Considering that Article 5 always left the option of armed force up to each individual member, which remains the case with each of the bilateral “security guarantees” that Ukraine reached with some of them over the past year, Meloni’s dramatic proposal doesn’t actually amount to anything new.
Meloni failed to read the room when she spoke or maybe she did. Either way the globalists loved what they heard from her which is their plan to stay in power. They believe that should Russia bkitzkreig Ukraine (which they can easily do) that Putin has such a thirst to re-unite the old Soviet Union that he won’t stop at the Ukrainian border which in turn would start WWIII and article 5 would enact US boots on the ground war. Europe has mis-calculated badly here. I’m not quite sure the US will heed article 5 anymore. If we did it would be in a leadership role. I don’t think you’d see US soldiers on the front lines taking bullets for Europe right now. Trump is using this cease fire as a multi pronged way to get Iran to lay down its nuclear ambitions with Russian leverage. Iran is dangerously close to needing some sort of action and fast. Ukraine will never be part of NATO. Any security guarantees would come from Europe and with Germany hating on the Slavic nations believing them “dirty” it’s up to Britain and France to lead here which isn’t much guarantee is it? The fact is the war needs to stop and Ukraine owns no cards.
Why do you think that: “They believe that should Russia blitzkrieg Ukraine (which they can easily do)”?
I kind of followed this war from day one on a day by day basis and my characterization was that the two armies were fairly well balanced because of the constant flow of hardware from the West. Putin’s Russia was living under the belief that their major nuclear force will exclude the possibility of a U.S./NATO sneak attack and accordingly, they were focusing on economic and cultural developments. They must have known about the major flow of arms into Ukraine pre February 24, 2022 as Ukraine has a very large number of Russians living there. Merkel and Trump are on record informing us that they were arming Ukraine before the war. The early push back and major losses of the Russian army of tanks at Kyiv was only possible because of Trump’s donations/sales of Javelins during his first period in 2018-2019. Link goes to Trump Administration’s own release on this issue.
In addition Merkel’s verbal statement clearly stated that Europeans sent hardware also before 2022.
Most U.S. historians and political scientists had a clear understanding in early 2022 that the U.S./NATO march and violations of the Minsk Agreements were the initiative acts of the war. Therefore they were drastically censored and harassed to stay quiet, just like myself. In other words U.S./NATO followed a strategy – knowingly – for this conflict where there were two possible outcomes: NATO/Ukraine defeat on the battlefield or a nuclear war. Either way Ukraine’s destruction was guaranteed from day one, at the very least. And this is where the real problem can be found: The Western leadership acted in a united manner as a psychopathic, self-destructive group of homicidal maniacs. There was never any rational reason to believe that modern, post-Soviet Russia has a design to overrun Europe. In fact all evidence pointed in the opposing direction. This was hysteria from day one!
What I find blood-curdling in this whole horror-story is:
1, Meloni jumps into this whole horror story and she is pushing things the wrong way.
2, In the background the Western leadership managed to build a web of alliances that can easily trigger a chain reaction of conflicts taking us to WWIII.
This whole thing smells like the pre-WWI chain of alliances that automatically led to a major conflict in 1914. However, I still do not believe that they will march into Ukraine. They are mostly shell-shocked watching the conflict turning around suddenly and act like headless chickens, jumping back and forth. I am anticipating Meloni’s own party to push her around on this one. The possibility of a nuclear conflict was on the minds of the general population in the last three years, although it was heavily censored.
The security guarantees that France and UK gave Poland in late 1930s Come to mind. After German attack on Poland (marking the start of WWII in the official books), France and especially UK did nothing. There was a small french incursion in wester Germany that fizzled in 2 weeks and the French retreated, and the Brits fiddled with their thumbs.
"The Phoney War (French: Drôle de guerre; German: Sitzkrieg; Polish: Dziwna wojna) was an eight-month period at the outset of World War II during which there were virtually no Allied military land operations on the Western Front. World War II began on 1 September 1939 with Nazi Germany's invasion of Poland. Two days later, the "Phoney" period began with declarations of war by the United Kingdom and France against Germany, but with little actual warfare occurring."
Only after the Germans moved west, to attack Denmark, Norway, etc., British started to move about.
