Rhetoric from leading Alt-Media influencers and hawkish Russian officials aside, the reality is that direct and indirect complex interdependencies with the non-West and the West respectively place limits on Russian policy.
Just asking: to promote some of points, have you tried to reach out to The Duran and be a guest there on a panel discussion? That is a good starting point potentially.
Thanks Peti, and regarding The Duran, I used to publish on their site years ago but lost touch with the two Alexes. We also have a one-year-old in our family now so it's not possible to do phone or video interviews since the baby could disrupt them. But I do plan to try to get back into that circuit in a few years when it's more convenient for me.
>The situation is altogether different with the AMC, many of whose members like Russia so much because they truly thought that Putin would “crash the Western economy” as a form of “historical justice”.<
It would be helpful if you gave some examples because I haven't seen this view expressed outside of some fringe publications with relatively small audiences.
Seems to me the West has been doing a stellar job of crashing their own economies without any help from Russia, Nordstream II being a prime example. What exactly are the alleged actions claimed by AMC that Russia is taking to bring about this crash? By-passing the Swift system? Adding new BRICS members? Those seem more like reactions than initiatives. Can you provide some specific examples since "many of whose members" seems to imply a widespread belief, which as I said, I haven't seen much evidence for.
As usual, a sober and balanced analysis. Thank you!
Some reflections from my side:
Why does Russia want any kind of relationship with the IMF?
To my knowledge, the US has a de facto veto right in the IMF, so there is little chance that Russia would be able to have any influence over its policies.
OTOH, Russia has a foreign trade surplus, so it definitely shouldn't need any kind of credit line or financial assistance from the Fund.
Also, alternatives such as the BRICS Development Bank have been discussed that would directly go against the current IMF/WB system.
So, what is going on here?
IMO, the current situation poses a dilemma to "the multipolar world", "the global south", or whatever definition do you want to have of the peoples & countries currently not benefiting from the current US$ global financial system.
1) I guess everyone can agree that the US$ reserve currency is an exorbitant privilege for the US, that allows it to basically print unlimited amounts of fiat money and unload it to the rest of the world in exchange for not only real goods & raw materials but also shares of strategic businesses or direct "aid" to "buy loyalties" of foreign countries. This is the major mechanism for the US "Imperial Wealth Pump" that draws from the rest of the world into the US while also helping funds its influence abroad.
2) While this money printer / wealth pump is in effect, it will be very difficult for any challenger o alliance to weaken the US because the US can finance its internal consumption, military, and non-military foreign interference basically for free.
3) Also, the way to dismantle the US Empire in the most direct and comprehensive way would be to "kill" the US$-based global financial system. How? This is a question for a longer debate.
4) BUT - and this is the crux of the whole issue here - it is also recognized by the "Multipolar World" elites that collapsing the US$-based global financial system would also probably bring a severe worldwide Depression that would take several years to run its course until the Western economies are brought down to their "real" size and commercial flows between regions realign. That would bring severe internal repercussions for them (RotW elites) and also an international risk of being seen as the guilty parties of said financial collapse.
5) It looks like these "Multipolar World" elites do want to have their cake & eat it: to try to both slowly dismantle the US$ hegemony while also avoiding any serious international economic earthquakes. This is the dilemma I mentioned above, because following this path neither avoids the possibility of a global economic-financial collapse (bc History shows that these events do happen cyclically anyway), nor is going to decisively weaken the USA.gov capacity.
6) IMO it would be better to "rip the band-aid" and actively collapse the US$ because, while the economic pain would be more severe in the short term, the Depression would run its course faster and the World that would (hopefully) come out of it after 2-3 years would be more peaceful and balanced. Under the current trajectory I fear we are going to see several decades of US Empire agony with a liberal amount of wars and large scale physical and economic destruction across the whole world (but firstly and especially in Euroland).
Good perspective, Andrew.
