It remains unclear what Putin will ultimately do, but whichever of these two choices he makes will determine the trajectory of this conflict from now on, either more escalation or a possible compromise.
Russia's best bet would be to continue to destroy Nazi-led AFU forces until they surrender.
There is no appeasing the US and its four main proxy amigos. (Ukraine, Germany, France, and the UK)
Press forward, Russia, and attack, attack, attack. Keep pushing AFU forces back relentlessly to capitulation. The harder Ukraine resists with strategically fruitless plans the harder Russia tightens the noose leading to the ultimate defeat of Ukraine and the departure of the Zelensky regime.
This is a historic moment for Russia. Either Russia boldly captures Ukraine now while it can or they'll always face a threat on its Western Front for having caved into some kind of temporary compromise.
Whatever missiles Ukraine gets won't change AFU and Zelensky's terminal fate if only Russia has the fortitude to commit and do what it takes to completely neutralize NATO on its Western front by forcing Ukraine's surrender.
As if the USA and NATO have not been directly involved in this conflict all along! Proxy war my ass! The Zionist plan for Russia is a "strategic defeat." I can't make that any clearer except to say Russia's very existence as a nation is what this is all about. I have no idea what Russia will do besides what it has been doing and did last night with the most devastating attack on Ukraine's power grid all over the country. Ukraine, NATO and the USA are all but declared DOA. Add to that the massive casualties Ukraine is suffering daily all along the front and there just isn't much left. End results: America loses, NATO crumbles, the EU falls apart, and what is left of Ukraine is a rump state whose future depends on Russia and China.
I agree monsieur Tremblay. You should understand that this is much more complex and deep than a “Zionist plan” though. Follow the works of @Matthew Ehret here on Substack. The Illuminati are still lurking in the shadows…
"What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander".
There are other fronts than Ukraine, and the response may be like-for-like.. NATO/US has vulnerabilities in the MENA zone, and there are forces there who would gladly accept upgraded strike capabilities.
Is not this part of USA waning hegemony? There's all this argument about whether Trump will go for one side or the other, yet how would it make any kind of sense to side with Ukraine? Trump is a dealer and he will side always with winners. He has a hard row to hoe with politics in the USA which always depends on an uninformed public.
Extremely counterproductive move by the declining hegemonic powers. Militarily of no significance. The Russian military is unstoppable, a couple of Western missiles make no difference. BUT, any inhibitions Russia had re arming Iran, Ansarallah, Syria, Iraq, etc., are now history. Russia will respond thoughtfully and asymmetrically, not with brute force. Brute force is the language of the West, not Russia. Israel is currently the best case study of Western 'wisdom'.
"...no reason to expect him to jump out of character and significantly escalate..."
None whatsoever: it's been patently clear how this would all end from the moment the Americans lost their 'Great (Counter-)Offensive' in June last year. (Actually, it was pretty clear long before that, even before the coup ('Revolution of Dignity') in 2014.) There are absolutely no logical grounds for Russia ('Putin', if you prefer) to do anything whatsoever to change that.
"... serious opportunity costs for Russia."
What, you wanna bargain ALREADY?!
"...it would have been better..."
Everybody's an armchair Kennedy-Khrushyov!
"...more escalation or a possible compromise."
Or just business as (the new) normal: a slow, steady grind to unconditional surrender (Победа!).
Good post thoughtful sir. I myself am predicting a step up in aggressiveness on the Ukrainian front, with a required expansion of "buffer zones" to account for the range of weapons provided. Secondly, I'm predicting increased funding and military assistance to third parities, other "proxies" if you will, that are hostile to the United States and NATO. This would be a step-by-step match for the actions that have been taken, without any kind of emotional or reckless response. I'm with you in thinking that Mr. Putin does *not* want escalation into WW3. No sane person does.
Of course, my thinking may be wishful. Clearly it is. I'm wishing, hoping, and praying for restraint until things can be corrected. The alternative is, well, unthinkable.
It is obvious Putin desires a negotiated peace. He is not going to escalate in a fashion which the outgoing administration through this provocation desires. He will wait until the Trump administration is in office, especially since Trump has consistently spoken about ending this war. If Trump instead continues with the current warmongering, there is a real danger of escalation. Putin committed a strategic error when he did not build up an overwhelming conventional force necessary to win through conventional means. This was interpreted as a weakness which invited a constant escalation from the Western Empire. This is what happens when the enemy does not fear you, especially the enemy incapable of adult thinking.
I believe Mr. Putin and the Russians reluctantly began the SMO with a clear understanding of the minimal terms for its eventual conclusion. The cost to be paid for the attainment of those terms will be determined by the actions of the western governments acting as proxies for the globalist cartels. What will Putin do? He will do what becomes necessary.
