The best-case scenario would be for Pakistan to defy the US’ secondary sanctions threats against all those that do business with Iran, patch up its problems with the Taliban, and thus rely on two trade routes to Russia instead of just one, but that might be asking too much of its de facto military junta.
I guess this is only a trial balloon. Trump is currently in no position to defy AIPAC openly. Therefore I would bet the " Indo-Pacific hawks" faction in the USA will shoot down this balloon. However, if this freight train service does start and may even run for a while, then some real thaw with Iran is coming. By the way, according to wikipedia, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan have 3 different rail gauges.
Just another long-term loss for Europe. Germany – the strongest economy of Europe – is already living with zero economic growth as a result of the Ukraine war, dragging down other economies. After 1991 there was a major, open debate inside Russia about future orientation of that country. The Western Orientation won easily. Considering that Peter the Great already forced Russia toward the West this was not really a surprise. (He was strongly influenced by their liquors and daughters…) By blowing up the Baltic pipelines and forcing Russian exports/imports and military to turn toward Asia geopolitical balance was dramatically shifted toward China and allies. People with long memories can recall the insane manipulations of the Nixon-Kissinger duo that started this process. Now, as America is gradually turning against China, it is easy to guess that Russia will not embrace Western interests. Not after Ukraine!
The problem is that the Pakistani Military-ISI class and the two ruling families hold vast highly valuable property in US and Europe - The Trump administration can quickly declare these the proceeds of money laundering and initiate criminal proceedings against key individuals. They will immediately cow down to US pressure just like Amboy Aquino in the Philippines who has converted his country into a US military base just because his family holds somewhere around $20 billion in the US and Hawai.
Step by sometimes faltering & risky step, interconnectivity is proceeding. Taking risks & playing the long game usually produces desired results eventually. Russia knows this strategy well. In addition, the ability of USA to wield the power it once had might be waning more than Mr. Trump is willing to admit. That's the waiting-game risk much of the world's majority watches.
I guess this is only a trial balloon. Trump is currently in no position to defy AIPAC openly. Therefore I would bet the " Indo-Pacific hawks" faction in the USA will shoot down this balloon. However, if this freight train service does start and may even run for a while, then some real thaw with Iran is coming. By the way, according to wikipedia, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan have 3 different rail gauges.
Just another long-term loss for Europe. Germany – the strongest economy of Europe – is already living with zero economic growth as a result of the Ukraine war, dragging down other economies. After 1991 there was a major, open debate inside Russia about future orientation of that country. The Western Orientation won easily. Considering that Peter the Great already forced Russia toward the West this was not really a surprise. (He was strongly influenced by their liquors and daughters…) By blowing up the Baltic pipelines and forcing Russian exports/imports and military to turn toward Asia geopolitical balance was dramatically shifted toward China and allies. People with long memories can recall the insane manipulations of the Nixon-Kissinger duo that started this process. Now, as America is gradually turning against China, it is easy to guess that Russia will not embrace Western interests. Not after Ukraine!
The problem is that the Pakistani Military-ISI class and the two ruling families hold vast highly valuable property in US and Europe - The Trump administration can quickly declare these the proceeds of money laundering and initiate criminal proceedings against key individuals. They will immediately cow down to US pressure just like Amboy Aquino in the Philippines who has converted his country into a US military base just because his family holds somewhere around $20 billion in the US and Hawai.
Step by sometimes faltering & risky step, interconnectivity is proceeding. Taking risks & playing the long game usually produces desired results eventually. Russia knows this strategy well. In addition, the ability of USA to wield the power it once had might be waning more than Mr. Trump is willing to admit. That's the waiting-game risk much of the world's majority watches.