It would be a mistake for Russia to ignore this large agglomeration of forces since some of them might soon be redeployed to the Donbass and/or Kursk fronts.
120,000 troops on the Belarus border would be pretty easy to see, yet no one is reported to actually be seeing them.
That would be 1/10th the total fighting force of Ukraine pre-war. That would be a stupid thing to do, unless he goal has been to start a big war and not simply fight Russia back to Russia.
So unless the goal has always been to start WWIII, which it well may have been from the West's side, since they are bankrupt and collapsing, then it does not make any sense at all.
No, this is just propaganda. The short example is notice he says the age was dropped from 28 to 25.....gaslighting...at the end of of 2022 Ukraine had already openly said any one 18 to 60 was being forced into service. Since then we know they have been grabing kids as young as 16.
Feral slowly realizing maybe all of his Substack subscriptions are money down the drain. The good news—Taibbi now has more than enough money to send his kids to Wesleyan…he’ll need another year of your money for Ivy League admission! 😉
Polish Volunteers. I believe Belarus does not have enough military capacities to deal with Poland and Ukraine from two directions. If Belarus asks for Russian help, it is about time. It is also about time for Russia to return troops "borrowed" from Kaliningrad Oblast back to that region. Chihuahua can go berserk sometimes.
Great article. Is there any satellite/photo verification of these massive numbers? If they're there, I can't believe that Russia wouldn't send a couple of bombers to take them out.
I wonder if someone could kindly help me with a rather naive question - I appreciate a broadbrush is always hard but…
From what I’ve been able to see reported in the UK I seem to find Lukashenko and Orban and a few MEPs of “old eastern states” speaking a lot of common sense.
My question is I guess am I being propagandised from “the other side”?
Are these leaders liked in their countries?
I’ve left Putin out, although again I find him a skilled orator and speaking aligned to my views, as I think it’s possibly a rather more complex question and topic…
So the US/Ukraine didn't cross every red line that everyone knew that Russia had in Ukraine? You know, like the #1 thing and what Russia demanded when they allowed Ukraine to actually become it's own country - Constitutional neutrality.
Germany bought Russia’s natural gas and gave Russia a solid economic foundation to build upon. All Putin had to do was not invade Ukraine!?! And he couldn’t do it!?! WTF??? Now Germany will buy more expensive American LNG.
Germany was still buying Russia gas after the invasion, until the CIA blew up the pipeline. WTF???
Now Germany is triple fucked and Russia will end up with all of Ukraine east of the Dnipro. NATO will be without arms, and western debt levels will destroy their societies with currency collapse.
Hi thank you and absolutely I agree. I guess what I am wondering is almost the reverse, can I trust myself in finding Lukashenko and Orban and others to be fighting for us all in the western world? And are they trusted and respected in their own countries?
This guy is a propagandist. The entire foundation of the claim is a statement by the President of Belarus (Lukashenko) who was explaining the context surrounding the movement of Belarus forces to and from their border with Ukraine. One of the attack routes used by the Russians at the beginning of the SMO was south from Belarus, so the Ukrainians likely have some level of troops along that border to slow down any possible second attack towards Kiev from the north. But there's good reason to think Lukashenko exaggerates the numbers of Ukrainian troops in order to make the situation for Belarus seem more dangerous than it is, to justify whatever actions he's taking. Lukashenko has every reason to give the largest possible number rather than the smallest. This is making a lot of hay out of a single piece of (questionable) information here.
I strongly suspect the Russians will also build up troops along that border again for an offensive into northeastern Ukraine, and Lukashenko might be helping to hide that troop buildup. Putin has said they can't negotiate with the Ukrainians anymore, so it sounds like the Russians have decided to go for Ukrainian surrender - which will require either taking or at least threatening Kiev. The Ukrainians probably have a decent number of troops up there, but they won't be front line units because those are all actively engaged in the south. If the Ukrainians really have 120,000 troops effectively in reserve, why aren't they using them in Donbass or Kursk? Why send 10-15k troops into Kursk while 120k sit idly along the border? Andrew the genius, also ignores the part where Lukashenko says the Ukrainians pulled a bunch of troops out, a sign they are thinning their forces already.
