Instead of abandoning his efforts to freeze the Ukrainian Conflict by doubling down on military aid in the hopes that Zelensky’s forces will then recapture these deposits from Russia, Trump might instead try to cut a deal with Putin for Russia to sell some of these extracted resources to the US.
Hypothetically Putin could give away whatever natural resources Donbass is sitting on to Trump and Trump could sell this politically in the US as some kind of good deal thus justifying pumping the brakes on the onslaught against Russia and shifting to China. By all accounts Donbass actually is fairly wealthy in natural resources, rich enough that Oligarchs have been killing and scheming against eachother over them since the USSR was murdered. Even if the actual value is exaggerated its more about the optics and Trump having something he can spin as a win. Of course the Kremlin agreeing to something like that would be common treachery and they wouldn't have any scruples about it if it got them a ceasefire with conditions they perceive as tolerable and domestically sellable. In any case the chances of something like this happening are pretty low vut that might the reasoning involved.
I lived and worked much of my adult life in Ukraine. Enough to say that any mineral deposits have long been known and there wasn't much interest in exploiting them.i know, because I tried to drum up interest.
Historically, Ukraine has been one of the best explored regions for mineral resources in the world - simply because you didn't have to send exploration teams to some unworldly and harsh places like behind the polar circle and also had lots of qualified labor nearby. At a quick glance, most of the mineral resources are in the Donbass and in the Dnepropetrovsk region.
Delusional in the extreme. If the war has taught the west and US in particular anything it should be that Russia requires NOTHING from US or the west. The 19,000 sanctions have not hampered the Russian economy or war effort one iota. As to technologies to utilise the mineral wealth in the captured territories, China, Russia's biggest ally has all the technology necessary for Russia to profit. Nobody has ever made a treaty with US that America has honoured. The US is a dishonest untrustworthy nation. Stop deluding yourself US influence and leverage is ZERO over Ukraine
The Russian economy impressively survived that unprecedented sanctions onslaught, but mostly because the country is already self-sufficient in resources and therefore doesn't have to trade with the outside world except for foreign currency to buy certain things abroad.
It's been almost 1,100 days since the SMO began and Russia hasn't captured an entire former Ukrainian region yet, hasn't even targeted bridges across the Dnieper, and continually refuses to truly cripple Ukraine's energy production capabilities.
China also isn't Russia's "ally", in fact, it complies with some of the Western sanctions as proven beyond any doubt here:
China is also demanding basement-bargain prices for Power of Siberia II, ergo why no deal has yet to be clinched even in spite of Putin's visit to Beijing last May.
You sound like you're either a leftist and/or activist, oftentimes but not always one and the same, which it's usually these folks in my experience who react angrily whenever they read pragmatic proposals reflecting how the world actually works, not as they wish it worked.
All this talk about how Russia doesn't "need" the US is factually debunked by Russia continually asking the US to lift the sanctions and even Peskov, Putin's spokesman, recently applauding Trump's proposal to resume strategic arms control talks.
If your angry rant truly reflected reality, then he'd never have said that, nor would China comply with some Western sanctions. Russia also arms India and Vietnam to the teeth knowing fully well that these weapons could be used against China.
That's not to say that Russia and China aren't close strategic partners, but just that they surely aren't allies. Add to it Russia approving India's export of jointly produced BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines, the US' mutual defense ally.
"It's been almost 1,100 days since the SMO began and Russia hasn't captured an entire former Ukrainian region yet, hasn't even targeted bridges across the Dnieper, and continually refuses to truly cripple Ukraine's energy production capabilities." So? Apparently they are turning UKR, albeit slowly, into a failed-state without military capability, standing-down and weakening OTAN, and crippling the EU. Additionally, RU appears stronger militarily and politically more stable, both domestically and globally, than they did 1100 days ago.
It is a war of attrition in which Russia was first and foremost trying to minimize its own casualties, as well as Ukriainian civilian casualties. Ukraine is being attrited slowly and then it will go on faster and faster to a final collapse. This is a realistic perspective.
The sanctions are indeed hampering Russia's trade with other nations. The question, for medium term, is how long Russia can function as an autarchy or pseudo-autarchy? Probably longer than others depending on trade with Russia. So what is US going to do? Huff and puff? And then huff and puff some more?
I don't know why Russians want those lithium ores. However, if they can sell it to the West at a reasonable price, I think they are happy to sell. So far it seems Russian consumers have shown little interest in EVs. The issue is more of whether the US wants to loot the resources from Ukraine by keeping Ukraine a vassal, or the US wants to buy it from somebody. Given the price already paid by the US, buying it outright is the better approach. The US launched the Ukraine war for geopolitical reasons. Economic reasons were merely used to lure the capitalists to go along with the neocons' plans.
