stand-off arsenals. What to happen will force his hands.
Russia is run by a coward in the Kremlin. That is the problem.
Trump has much more to gain financially from Russia than a depleted Ukraine. Follow the reasoning of an ultimate business man.
Yes. Ukraine has resources that some senators salivate over, but that doesn't make Ukraine a winner. Wish everyone knew the history of the Holodomor. History has a great deal to tell us if it were not so damn hidden from us. Comment from a deep diver.
Trump is not Blackrock. He prefers to build golf courses and resorts, projects that depend on prosperity to thrive.
I believe you are right that the globalists destroying the Ukraine stand to be thwarted in their aims, if Russia stays the course. I also believe sane persons like us tend to underestimate the depravity and desperation of these people.
I believe we all need to create National state banks like the Bank of North Dakota and quit giving our treasure to people who misuse it to hurt us and others.
I sat for 6 hours and watched the following. I also watched Europa.
https://archive.org/details/adolfhitlerthegreateststorynevertoldfull6hoursdocumentary_201909
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.