This looks like someone who is pro-Ukraine seizing on a single statement by Lukashenko to claim that things aren't as bad as they seem for the Ukrainians. They likely have mobilized large numbers of warm bodies, and maybe have tens of thousands of them along the border, but it's unlikely those troops are effective at all. They're conscripting women and young men now, giving them little training or equipment. For half a year now we know Zelensky has been conscripting 16 yr old boys, so the 25 yr old line is more gaslighting. Just like the German Volkssturm (people's storm) are they really going to "fight until the last Ukrainian?" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkssturm
On another note, they may have units, that on paper, total 120k in that region, but have stripped them of half their battalions as losses mount in the south. Nobody has asked "how does Lukashenko know the exact number of troops, and why haven't the Russians confirmed this?" I wouldn't be surprised to see another parallel with WWII, where the Germans had to pull so many troops out of the lines in certain areas (like west of Stalingrad) that they opened up fatal vulnerabilities.
Putin dreams big—crappy land and old bodies to heat and feed!! Russia has been exposed as a paper bear! While the eagle soars and now has one less thing to worry about as it pivots towards the dragon.
So far, more than 20 percent of Ukraine has been incorporated into Russia. To give you a sense of scale, here are some comparisons: imagine the entire country of South Korea or Greece being occupied by a foreign country. Not bad, right? However, we shouldn't forget that the war is still ongoing, and there is a chance that Ukraine may not exist at all.
Over 16,000 sanctions have been imposed against Russia by the West, yet Russia is still prevailing. Not bad for a country that was ridiculed not long ago by American imperialists as nothing else but "a gas station masquerading as a country."
Thirty of the world's richest countries have actively allied against Russia, yet Russia is still prevailing.
The West has spent 200 billion dollars on Ukraine, yet Russia is still prevailing.
Despite the war and all the sanctions against Russia, the Russian economy is growing while Western countries are facing recession.
Despite the war, the Russian industrial and military complex is continuously producing cutting-edge weapons, surpassing the West in weapons production by a large margin.
Despite the war, Russia has enough professional soldiers in its ranks, and conscription is not necessary.
Despite the war, Russia's reputation in the world has dramatically increased. Putin is greeted as a hero in most parts of the world, including Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Despite the war, Putin's popularity among conservatives in the West has significantly increased. He is considered the only defender of Western-Christian civilization and the savior of the world.
Despite the war, a great deal of hardworking Christians from the West (i.e., those opposing extreme leftist agendas in their countries) have already settled or are planning to settle in Russia. Thanks to recent changes in Russian immigration policies, their numbers are expected to rise sharply.
In short, these achievements are unprecedented in modern history. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be remembered as one of the greatest leaders of all time, compared to Peter the Great or Julius Caesar.
Some really good points. I also agree that when this ends there might not be an Ukraine. I like to imagine how much money BlackRock is going to lose with all the land and resources they have purchased in Ukraine if Russia is pushed to just take the whole country. Now I should say I don’t think that is how it will play out. Moldova Poland Belarus etc will all take back parts of Ukraine they feel was originally theirs and Russia will take the other half of the country.
Qatar has very little land and it’s 100% crappy…and they are the wealthiest country to ever exist!! And they don’t want more citizens either!! It’s 2024!! Putin is a dummmassss!! America could have 20 million more citizens tomorrow if we just gave illegals amnesty…would you support that??
This is one of the most nonsensical responses I have seen. What are you referring to and how does it relate to the conversation? I imagine it doesn’t relate and you are just trolling. Btw Qatar is not the richest country but it is in the top 10 per capita.
How does Luka know how many Ukrainian troops are along the border? Maybe the Russians should borrow his intelligence assets. Then they wouldn't get surprised.
Can any other source confirm/deny the claim of the president of Belarus and talk about what Ukraine has as operational and strategic reserves and what new units have been created to account for this alleged 120K troops.
It's interesting that there are virtually no Western sources for looking at the military situation in detail across the front in detail except maybe ISW. And even ISW is biased by its support of Ukraine and doesn't really do an order of battle or battle map with Russian and Ukrainian brigade locations identified insofar as they are known.
It's strange that technology affords more options for media to do a journalistic version of battle tracking but yet they seem disinclined to do it.
This guy is a propagandist. The entire foundation of the claim is a statement by the President of Belarus (Lukashenko) who was explaining the context surrounding the movement of Belarus forces to and from their border with Ukraine. One of the attack routes used by the Russians at the beginning of the SMO was south from Belarus, so the Ukrainians likely have some level of troops along that border to slow down any possible second attack towards Kiev from the north. But there's good reason to think Lukashenko exaggerates the numbers of Ukrainian troops in order to make the situation for Belarus seem more dangerous than it is, to justify whatever actions he's taking. Lukashenko has every reason to give the largest possible number rather than the smallest. This is making a lot of hay out of a single piece of (questionable) information here.