I think the relevant question is whether Mr. Korybko is really an exceptionally intelligent and insightful geopolitical analyst, or whether the rest of the media just doesn't get it. It's always about the money. It is always foolish to let the other side in the negotiation know what it is you really want. There will be no settlement without settlement of the mineral rights, port access, oil and gas relationships, and sanctions issues. There is plenty of room in those for good deals on both sides. Ukraine is simply not one of the "sides." Nobody ever cared about Ukraine, including the people who have run it since the fall of the USSR - every last one of them. Politics are mercenary and politicians are mercenaries.
Kudos, Mr. Korybko. You are definitely a member of the smart dudes club. It's a pity more people haven't yet realized that. ☮
It's good to speculate and to submit speculation to critique to refine the model. I just want to point out that ‘”cost-conscious” Trump administration’ goes against past behavior, including up to yesterday. Spending under Trump Admin 1 was insane, and it will be insane again. What Trump has always objected to was spending on anything that he didn’t like, didn’t benefit him indirectly, or most crudely that his crime family was not dipping a beak into.
A position like that needs to be checked against historical evidence, otherwise it was a fun bit of speculation for which I lack enough evidence, but then again lack of evidence has never stopped Trump.
I don't know if these mineralizations are really that important. First, there was no modern exploration of these (same goes for Ukrainian lithium, etc.), so all numbers flying around are estimated guesses at best. Second, there are heaps of Rare Earths in Scandinavia, Northern America and elsewhere. That stuff isn't rare at all.
While Ukraine/Donbass certainly has a very interesting geology, practically all the data we have stems from Soviet surveys and back in those days, lithium and rare earths were no important commodities, so I would be genuinely interested in seeing the source of all this optimism.
The rare thing about those rare earths is to find someone how processes the ore concentrate into pure metals. As of today, the Chinese supply over 90% of that, so American help wouldn't be needed to make use of mentioned mineralizations. The US has a rare earth mine in Mountain Pass, California, so they also have the technology but struggle with the economics of the mine.
In the last few years, several large REE mineralizations have been identified in Finland, Sweden and Norway. There are heaps of minerals but a lack of processing capacity within the West.
(mineralization = accumulation of minerals of interest where the economic parameters are either unknown or don't allow exploitation; deposit = an economically exploitable mineralization)
The idea that Ukraine is some treasure trove of minerals, oil,whatever is a lazy trope. The idea is to keep Trump interested in the war.
The War On Syria was similarly sold to Trump, and the actual amount of oil was a rounding error.
Trump should be more interested in not bringing a Russian first strike down on himself.
Hypothetically Putin could give away whatever natural resources Donbass is sitting on to Trump and Trump could sell this politically in the US as some kind of good deal thus justifying pumping the brakes on the onslaught against Russia and shifting to China. By all accounts Donbass actually is fairly wealthy in natural resources, rich enough that Oligarchs have been killing and scheming against eachother over them since the USSR was murdered. Even if the actual value is exaggerated its more about the optics and Trump having something he can spin as a win. Of course the Kremlin agreeing to something like that would be common treachery and they wouldn't have any scruples about it if it got them a ceasefire with conditions they perceive as tolerable and domestically sellable. In any case the chances of something like this happening are pretty low vut that might the reasoning involved.
I lived and worked much of my adult life in Ukraine. Enough to say that any mineral deposits have long been known and there wasn't much interest in exploiting them.i know, because I tried to drum up interest.
Historically, Ukraine has been one of the best explored regions for mineral resources in the world - simply because you didn't have to send exploration teams to some unworldly and harsh places like behind the polar circle and also had lots of qualified labor nearby. At a quick glance, most of the mineral resources are in the Donbass and in the Dnepropetrovsk region.
Delusional in the extreme. If the war has taught the west and US in particular anything it should be that Russia requires NOTHING from US or the west. The 19,000 sanctions have not hampered the Russian economy or war effort one iota. As to technologies to utilise the mineral wealth in the captured territories, China, Russia's biggest ally has all the technology necessary for Russia to profit. Nobody has ever made a treaty with US that America has honoured. The US is a dishonest untrustworthy nation. Stop deluding yourself US influence and leverage is ZERO over Ukraine
The Russian economy impressively survived that unprecedented sanctions onslaught, but mostly because the country is already self-sufficient in resources and therefore doesn't have to trade with the outside world except for foreign currency to buy certain things abroad.
It's been almost 1,100 days since the SMO began and Russia hasn't captured an entire former Ukrainian region yet, hasn't even targeted bridges across the Dnieper, and continually refuses to truly cripple Ukraine's energy production capabilities.
China also isn't Russia's "ally", in fact, it complies with some of the Western sanctions as proven beyond any doubt here:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/alt-media-is-in-shock-after-the-brics
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-and-chinas-us-provoked-payment
https://korybko.substack.com/p/chinas-voluntary-compliance-with
China is also demanding basement-bargain prices for Power of Siberia II, ergo why no deal has yet to be clinched even in spite of Putin's visit to Beijing last May.
