To be absolutely clear so that the insight shared in the present analysis isn’t misunderstood, no value judgement is being implied about China’s Machiavellian grand strategy.
A cynical analysis betraying ongoing paranoia about China. China clearly HAS to play a balancing act, just like India is being required to - standing by Russia while also participating in the anti-China Quad.
A key danger for China if it were to provide 'meaningful support' to the Russian SMO, is that its own military resources would be diminished, when they are clearly needed in the Pacific, especially Taiwan where US provocations keep on rising, with 3 US aircraft carrier fleets plus nukes being placed in Japan and Australia.
Also it is not accurate that China is not providing meaningful support. Russia is reasonably assured that its Western flank (where there is a latent Russia-China dispute over Vladivostok) is protected....by China!
And some historical context is needed here. In 1950, when Mao was extremely concerned about the US using the Korean War to invade China (a clear objective of General MacArthur leading to his firing by Truman) and repeatedly approached his 'big brother' Joseph Stalin for help.
Very little came, as the USSR provided only limited technical advisors and some pilots to North Korea, which were rapidly withdrawn once the US-led UN force invaded South Korea with the Inchon landing. Nuclear bombs were seriously considered by Eisenhower before the plan being dropped due to their comparative ineffectiveness in the mountainous Korean terrain.
The war was mostly fought by huge numbers of Chinese while the USAF flattened North Korea, turning it into a moonscape and killing nearly a fifth of the population. These are powerful scars.... and China is doing pretty good at standing by Russia at the moment given that history.
Of course it depends on how you define the word "allies" but I thought China and Russia made it pretty clear that they would have each other's back in the joint statement they released a few weeks before the SMO in Ukraine began: http://www.en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770
"China doesn't have Russia's back in ANY [emphasis added] tangible sense, just rhetorically."
That seems a little overstated Andrew. China may not be supplying Russia with drones like Iran, but it definitely has Russia's back economically. It is thumbing its nose at US-led sanctions against Russian energy exports and providing Russia with needed income in the face of EU boycotts and the US/UK sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines.
Is China cynically attempting to prolong the Ukrainian War at the expense of Russia to divert US attention away from Taiwan? No doubt a prolonged conflict in Ukraine will have that effect. But is that actually China's calculation?
After all, China's reluctance to be dragged into the Ukraine conflict is entirely consistent with its long-standing reluctance to be dragged into conflicts anywhere. China may also consider it unnecessary to intervene at this point in time, given Russia's overwhelming military advantage over NATO.
Above all China isn't really interested in playing these power games. They never do anything provocative or aggressive. I think they genuinely mean it when they say they want "mutual cooperation" and "harmony". You see those phrases all over all their press releases.
Considering China's historical record on respecting national boundaries, and the potential downside of Russia taking lands from Ukraine, China has been more warm than you might think. Also, since Russia's economy depends a lot on China not being at war, perhaps this is part of a mutual strategy.
A cynical analysis betraying ongoing paranoia about China. China clearly HAS to play a balancing act, just like India is being required to - standing by Russia while also participating in the anti-China Quad.
A key danger for China if it were to provide 'meaningful support' to the Russian SMO, is that its own military resources would be diminished, when they are clearly needed in the Pacific, especially Taiwan where US provocations keep on rising, with 3 US aircraft carrier fleets plus nukes being placed in Japan and Australia.
Also it is not accurate that China is not providing meaningful support. Russia is reasonably assured that its Western flank (where there is a latent Russia-China dispute over Vladivostok) is protected....by China!
And some historical context is needed here. In 1950, when Mao was extremely concerned about the US using the Korean War to invade China (a clear objective of General MacArthur leading to his firing by Truman) and repeatedly approached his 'big brother' Joseph Stalin for help.
Very little came, as the USSR provided only limited technical advisors and some pilots to North Korea, which were rapidly withdrawn once the US-led UN force invaded South Korea with the Inchon landing. Nuclear bombs were seriously considered by Eisenhower before the plan being dropped due to their comparative ineffectiveness in the mountainous Korean terrain.
The war was mostly fought by huge numbers of Chinese while the USAF flattened North Korea, turning it into a moonscape and killing nearly a fifth of the population. These are powerful scars.... and China is doing pretty good at standing by Russia at the moment given that history.
Of course it depends on how you define the word "allies" but I thought China and Russia made it pretty clear that they would have each other's back in the joint statement they released a few weeks before the SMO in Ukraine began: http://www.en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770
I comprehensively debunked that notion yesterday:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/korybko-to-c-raja-mohan-there-is
China doesn't have Russia's back in any tangible sense, just rhetorically.
"China doesn't have Russia's back in ANY [emphasis added] tangible sense, just rhetorically."
That seems a little overstated Andrew. China may not be supplying Russia with drones like Iran, but it definitely has Russia's back economically. It is thumbing its nose at US-led sanctions against Russian energy exports and providing Russia with needed income in the face of EU boycotts and the US/UK sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines.
Is China cynically attempting to prolong the Ukrainian War at the expense of Russia to divert US attention away from Taiwan? No doubt a prolonged conflict in Ukraine will have that effect. But is that actually China's calculation?
After all, China's reluctance to be dragged into the Ukraine conflict is entirely consistent with its long-standing reluctance to be dragged into conflicts anywhere. China may also consider it unnecessary to intervene at this point in time, given Russia's overwhelming military advantage over NATO.
Yes I saw that but I don't agree with your opinion. The fact that China is proceeding carefully isn't surprising.
Above all China isn't really interested in playing these power games. They never do anything provocative or aggressive. I think they genuinely mean it when they say they want "mutual cooperation" and "harmony". You see those phrases all over all their press releases.
Considering China's historical record on respecting national boundaries, and the potential downside of Russia taking lands from Ukraine, China has been more warm than you might think. Also, since Russia's economy depends a lot on China not being at war, perhaps this is part of a mutual strategy.