I strongly suspect the Russians will also build up troops along that border again for an offensive into northeastern Ukraine, and Lukashenko might be helping to hide that troop buildup. Putin has said they can't negotiate with the Ukrainians anymore, so it sounds like the Russians have decided to go for Ukrainian surrender - which will require either taking or at least threatening Kiev. The Ukrainians probably have a decent number of troops up there, but they won't be front line units because those are all actively engaged in the south. If the Ukrainians really have 120,000 troops effectively in reserve, why aren't they using them in Donbass or Kursk? Why send 10-15k troops into Kursk while 120k sit idly along the border? Andrew the genius, also ignores the part where Lukashenko says the Ukrainians pulled a bunch of troops out, a sign they are thinning their forces already.
This looks like someone who is pro-Ukraine seizing on a single statement by Lukashenko to claim that things aren't as bad as they seem for the Ukrainians. They likely have mobilized large numbers of warm bodies, and maybe have tens of thousands of them along the border, but it's unlikely those troops are effective at all. They're conscripting women and young men now, giving them little training or equipment. For half a year now we know Zelensky has been conscripting 16 yr old boys, so the 25 yr old line is more gaslighting. Just like the German Volkssturm (people's storm) are they really going to "fight until the last Ukrainian?" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkssturm
On another note, they may have units, that on paper, total 120k in that region, but have stripped them of half their battalions as losses mount in the south. Nobody has asked "how does Lukashenko know the exact number of troops, and why haven't the Russians confirmed this?" I wouldn't be surprised to see another parallel with WWII, where the Germans had to pull so many troops out of the lines in certain areas (like west of Stalingrad) that they opened up fatal vulnerabilities.
So, can we finally drop the "Ukraine is out of troops and will collapse on its own" nonsense?
No.
120,000 troops on the Belarus border would be pretty easy to see, yet no one is reported to actually be seeing them.
That would be 1/10th the total fighting force of Ukraine pre-war. That would be a stupid thing to do, unless he goal has been to start a big war and not simply fight Russia back to Russia.
So unless the goal has always been to start WWIII, which it well may have been from the West's side, since they are bankrupt and collapsing, then it does not make any sense at all.
No, this is just propaganda. The short example is notice he says the age was dropped from 28 to 25.....gaslighting...at the end of of 2022 Ukraine had already openly said any one 18 to 60 was being forced into service. Since then we know they have been grabing kids as young as 16.
We've been hearing similar dismissals for over two years now.
Feral slowly realizing maybe all of his Substack subscriptions are money down the drain. The good news—Taibbi now has more than enough money to send his kids to Wesleyan…he’ll need another year of your money for Ivy League admission! 😉
Which wife of Chiang Kai-shek is your fave?
Polish Volunteers. I believe Belarus does not have enough military capacities to deal with Poland and Ukraine from two directions. If Belarus asks for Russian help, it is about time. It is also about time for Russia to return troops "borrowed" from Kaliningrad Oblast back to that region. Chihuahua can go berserk sometimes.
Great article. Is there any satellite/photo verification of these massive numbers? If they're there, I can't believe that Russia wouldn't send a couple of bombers to take them out.
Yes, confirming/denying Lukashenko's claim would seem to be the journalistic task of the moment.
I wonder if someone could kindly help me with a rather naive question - I appreciate a broadbrush is always hard but…
From what I’ve been able to see reported in the UK I seem to find Lukashenko and Orban and a few MEPs of “old eastern states” speaking a lot of common sense.
My question is I guess am I being propagandised from “the other side”?
Are these leaders liked in their countries?
I’ve left Putin out, although again I find him a skilled orator and speaking aligned to my views, as I think it’s possibly a rather more complex question and topic…
If you live in the West, then yes, you are inundated with nonstop propaganda.
The west has lied about everything for a very long time. Ukraine/Russia is no exception.
So Putin didn’t invade Ukraine?? 🧐
So the US/Ukraine didn't cross every red line that everyone knew that Russia had in Ukraine? You know, like the #1 thing and what Russia demanded when they allowed Ukraine to actually become it's own country - Constitutional neutrality.
Germany bought Russia’s natural gas and gave Russia a solid economic foundation to build upon. All Putin had to do was not invade Ukraine!?! And he couldn’t do it!?! WTF??? Now Germany will buy more expensive American LNG.
Germany was still buying Russia gas after the invasion, until the CIA blew up the pipeline. WTF???
Now Germany is triple fucked and Russia will end up with all of Ukraine east of the Dnipro. NATO will be without arms, and western debt levels will destroy their societies with currency collapse.
But maybe that's been the plan?