You sound like you're either a leftist and/or activist, oftentimes but not always one and the same, which it's usually these folks in my experience who react angrily whenever they read pragmatic proposals reflecting how the world actually works, not as they wish it worked.
All this talk about how Russia doesn't "need" the US is factually debunked by Russia continually asking the US to lift the sanctions and even Peskov, Putin's spokesman, recently applauding Trump's proposal to resume strategic arms control talks.
If your angry rant truly reflected reality, then he'd never have said that, nor would China comply with some Western sanctions. Russia also arms India and Vietnam to the teeth knowing fully well that these weapons could be used against China.
That's not to say that Russia and China aren't close strategic partners, but just that they surely aren't allies. Add to it Russia approving India's export of jointly produced BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines, the US' mutual defense ally.
"It's been almost 1,100 days since the SMO began and Russia hasn't captured an entire former Ukrainian region yet, hasn't even targeted bridges across the Dnieper, and continually refuses to truly cripple Ukraine's energy production capabilities." So? Apparently they are turning UKR, albeit slowly, into a failed-state without military capability, standing-down and weakening OTAN, and crippling the EU. Additionally, RU appears stronger militarily and politically more stable, both domestically and globally, than they did 1100 days ago.
It is a war of attrition in which Russia was first and foremost trying to minimize its own casualties, as well as Ukriainian civilian casualties. Ukraine is being attrited slowly and then it will go on faster and faster to a final collapse. This is a realistic perspective.
The sanctions are indeed hampering Russia's trade with other nations. The question, for medium term, is how long Russia can function as an autarchy or pseudo-autarchy? Probably longer than others depending on trade with Russia. So what is US going to do? Huff and puff? And then huff and puff some more?
I don't know why Russians want those lithium ores. However, if they can sell it to the West at a reasonable price, I think they are happy to sell. So far it seems Russian consumers have shown little interest in EVs. The issue is more of whether the US wants to loot the resources from Ukraine by keeping Ukraine a vassal, or the US wants to buy it from somebody. Given the price already paid by the US, buying it outright is the better approach. The US launched the Ukraine war for geopolitical reasons. Economic reasons were merely used to lure the capitalists to go along with the neocons' plans.
I think the relevant question is whether Mr. Korybko is really an exceptionally intelligent and insightful geopolitical analyst, or whether the rest of the media just doesn't get it. It's always about the money. It is always foolish to let the other side in the negotiation know what it is you really want. There will be no settlement without settlement of the mineral rights, port access, oil and gas relationships, and sanctions issues. There is plenty of room in those for good deals on both sides. Ukraine is simply not one of the "sides." Nobody ever cared about Ukraine, including the people who have run it since the fall of the USSR - every last one of them. Politics are mercenary and politicians are mercenaries.
Kudos, Mr. Korybko. You are definitely a member of the smart dudes club. It's a pity more people haven't yet realized that. ☮
It's good to speculate and to submit speculation to critique to refine the model. I just want to point out that ‘”cost-conscious” Trump administration’ goes against past behavior, including up to yesterday. Spending under Trump Admin 1 was insane, and it will be insane again. What Trump has always objected to was spending on anything that he didn’t like, didn’t benefit him indirectly, or most crudely that his crime family was not dipping a beak into.
A position like that needs to be checked against historical evidence, otherwise it was a fun bit of speculation for which I lack enough evidence, but then again lack of evidence has never stopped Trump.
a lot of good articles from Andrew these two weeks. this is another 👏
https://substack.com/@calluramichael491850/note/c-91101652?r=1ii73h&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Why would Trump be interested in resources that Putin isn't interested in conquering.
I don't know if these mineralizations are really that important. First, there was no modern exploration of these (same goes for Ukrainian lithium, etc.), so all numbers flying around are estimated guesses at best. Second, there are heaps of Rare Earths in Scandinavia, Northern America and elsewhere. That stuff isn't rare at all.
While Ukraine/Donbass certainly has a very interesting geology, practically all the data we have stems from Soviet surveys and back in those days, lithium and rare earths were no important commodities, so I would be genuinely interested in seeing the source of all this optimism.
The rare thing about those rare earths is to find someone how processes the ore concentrate into pure metals. As of today, the Chinese supply over 90% of that, so American help wouldn't be needed to make use of mentioned mineralizations. The US has a rare earth mine in Mountain Pass, California, so they also have the technology but struggle with the economics of the mine.
In the last few years, several large REE mineralizations have been identified in Finland, Sweden and Norway. There are heaps of minerals but a lack of processing capacity within the West.
(mineralization = accumulation of minerals of interest where the economic parameters are either unknown or don't allow exploitation; deposit = an economically exploitable mineralization)
Putin will not agree to any deals.