The immediate concern is KNPP, within 300 km from the Ukraine-controlled area. Otherwise, 500 km cruise missiles or 300 km ballistic missiles, due to their limited number, is only part of the attrition war. Some unlucky souls will be lost. But nothing really permanent as long as KNPP is intact. The problem is, the leadership in the West and Ukraine are not normal logical persons. Cuban Missile Brinksmanship was possible only because both sides were very logical and USA promised to move nukes out of Turkey. This kind of handling will not happen with Biden's government or the US-aligned European countries. No matter what end-game plan Mr. Putin has, within the next six weeks he has to release a significant chunk of long-range stand-off arsenals. What to happen will force his hands.
Good article. Those long-range missiles will only have the effect of shortening the life of Zelensky. Either Russia will hunt him down or his own countrymen will Mussolini him. Both Russia and Israel are going full-steam ahead until January 20th when Trump takes office.
Trump has much more to gain financially from Russia than a depleted Ukraine. Follow the reasoning of an ultimate business man.
Yes. Ukraine has resources that some senators salivate over, but that doesn't make Ukraine a winner. Wish everyone knew the history of the Holodomor. History has a great deal to tell us if it were not so damn hidden from us. Comment from a deep diver.
Trump is not Blackrock. He prefers to build golf courses and resorts, projects that depend on prosperity to thrive.
I believe you are right that the globalists destroying the Ukraine stand to be thwarted in their aims, if Russia stays the course. I also believe sane persons like us tend to underestimate the depravity and desperation of these people.
Trump must demand that Biden back down immediately. If Biden does not, Trump should announce that the President-elect considers this an attempt to hamstring the incoming administration. Biden has thrown down the gauntlet and if Trump doesn't pick it up now his ability to mold his own foreign policy in Europe is cooked.
Unfortunately, the reality is that Mr. Trump can do zero about this sort of thing. Recall Operation "Restore Hope" under Mr. Bush. A big fat mess to hand to Mr. Clinton.
Let's not overcomplicate things.
Russia's best bet would be to continue to destroy Nazi-led AFU forces until they surrender.
There is no appeasing the US and its four main proxy amigos. (Ukraine, Germany, France, and the UK)
Press forward, Russia, and attack, attack, attack. Keep pushing AFU forces back relentlessly to capitulation. The harder Ukraine resists with strategically fruitless plans the harder Russia tightens the noose leading to the ultimate defeat of Ukraine and the departure of the Zelensky regime.
This is a historic moment for Russia. Either Russia boldly captures Ukraine now while it can or they'll always face a threat on its Western Front for having caved into some kind of temporary compromise.
Whatever missiles Ukraine gets won't change AFU and Zelensky's terminal fate if only Russia has the fortitude to commit and do what it takes to completely neutralize NATO on its Western front by forcing Ukraine's surrender.
Attack, attack, attack.
"...the departure of the Zelensky regime."
Zelensky and the 'Ukrainian' governments before him were of little significance.
"Attack, attack, attack."
Slowly, slowly catchee monkey.
Russia needed to attack a long time ago. The West will only continue to attack, as long as Russia fears escalation.
As if the USA and NATO have not been directly involved in this conflict all along! Proxy war my ass! The Zionist plan for Russia is a "strategic defeat." I can't make that any clearer except to say Russia's very existence as a nation is what this is all about. I have no idea what Russia will do besides what it has been doing and did last night with the most devastating attack on Ukraine's power grid all over the country. Ukraine, NATO and the USA are all but declared DOA. Add to that the massive casualties Ukraine is suffering daily all along the front and there just isn't much left. End results: America loses, NATO crumbles, the EU falls apart, and what is left of Ukraine is a rump state whose future depends on Russia and China.
I agree monsieur Tremblay. You should understand that this is much more complex and deep than a “Zionist plan” though. Follow the works of @Matthew Ehret here on Substack. The Illuminati are still lurking in the shadows…
"What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander".
There are other fronts than Ukraine, and the response may be like-for-like.. NATO/US has vulnerabilities in the MENA zone, and there are forces there who would gladly accept upgraded strike capabilities.
Is not this part of USA waning hegemony? There's all this argument about whether Trump will go for one side or the other, yet how would it make any kind of sense to side with Ukraine? Trump is a dealer and he will side always with winners. He has a hard row to hoe with politics in the USA which always depends on an uninformed public.