Hi thank you and absolutely I agree. I guess what I am wondering is almost the reverse, can I trust myself in finding Lukashenko and Orban and others to be fighting for us all in the western world? And are they trusted and respected in their own countries?
I would say yes and no.
The West has enormous reserves of soft power, in spite of everything.
This guy is a propagandist. The entire foundation of the claim is a statement by the President of Belarus (Lukashenko) who was explaining the context surrounding the movement of Belarus forces to and from their border with Ukraine. One of the attack routes used by the Russians at the beginning of the SMO was south from Belarus, so the Ukrainians likely have some level of troops along that border to slow down any possible second attack towards Kiev from the north. But there's good reason to think Lukashenko exaggerates the numbers of Ukrainian troops in order to make the situation for Belarus seem more dangerous than it is, to justify whatever actions he's taking. Lukashenko has every reason to give the largest possible number rather than the smallest. This is making a lot of hay out of a single piece of (questionable) information here.
I strongly suspect the Russians will also build up troops along that border again for an offensive into northeastern Ukraine, and Lukashenko might be helping to hide that troop buildup. Putin has said they can't negotiate with the Ukrainians anymore, so it sounds like the Russians have decided to go for Ukrainian surrender - which will require either taking or at least threatening Kiev. The Ukrainians probably have a decent number of troops up there, but they won't be front line units because those are all actively engaged in the south. If the Ukrainians really have 120,000 troops effectively in reserve, why aren't they using them in Donbass or Kursk? Why send 10-15k troops into Kursk while 120k sit idly along the border? Andrew the genius, also ignores the part where Lukashenko says the Ukrainians pulled a bunch of troops out, a sign they are thinning their forces already.
This looks like someone who is pro-Ukraine seizing on a single statement by Lukashenko to claim that things aren't as bad as they seem for the Ukrainians. They likely have mobilized large numbers of warm bodies, and maybe have tens of thousands of them along the border, but it's unlikely those troops are effective at all. They're conscripting women and young men now, giving them little training or equipment. For half a year now we know Zelensky has been conscripting 16 yr old boys, so the 25 yr old line is more gaslighting. Just like the German Volkssturm (people's storm) are they really going to "fight until the last Ukrainian?" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkssturm
On another note, they may have units, that on paper, total 120k in that region, but have stripped them of half their battalions as losses mount in the south. Nobody has asked "how does Lukashenko know the exact number of troops, and why haven't the Russians confirmed this?" I wouldn't be surprised to see another parallel with WWII, where the Germans had to pull so many troops out of the lines in certain areas (like west of Stalingrad) that they opened up fatal vulnerabilities.
Putin dreams big—crappy land and old bodies to heat and feed!! Russia has been exposed as a paper bear! While the eagle soars and now has one less thing to worry about as it pivots towards the dragon.
Your delusional ranting is comedic!
The bear is weak! The eagle soars!! Cry more, buttboi!!!
BAHAHA!
Then laugh more! I know I’m laughing at Putin for winning the George W Bush Award for being a dummmmassss on a global level. 🥇 🏆
So far, more than 20 percent of Ukraine has been incorporated into Russia. To give you a sense of scale, here are some comparisons: imagine the entire country of South Korea or Greece being occupied by a foreign country. Not bad, right? However, we shouldn't forget that the war is still ongoing, and there is a chance that Ukraine may not exist at all.
Over 16,000 sanctions have been imposed against Russia by the West, yet Russia is still prevailing. Not bad for a country that was ridiculed not long ago by American imperialists as nothing else but "a gas station masquerading as a country."
Thirty of the world's richest countries have actively allied against Russia, yet Russia is still prevailing.
The West has spent 200 billion dollars on Ukraine, yet Russia is still prevailing.
Despite the war and all the sanctions against Russia, the Russian economy is growing while Western countries are facing recession.
Despite the war, the Russian industrial and military complex is continuously producing cutting-edge weapons, surpassing the West in weapons production by a large margin.
Despite the war, Russia has enough professional soldiers in its ranks, and conscription is not necessary.
Despite the war, Russia's reputation in the world has dramatically increased. Putin is greeted as a hero in most parts of the world, including Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Despite the war, Putin's popularity among conservatives in the West has significantly increased. He is considered the only defender of Western-Christian civilization and the savior of the world.
Despite the war, a great deal of hardworking Christians from the West (i.e., those opposing extreme leftist agendas in their countries) have already settled or are planning to settle in Russia. Thanks to recent changes in Russian immigration policies, their numbers are expected to rise sharply.