Such will be with Ukraine. And since Russia will not attack actual NATO countries, just kill the unlucky soldiers sent to Ukraine, even the Washington Treaty will not apply.
There was zero French incursion into Germany post Sept 1939. In fact, French and English (together with the Danes, Norwegians and Swedes) were busy sending troops to Finnland, and then, after the Russo-Finnish Winter War 39/40 died down, about bombing Soviet oil terminals in the Caspian in March 1940. Some of these British troops stayed put, and it took British a lot of convincing the Finns between April 1940 and June 1941 to allow them to get back to UK.
Only the German attack on Denmark and Norwey did they (Anglo-French) reorient themselves against Germany. By then, it was too late.
"The quiet of the Phoney War was punctuated by a few isolated Allied actions. The French invasion of Germany's Saar district on 7 September was allegedly intended to assist Poland by diverting German troops from the Polish Front but the half-hearted Saar operation fizzled out within days and France withdrew."
I concede the point. However, based on the number of fatalities, the French made a tiny effort. They never moved beyond the formerly buffer zone of Saar, and even there stayed very much near home. So no victory parade in Saarbrücken or taking over the huge and militarily important Saar steel industry and something...
I still can't get over the French being within kilometers of the humongous German steel industry in the Saar - Völklingen and others - and doing zero about it. Wow! They fully deserved to be run over 9 months later.
Everyone was hoping that Germany will just go east (wasn't this the goal of the Fuhrer as declared in Mein Kampf?) and deal with the bolsheviks? Wasn't this the main reason he got placed into power in the first place, with finance from both inside and outside Germany? Poland was a worthwhile sacrifice for the destruction of Soviet Russia (and Russia in general, if you just ask British Ministry of Foreign Affairs).
Thus, destroying the industrial capacity of Germany to carry its war against the soviets wouldn't have helped the ultimate purpose of Mr. Hitler...
But Hitler just deviated from the plan. How could you do that Adolf!
A society that systematically refuses to recognize that its physical survival is
physical survival is immediately in question and which does not take any steps
to save itself cannot be described as mentally healthy.
Rhetoric aside, Meloni, like Macron and Starmer, is hoping that the United States will ride to the rescue, rather than let them hang out to dry.
Meloni failed to read the room when she spoke or maybe she did. Either way the globalists loved what they heard from her which is their plan to stay in power. They believe that should Russia bkitzkreig Ukraine (which they can easily do) that Putin has such a thirst to re-unite the old Soviet Union that he won’t stop at the Ukrainian border which in turn would start WWIII and article 5 would enact US boots on the ground war. Europe has mis-calculated badly here. I’m not quite sure the US will heed article 5 anymore. If we did it would be in a leadership role. I don’t think you’d see US soldiers on the front lines taking bullets for Europe right now. Trump is using this cease fire as a multi pronged way to get Iran to lay down its nuclear ambitions with Russian leverage. Iran is dangerously close to needing some sort of action and fast. Ukraine will never be part of NATO. Any security guarantees would come from Europe and with Germany hating on the Slavic nations believing them “dirty” it’s up to Britain and France to lead here which isn’t much guarantee is it? The fact is the war needs to stop and Ukraine owns no cards.
Why do you think that: “They believe that should Russia blitzkrieg Ukraine (which they can easily do)”?
I kind of followed this war from day one on a day by day basis and my characterization was that the two armies were fairly well balanced because of the constant flow of hardware from the West. Putin’s Russia was living under the belief that their major nuclear force will exclude the possibility of a U.S./NATO sneak attack and accordingly, they were focusing on economic and cultural developments. They must have known about the major flow of arms into Ukraine pre February 24, 2022 as Ukraine has a very large number of Russians living there. Merkel and Trump are on record informing us that they were arming Ukraine before the war. The early push back and major losses of the Russian army of tanks at Kyiv was only possible because of Trump’s donations/sales of Javelins during his first period in 2018-2019. Link goes to Trump Administration’s own release on this issue.
https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-political-military-affairs/releases/2025/01/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine
In addition Merkel’s verbal statement clearly stated that Europeans sent hardware also before 2022.