Trump was and is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Extremely counterproductive move by the declining hegemonic powers. Militarily of no significance. The Russian military is unstoppable, a couple of Western missiles make no difference. BUT, any inhibitions Russia had re arming Iran, Ansarallah, Syria, Iraq, etc., are now history. Russia will respond thoughtfully and asymmetrically, not with brute force. Brute force is the language of the West, not Russia. Israel is currently the best case study of Western 'wisdom'.
"...no reason to expect him to jump out of character and significantly escalate..."
None whatsoever: it's been patently clear how this would all end from the moment the Americans lost their 'Great (Counter-)Offensive' in June last year. (Actually, it was pretty clear long before that, even before the coup ('Revolution of Dignity') in 2014.) There are absolutely no logical grounds for Russia ('Putin', if you prefer) to do anything whatsoever to change that.
"... serious opportunity costs for Russia."
What, you wanna bargain ALREADY?!
"...it would have been better..."
Everybody's an armchair Kennedy-Khrushyov!
"...more escalation or a possible compromise."
Or just business as (the new) normal: a slow, steady grind to unconditional surrender (Победа!).
Good post thoughtful sir. I myself am predicting a step up in aggressiveness on the Ukrainian front, with a required expansion of "buffer zones" to account for the range of weapons provided. Secondly, I'm predicting increased funding and military assistance to third parities, other "proxies" if you will, that are hostile to the United States and NATO. This would be a step-by-step match for the actions that have been taken, without any kind of emotional or reckless response. I'm with you in thinking that Mr. Putin does *not* want escalation into WW3. No sane person does.
Of course, my thinking may be wishful. Clearly it is. I'm wishing, hoping, and praying for restraint until things can be corrected. The alternative is, well, unthinkable.
Russia is run by a coward in the Kremlin. That is the problem.
The West called Russia's latest bluff. The West will only continue to escalate.
It is obvious Putin desires a negotiated peace. He is not going to escalate in a fashion which the outgoing administration through this provocation desires. He will wait until the Trump administration is in office, especially since Trump has consistently spoken about ending this war. If Trump instead continues with the current warmongering, there is a real danger of escalation. Putin committed a strategic error when he did not build up an overwhelming conventional force necessary to win through conventional means. This was interpreted as a weakness which invited a constant escalation from the Western Empire. This is what happens when the enemy does not fear you, especially the enemy incapable of adult thinking.
I believe Mr. Putin and the Russians reluctantly began the SMO with a clear understanding of the minimal terms for its eventual conclusion. The cost to be paid for the attainment of those terms will be determined by the actions of the western governments acting as proxies for the globalist cartels. What will Putin do? He will do what becomes necessary.
The immediate concern is KNPP, within 300 km from the Ukraine-controlled area. Otherwise, 500 km cruise missiles or 300 km ballistic missiles, due to their limited number, is only part of the attrition war. Some unlucky souls will be lost. But nothing really permanent as long as KNPP is intact. The problem is, the leadership in the West and Ukraine are not normal logical persons. Cuban Missile Brinksmanship was possible only because both sides were very logical and USA promised to move nukes out of Turkey. This kind of handling will not happen with Biden's government or the US-aligned European countries. No matter what end-game plan Mr. Putin has, within the next six weeks he has to release a significant chunk of long-range stand-off arsenals. What to happen will force his hands.
Good article. Those long-range missiles will only have the effect of shortening the life of Zelensky. Either Russia will hunt him down or his own countrymen will Mussolini him. Both Russia and Israel are going full-steam ahead until January 20th when Trump takes office.
Trump has much more to gain financially from Russia than a depleted Ukraine. Follow the reasoning of an ultimate business man.
Yes. Ukraine has resources that some senators salivate over, but that doesn't make Ukraine a winner. Wish everyone knew the history of the Holodomor. History has a great deal to tell us if it were not so damn hidden from us. Comment from a deep diver.
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Trump is not Blackrock. He prefers to build golf courses and resorts, projects that depend on prosperity to thrive.
I believe you are right that the globalists destroying the Ukraine stand to be thwarted in their aims, if Russia stays the course. I also believe sane persons like us tend to underestimate the depravity and desperation of these people.
Putin did not fain hyperbole with the warning of use of tactical nuclear weapons
Trump must demand that Biden back down immediately. If Biden does not, Trump should announce that the President-elect considers this an attempt to hamstring the incoming administration. Biden has thrown down the gauntlet and if Trump doesn't pick it up now his ability to mold his own foreign policy in Europe is cooked.
Unfortunately, the reality is that Mr. Trump can do zero about this sort of thing. Recall Operation "Restore Hope" under Mr. Bush. A big fat mess to hand to Mr. Clinton.