In short, these achievements are unprecedented in modern history. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be remembered as one of the greatest leaders of all time, compared to Peter the Great or Julius Caesar.
Some really good points. I also agree that when this ends there might not be an Ukraine. I like to imagine how much money BlackRock is going to lose with all the land and resources they have purchased in Ukraine if Russia is pushed to just take the whole country. Now I should say I don’t think that is how it will play out. Moldova Poland Belarus etc will all take back parts of Ukraine they feel was originally theirs and Russia will take the other half of the country.
Qatar has very little land and it’s 100% crappy…and they are the wealthiest country to ever exist!! And they don’t want more citizens either!! It’s 2024!! Putin is a dummmassss!! America could have 20 million more citizens tomorrow if we just gave illegals amnesty…would you support that??
This is one of the most nonsensical responses I have seen. What are you referring to and how does it relate to the conversation? I imagine it doesn’t relate and you are just trolling. Btw Qatar is not the richest country but it is in the top 10 per capita.
Ditto Mick’s comment, and note that an observable agglomeration of 120,000 troops is glide-bomb bait. Show me.
thanks Andrew. If it is known there are so many Ukranian troups in one place, why hasn't Russia attacked them already via aerial raids and missiles?
Made up number - this is Lukashenko, hardly known for trying to maintain his personal credibility.
And as others have said, 120k would mean some definitel easy targets for Russia to take out a few hundred at a time.
How does Luka know how many Ukrainian troops are along the border? Maybe the Russians should borrow his intelligence assets. Then they wouldn't get surprised.
Can any other source confirm/deny the claim of the president of Belarus and talk about what Ukraine has as operational and strategic reserves and what new units have been created to account for this alleged 120K troops.
It's interesting that there are virtually no Western sources for looking at the military situation in detail across the front in detail except maybe ISW. And even ISW is biased by its support of Ukraine and doesn't really do an order of battle or battle map with Russian and Ukrainian brigade locations identified insofar as they are known.
It's strange that technology affords more options for media to do a journalistic version of battle tracking but yet they seem disinclined to do it.
This guy is a propagandist. The entire foundation of the claim is a statement by the President of Belarus (Lukashenko) who was explaining the context surrounding the movement of Belarus forces to and from their border with Ukraine. One of the attack routes used by the Russians at the beginning of the SMO was south from Belarus, so the Ukrainians likely have some level of troops along that border to slow down any possible second attack towards Kiev from the north. But there's good reason to think Lukashenko exaggerates the numbers of Ukrainian troops in order to make the situation for Belarus seem more dangerous than it is, to justify whatever actions he's taking. Lukashenko has every reason to give the largest possible number rather than the smallest. This is making a lot of hay out of a single piece of (questionable) information here.
I strongly suspect the Russians will also build up troops along that border again for an offensive into northeastern Ukraine, and Lukashenko might be helping to hide that troop buildup. Putin has said they can't negotiate with the Ukrainians anymore, so it sounds like the Russians have decided to go for Ukrainian surrender - which will require either taking or at least threatening Kiev. The Ukrainians probably have a decent number of troops up there, but they won't be front line units because those are all actively engaged in the south. If the Ukrainians really have 120,000 troops effectively in reserve, why aren't they using them in Donbass or Kursk? Why send 10-15k troops into Kursk while 120k sit idly along the border? Andrew the genius, also ignores the part where Lukashenko says the Ukrainians pulled a bunch of troops out, a sign they are thinning their forces already.
This looks like someone who is pro-Ukraine seizing on a single statement by Lukashenko to claim that things aren't as bad as they seem for the Ukrainians. They likely have mobilized large numbers of warm bodies, and maybe have tens of thousands of them along the border, but it's unlikely those troops are effective at all. They're conscripting women and young men now, giving them little training or equipment. For half a year now we know Zelensky has been conscripting 16 yr old boys, so the 25 yr old line is more gaslighting. Just like the German Volkssturm (people's storm) are they really going to "fight until the last Ukrainian?" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkssturm
On another note, they may have units, that on paper, total 120k in that region, but have stripped them of half their battalions as losses mount in the south. Nobody has asked "how does Lukashenko know the exact number of troops, and why haven't the Russians confirmed this?" I wouldn't be surprised to see another parallel with WWII, where the Germans had to pull so many troops out of the lines in certain areas (like west of Stalingrad) that they opened up fatal vulnerabilities.
Russia will soon awaken the bear. Let’s all buckle up, it’s going to get crazy.
Why won't Russia mobilise toatleast scare zelensky
Cuz it's unnecessary, obviously.