The argument can be made that this is a mutually beneficial way to advance their respective ulterior interests and isn’t as substantive as some might have initially thought due to the serious political and technical challenges that this project faces.
Isn't it possible that this MoU is just a thread amongst others to help join the nations and regions ? Russia has a low-ball figure of (equivalent) $76 trillion in unrealised natural resources and that making money isn't the goal as long as Russia can cover costs. Gleneagles Hotel is known around the world and it makes no profit - it is a "lost leader" in business terms, often financially supported by other businesses in the portfolio of the owners but it is a prestige investment that brings many other non-fiscal rewards - it isn't a great analogy but it holds water. Iran/Russia relations are important - as the author states, this sounds political yet still important.
Yes, the intent is to hopefully tie everyone together into one big happy multipolar family and all that, but the political reality is that this is a pipe dream (albeit a noble one) that's going to be very difficult to implement if at all.
I also don't foresee Russia sacrificing profit from resource sales by solely breaking even -- or possibly also taking a loss -- on resource sales for strategic reasons, it would be way too scandalous to abandon all that potential revenue.
These pie in the sky ideas are fun to talk about and keep up the morale of one's supporters, but they also risk leading to false expectations that inevitably result in deep disappointment, thus possibly ending up with some folks becoming apathetic or even "defecting".
I sincerely hope that something meaningful comes out of this, but I very much doubt that it would unless Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan completely change their perspective of regional energy geopolitics, which I don't expect.
The only possible scenario, however unlikely, is that a quid pro quo is agreed to whereby those two and Kazakh let Russia and Iran build their undersea pipeline in exchange for Turkmenistan being allowed to build its own (possibly supplied in part by Kazakhstan) to Azerbaijan.
That last-mentioned possibility has been discussed for years but never came to fruition since Russia and Iran were always against it, just like those two are predictably going to be against this latest proposal in response. It's a very difficult dilemma to manage.
I don't doubt you especially as all I know about it comes from your own article. I do know what you mean regarding "false expectations" - I remember both the hope and disappointment that came when Russia stepped into the US proxy war in Syria when "ISIS was 3 weeks from Damascus", I myself hoped that Russia would defeat the USA and its vassals and drive them from Syria and it took some time to realise when the US still controlled a third of the country that Russia had still done more for Syria and the Syrian people than any other nation on Earth, yes the USA still squats in the food and revenue centre of Syria but it is still (amazingly) better than a Balkanised Syria with an ISIS caliphate supported by the United States of Israel - that doesn't bear thinking about. I do hope in the revised Russian foreign policy that they arm to the teeth Syria and all those militias that despise the US and its many proxies.
Mercouris said that the "Stans" were not automatic allies of Russia due to complicated and bloody history but they reliably backed what they regarded as "the winners" well Russia is the winner in this region, Armenia is finding that out right now. Geopolitics rules. The untrustworthy Turks may actually help with Azerbaijan and if Armenia implodes with Russia putting their relations in to "frozen" mode things could change. There is also a "core" in all these states that know that stability, economic development and cooperation are always the best way forward. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, as always.
But didn’t I read somewhere that Iran is among the top five countries based on known gas reserves? If that remains true then what are the long term prospects of a long pipeline? And $.10/cubic meter seems like distress pricing.
Yes, it has some of the largest gas reserves in the world, but underdeveloped extraction and transport infrastructure, largely due to years of crippling sanctions.
That's why it's interested in a Russian swap arrangement in the first place since it's theoretically easier to build new foreign pipelines (ideally via Azerbaijan and/or Turkmenistan) than to develop the resources within its borders.
The challenge though is that Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan might not want to approve this, plus Iran might feel uncomfortable being dependent on their territories for transit.
It seemingly hopes that some solution will be reached, but the odds aren't in its favor due to how formidable the obstacles are. Perhaps something might come out of this MoU, but I'm not getting my hopes too high to be honest.
Pipelines can flow in either direction, and once built they are the cheapest form of energy transportation. Iran's gas fields may be underdeveloped right now due to sanctions, but that doesn't stop Russia from helping them. The main obstacle is that they'd be aiding their competition, but a time may come when a gas cartel makes more sense, at least to its members. Be nice to have a pipeline in place when (if) that moment comes.
Funny how things work out. Baku was where the whole oil/gas energy thing started, and now a new energy complex may be emerging in the same location.
Check this out. I love these govt. sponsored pop videos that try to instill patriotism.