Just asking: to promote some of points, have you tried to reach out to The Duran and be a guest there on a panel discussion? That is a good starting point potentially.
Thanks Peti, and regarding The Duran, I used to publish on their site years ago but lost touch with the two Alexes. We also have a one-year-old in our family now so it's not possible to do phone or video interviews since the baby could disrupt them. But I do plan to try to get back into that circuit in a few years when it's more convenient for me.
Congrats on your young one!! Family always comes first. I’m a dad of twins - fully familiar with time constraint.
Thank you very much!
>The situation is altogether different with the AMC, many of whose members like Russia so much because they truly thought that Putin would “crash the Western economy” as a form of “historical justice”.<
It would be helpful if you gave some examples because I haven't seen this view expressed outside of some fringe publications with relatively small audiences.
Seems to me the West has been doing a stellar job of crashing their own economies without any help from Russia, Nordstream II being a prime example. What exactly are the alleged actions claimed by AMC that Russia is taking to bring about this crash? By-passing the Swift system? Adding new BRICS members? Those seem more like reactions than initiatives. Can you provide some specific examples since "many of whose members" seems to imply a widespread belief, which as I said, I haven't seen much evidence for.
Alt-Media will either ignore this or demonstrate its capacity for cognitive dissonance.
Anyway, the IMF (not Russia, the IMF) cancelled the mission under US pressure, so the point is moot.
As usual, a sober and balanced analysis. Thank you!
Some reflections from my side:
Why does Russia want any kind of relationship with the IMF?
To my knowledge, the US has a de facto veto right in the IMF, so there is little chance that Russia would be able to have any influence over its policies.
OTOH, Russia has a foreign trade surplus, so it definitely shouldn't need any kind of credit line or financial assistance from the Fund.
Also, alternatives such as the BRICS Development Bank have been discussed that would directly go against the current IMF/WB system.
So, what is going on here?
IMO, the current situation poses a dilemma to "the multipolar world", "the global south", or whatever definition do you want to have of the peoples & countries currently not benefiting from the current US$ global financial system.
1) I guess everyone can agree that the US$ reserve currency is an exorbitant privilege for the US, that allows it to basically print unlimited amounts of fiat money and unload it to the rest of the world in exchange for not only real goods & raw materials but also shares of strategic businesses or direct "aid" to "buy loyalties" of foreign countries. This is the major mechanism for the US "Imperial Wealth Pump" that draws from the rest of the world into the US while also helping funds its influence abroad.
2) While this money printer / wealth pump is in effect, it will be very difficult for any challenger o alliance to weaken the US because the US can finance its internal consumption, military, and non-military foreign interference basically for free.
3) Also, the way to dismantle the US Empire in the most direct and comprehensive way would be to "kill" the US$-based global financial system. How? This is a question for a longer debate.
4) BUT - and this is the crux of the whole issue here - it is also recognized by the "Multipolar World" elites that collapsing the US$-based global financial system would also probably bring a severe worldwide Depression that would take several years to run its course until the Western economies are brought down to their "real" size and commercial flows between regions realign. That would bring severe internal repercussions for them (RotW elites) and also an international risk of being seen as the guilty parties of said financial collapse.
5) It looks like these "Multipolar World" elites do want to have their cake & eat it: to try to both slowly dismantle the US$ hegemony while also avoiding any serious international economic earthquakes. This is the dilemma I mentioned above, because following this path neither avoids the possibility of a global economic-financial collapse (bc History shows that these events do happen cyclically anyway), nor is going to decisively weaken the USA.gov capacity.
6) IMO it would be better to "rip the band-aid" and actively collapse the US$ because, while the economic pain would be more severe in the short term, the Depression would run its course faster and the World that would (hopefully) come out of it after 2-3 years would be more peaceful and balanced. Under the current trajectory I fear we are going to see several decades of US Empire agony with a liberal amount of wars and large scale physical and economic destruction across the whole world (but firstly and especially in Euroland).