The best-case scenario would be for Pakistan to defy the US’ secondary sanctions threats against all those that do business with Iran, patch up its problems with the Taliban, and thus rely on two trade routes to Russia instead of just one, but that might be asking too much of its de facto military junta.
I guess this is only a trial balloon. Trump is currently in no position to defy AIPAC openly. Therefore I would bet the " Indo-Pacific hawks" faction in the USA will shoot down this balloon. However, if this freight train service does start and may even run for a while, then some real thaw with Iran is coming. By the way, according to wikipedia, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan have 3 different rail gauges.
The problem is that the Pakistani Military-ISI class and the two ruling families hold vast highly valuable property in US and Europe - The Trump administration can quickly declare these the proceeds of money laundering and initiate criminal proceedings against key individuals. They will immediately cow down to US pressure just like Amboy Aquino in the Philippines who has converted his country into a US military base just because his family holds somewhere around $20 billion in the US and Hawai.
Step by sometimes faltering & risky step, interconnectivity is proceeding. Taking risks & playing the long game usually produces desired results eventually. Russia knows this strategy well. In addition, the ability of USA to wield the power it once had might be waning more than Mr. Trump is willing to admit. That's the waiting-game risk much of the world's majority watches.
I guess this is only a trial balloon. Trump is currently in no position to defy AIPAC openly. Therefore I would bet the " Indo-Pacific hawks" faction in the USA will shoot down this balloon. However, if this freight train service does start and may even run for a while, then some real thaw with Iran is coming. By the way, according to wikipedia, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan have 3 different rail gauges.
The problem is that the Pakistani Military-ISI class and the two ruling families hold vast highly valuable property in US and Europe - The Trump administration can quickly declare these the proceeds of money laundering and initiate criminal proceedings against key individuals. They will immediately cow down to US pressure just like Amboy Aquino in the Philippines who has converted his country into a US military base just because his family holds somewhere around $20 billion in the US and Hawai.
Step by sometimes faltering & risky step, interconnectivity is proceeding. Taking risks & playing the long game usually produces desired results eventually. Russia knows this strategy well. In addition, the ability of USA to wield the power it once had might be waning more than Mr. Trump is willing to admit. That's the waiting-game risk much of the world's majority watches.