The Re-Establishment Of American Drone Bases In Pakistan Would Be Mutually Detrimental

The speculation prompted by Balochistan interim Information Minister Jan Achakzai’s now-deleted tweet is probably just a tempest in a teapot.

Balochistan’s interim Information Minister Jan Achakzai requested US drone bases in a now-deleted tweet that he published last week right after terrorists carried out a deadly attack against a Pakistani military base and shortly before Chief Of Army Staff Asim Munir made his first visit to the US. This prompted speculation that the latter’s trip might have sought to advance Achakzai’s proposal, though there are compelling arguments for why nothing of the sort is likely being considered.

For starters, his request was part of a comprehensive response plan to rising terrorist attacks across the country that Pakistan believes are tied to the Afghan Taliban, with whom it’s been embroiled in a spiraling security dilemma for the past fifteen months. He clearly invested some time into thinking about his seven proposed steps, which also include expelling all Afghan refugees and carrying out reprisal attacks, but these are ultimately just his personal suggestions and shouldn’t be seen as official policy.

The next point to make is that the aforementioned security dilemma is partially driven by the Taliban’s suspicions that Pakistan has reverted to its traditional role as America’s top regional proxy in the aftermath of April 2022’s post-modern coup against former Prime Minister Imran Khan. While there have previously been reports that Pakistan has allowed US drones to use its airspace for Afghan-related operations, this doesn’t mean that an American base has been established in that country.

In fact, such a scenario would be mutually detrimental. From Pakistan’s perspective, the Taliban would present such bases as proof that this country is indeed a US vassal and thus likely ramp up its attacks on that pretext. Protests could also break out over this issue too. As for America, voters might sour even more on Biden than they already are ahead of the next elections if they fear that he’s getting them involved in Afghanistan yet again after disastrously pulling out from there two and a half years ago.

It's one thing for the US to possibly surveil and even strike Afghan-based targets using drones launched from an aircraft carrier and/or their base in Qatar, and another entirely to position related assets on the ground in Pakistan, where they could also be targeted by these same terrorists. The first retains a degree of plausible deniability and entails no physical costs, while the second removes such deniability and involves unnecessary risks to personnel.

The final argument to make against the re-establishment of American drone bases in Pakistan is that the host country should ideally seek to expand its own drone capabilities instead of relying on the US’. This is the hottest military technology right now as proven by the game-changing way in which it’s been wielded by both sides throughout the course of Russia’s special operation. Ignoring these developments in favor of “outsourcing security” like before would amount to a dereliction of duty by the Armed Forces.

With this in mind, it’s much more realistic to expect Pakistan to invest in its own drone capabilities than to request that the US set up such a base on its territory. To that end, it might explore opportunities for cooperating with America, though progress might be impeded by the US’ reluctance to offend India any more than it already has given their spiraling dispute over hosting Delhi-designated terrorists-separatists. For that reason, indigenous investments coupled with speculative Chinese support is more likely.

All told, the speculation prompted by Achakzai’s now-deleted tweet is probably just a tempest in a teapot seeing as how it’s mutually detrimental for Pakistan and the US to re-establish American drone bases. That scenario of course can’t be ruled out, but it’s unlikely for the reasons argued in this analysis. The importance of his now-deleted tweet is that Pakistan appears to be seriously considering ways in which to kinetically respond to the Taliban after the latest spree of terrorist attacks all across the country.