The US is on the backfoot in the South Caucasus, but it still has enough influence in Armenian and Georgian society via the ultra-nationalist diaspora and the “Georgian Legion” to throw those two into chaos if its plans fail.
I've said it before and I'll say it again--the Caucasus has been a snake pit for empires for thousands of years, and none of them have EVER succeeded in shaping that entire region to their desires.
Not the Soviets, the Russians, the Ottomans, the Persians, the Arab Caliphate, the Mongols, the Romans, not even Alexander the Great. Stick the imperial hand into that snake pit and it's going to get bit.
From where I sit, I see absolutely no vital American interest being served by stirring up trouble for Russia in the Caucasus, unless riling up expats is considered worth it, and such stirring does absolutely no good for the people who actually live there.
I've said it before and I'll say it again--the Caucasus has been a snake pit for empires for thousands of years, and none of them have EVER succeeded in shaping that entire region to their desires.
Not the Soviets, the Russians, the Ottomans, the Persians, the Arab Caliphate, the Mongols, the Romans, not even Alexander the Great. Stick the imperial hand into that snake pit and it's going to get bit.
From where I sit, I see absolutely no vital American interest being served by stirring up trouble for Russia in the Caucasus, unless riling up expats is considered worth it, and such stirring does absolutely no good for the people who actually live there.
Has anyone spotted Victoria Nuland, perhaps in disguise, in Georgia?
Does "kinetic" mean violent?