Most U.S. historians and political scientists had a clear understanding in early 2022 that the U.S./NATO march and violations of the Minsk Agreements were the initiative acts of the war. Therefore they were drastically censored and harassed to stay quiet, just like myself. In other words U.S./NATO followed a strategy – knowingly – for this conflict where there were two possible outcomes: NATO/Ukraine defeat on the battlefield or a nuclear war. Either way Ukraine’s destruction was guaranteed from day one, at the very least. And this is where the real problem can be found: The Western leadership acted in a united manner as a psychopathic, self-destructive group of homicidal maniacs. There was never any rational reason to believe that modern, post-Soviet Russia has a design to overrun Europe. In fact all evidence pointed in the opposing direction. This was hysteria from day one!
Excellent work Andrew, thanks.
What I find blood-curdling in this whole horror-story is:
1, Meloni jumps into this whole horror story and she is pushing things the wrong way.
2, In the background the Western leadership managed to build a web of alliances that can easily trigger a chain reaction of conflicts taking us to WWIII.
This whole thing smells like the pre-WWI chain of alliances that automatically led to a major conflict in 1914. However, I still do not believe that they will march into Ukraine. They are mostly shell-shocked watching the conflict turning around suddenly and act like headless chickens, jumping back and forth. I am anticipating Meloni’s own party to push her around on this one. The possibility of a nuclear conflict was on the minds of the general population in the last three years, although it was heavily censored.
OPS!
Those idiots silently signed the WWIII start! No one know in my Country... But we have a Neo-Fascits PM so it's ok...
Great! Time to delete EU and US with some nukes!
The security guarantees that France and UK gave Poland in late 1930s Come to mind. After German attack on Poland (marking the start of WWII in the official books), France and especially UK did nothing. There was a small french incursion in wester Germany that fizzled in 2 weeks and the French retreated, and the Brits fiddled with their thumbs.
"The Phoney War (French: Drôle de guerre; German: Sitzkrieg; Polish: Dziwna wojna) was an eight-month period at the outset of World War II during which there were virtually no Allied military land operations on the Western Front. World War II began on 1 September 1939 with Nazi Germany's invasion of Poland. Two days later, the "Phoney" period began with declarations of war by the United Kingdom and France against Germany, but with little actual warfare occurring."
Only after the Germans moved west, to attack Denmark, Norway, etc., British started to move about.
Such will be with Ukraine. And since Russia will not attack actual NATO countries, just kill the unlucky soldiers sent to Ukraine, even the Washington Treaty will not apply.
There was zero French incursion into Germany post Sept 1939. In fact, French and English (together with the Danes, Norwegians and Swedes) were busy sending troops to Finnland, and then, after the Russo-Finnish Winter War 39/40 died down, about bombing Soviet oil terminals in the Caspian in March 1940. Some of these British troops stayed put, and it took British a lot of convincing the Finns between April 1940 and June 1941 to allow them to get back to UK.
Only the German attack on Denmark and Norwey did they (Anglo-French) reorient themselves against Germany. By then, it was too late.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoney_War
"The quiet of the Phoney War was punctuated by a few isolated Allied actions. The French invasion of Germany's Saar district on 7 September was allegedly intended to assist Poland by diverting German troops from the Polish Front but the half-hearted Saar operation fizzled out within days and France withdrew."
I concede the point. However, based on the number of fatalities, the French made a tiny effort. They never moved beyond the formerly buffer zone of Saar, and even there stayed very much near home. So no victory parade in Saarbrücken or taking over the huge and militarily important Saar steel industry and something...
I think this was a very civilized debate, tip of the hat; facts were allowed to win the argument...
I still can't get over the French being within kilometers of the humongous German steel industry in the Saar - Völklingen and others - and doing zero about it. Wow! They fully deserved to be run over 9 months later.
Everyone was hoping that Germany will just go east (wasn't this the goal of the Fuhrer as declared in Mein Kampf?) and deal with the bolsheviks? Wasn't this the main reason he got placed into power in the first place, with finance from both inside and outside Germany? Poland was a worthwhile sacrifice for the destruction of Soviet Russia (and Russia in general, if you just ask British Ministry of Foreign Affairs).
Thus, destroying the industrial capacity of Germany to carry its war against the soviets wouldn't have helped the ultimate purpose of Mr. Hitler...
But Hitler just deviated from the plan. How could you do that Adolf!