8 Comments

Andrew, "the Resistance" can and will destroy the satanic entity called Israel. The "iron dome" has been exposed for what it is! I do not think the rest of the Islamic Middle East will be dragged in, and neither will be the toothless, failed American state, already up to its bottom lip and shit.

Expand full comment

"Hawks on both sides"? You genuinely believe this belligerence is mutual and both parties are equally responsible?

The only hawks that exist are in the Israeli regime. They are unhinged and bloodthirsty and have been itching for war with Iran for decades.

Expand full comment

"An alternative explanation for this scenario could be that Israel couldn’t secure US support for its own retaliation"

Israel has said pretty persuasively that they don't need US support. They want it, obviously, but it's no longer a precondition for action. Israel is unlike any other US ally. Zelensky would never say this for instance.

Israel did not secure US support for their recent actions in Lebanon. Indeed, Biden came out with some pretty strong words against it, saying without qualification that he strongly opposes the action and wants a ceasefire. It seems that every day the deep state gets more powerful: bureaucrats like Blinken and McGurk make the actual decisions, the opinion of the President seems increasingly irrelevant.

Expand full comment

Andrew, I think it would be useful for you to listen to Doug MacGregor on Danny Davis and Greg Stoker on Danny Haiphong. There is much more one can say about what is going on than just two states trying to save face.

Expand full comment

FYI- Jun 27, 2013 Gen. Wesley Clark, Democracy Now! interview, 2007

Gen. Wesley Clark, Democracy Now! interview, 2007. Objective: take out 7 countries in 5 years: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Iran.

https://youtu.be/bSL3JqorkdU

Expand full comment
RemovedOct 2
Comment removed
Expand full comment
author

Because Iran has much more credible deterrent capabilities than Hezbollah or the Houthis with regard to MAD.

Hezbollah is known to have a lot of missiles, but they conspicuously didn't participate in last night's strikes.

That's either because they're saving them for a later time, a lot of them were destroyed, or their command and control is in such disarray that they can't get them launched.

As for the Houthis, they're a comparatively minor irritant to Israel and can't realistically be compared to Hezbollah or especially Iran in any serious conversation about MAD.

Expand full comment
RemovedOct 2
Comment removed
Expand full comment
author

Yes, really, a minor irritant in terms of MAD, which is what my analysis focused on. I mistakenly thought you wanted my insight on Hezbollah and the Houthis' roles in this concept, not that you wanted to make some other point.

You're factually wrong if you think that the Houthis have anywhere near the missile capabilities that Hezbollah and especially Iran do For curiosity's sake, I'd be interested in reviewing whatever sources you read that convinced you of that.

Or maybe you're just sharing talking points and that's what this exchange is about? If that's the case, then carry on, but please clarify so I don't waste my time since I'm not interested in arguing, only in explaining my views on the subject of MAD.

Expand full comment
RemovedOct 2
Comment removed
Expand full comment

His analysis is based on the observation that only Iran seems to have the firepower to seriously threaten Israel, and I would agree. The houthis can definitely cause some damage, but not in a way that would threaten Israel's security.

Expand full comment