Isn't it possible that this MoU is just a thread amongst others to help join the nations and regions ? Russia has a low-ball figure of (equivalent) $76 trillion in unrealised natural resources and that making money isn't the goal as long as Russia can cover costs. Gleneagles Hotel is known around the world and it makes no profit - it is a "lost leader" in business terms, often financially supported by other businesses in the portfolio of the owners but it is a prestige investment that brings many other non-fiscal rewards - it isn't a great analogy but it holds water. Iran/Russia relations are important - as the author states, this sounds political yet still important.
Yes, the intent is to hopefully tie everyone together into one big happy multipolar family and all that, but the political reality is that this is a pipe dream (albeit a noble one) that's going to be very difficult to implement if at all.
I also don't foresee Russia sacrificing profit from resource sales by solely breaking even -- or possibly also taking a loss -- on resource sales for strategic reasons, it would be way too scandalous to abandon all that potential revenue.
These pie in the sky ideas are fun to talk about and keep up the morale of one's supporters, but they also risk leading to false expectations that inevitably result in deep disappointment, thus possibly ending up with some folks becoming apathetic or even "defecting".
I sincerely hope that something meaningful comes out of this, but I very much doubt that it would unless Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan completely change their perspective of regional energy geopolitics, which I don't expect.
The only possible scenario, however unlikely, is that a quid pro quo is agreed to whereby those two and Kazakh let Russia and Iran build their undersea pipeline in exchange for Turkmenistan being allowed to build its own (possibly supplied in part by Kazakhstan) to Azerbaijan.
That last-mentioned possibility has been discussed for years but never came to fruition since Russia and Iran were always against it, just like those two are predictably going to be against this latest proposal in response. It's a very difficult dilemma to manage.
I don't doubt you especially as all I know about it comes from your own article. I do know what you mean regarding "false expectations" - I remember both the hope and disappointment that came when Russia stepped into the US proxy war in Syria when "ISIS was 3 weeks from Damascus", I myself hoped that Russia would defeat the USA and its vassals and drive them from Syria and it took some time to realise when the US still controlled a third of the country that Russia had still done more for Syria and the Syrian people than any other nation on Earth, yes the USA still squats in the food and revenue centre of Syria but it is still (amazingly) better than a Balkanised Syria with an ISIS caliphate supported by the United States of Israel - that doesn't bear thinking about. I do hope in the revised Russian foreign policy that they arm to the teeth Syria and all those militias that despise the US and its many proxies.
Mercouris said that the "Stans" were not automatic allies of Russia due to complicated and bloody history but they reliably backed what they regarded as "the winners" well Russia is the winner in this region, Armenia is finding that out right now. Geopolitics rules. The untrustworthy Turks may actually help with Azerbaijan and if Armenia implodes with Russia putting their relations in to "frozen" mode things could change. There is also a "core" in all these states that know that stability, economic development and cooperation are always the best way forward. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, as always.
But didn’t I read somewhere that Iran is among the top five countries based on known gas reserves? If that remains true then what are the long term prospects of a long pipeline? And $.10/cubic meter seems like distress pricing.
Yes, it has some of the largest gas reserves in the world, but underdeveloped extraction and transport infrastructure, largely due to years of crippling sanctions.
That's why it's interested in a Russian swap arrangement in the first place since it's theoretically easier to build new foreign pipelines (ideally via Azerbaijan and/or Turkmenistan) than to develop the resources within its borders.
The challenge though is that Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan might not want to approve this, plus Iran might feel uncomfortable being dependent on their territories for transit.
It seemingly hopes that some solution will be reached, but the odds aren't in its favor due to how formidable the obstacles are. Perhaps something might come out of this MoU, but I'm not getting my hopes too high to be honest.
"...what are the long term prospects..."
Pipelines can flow in either direction, and once built they are the cheapest form of energy transportation. Iran's gas fields may be underdeveloped right now due to sanctions, but that doesn't stop Russia from helping them. The main obstacle is that they'd be aiding their competition, but a time may come when a gas cartel makes more sense, at least to its members. Be nice to have a pipeline in place when (if) that moment comes.
Funny how things work out. Baku was where the whole oil/gas energy thing started, and now a new energy complex may be emerging in the same location.
Check this out. I love these govt. sponsored pop videos that try to instill patriotism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGR7_gdUz3M
everyone in central Asia seems to have one. Here's a few more for comparison:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoEweBU0ABY
The Kazakh ones are right over the top...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRx6EKCwHlw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FlBCJbb2oo
This one's my favourite.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpuFKjSsuHA