There’s no way for anyone to put a positive spin on what just happened. Only those comparatively few Western radicals driven by bloodlust consider Kiev’s latest terrorist attack to be a positive development worth applauding. All decent people the world over are revolted by what it just did.
"Nothing else explains why they’d greenlight this self-discrediting attack..."
How about this: the people who really make the decisions (in the American swamp) needed some way to stall for time because they were afraid their much-vaunted counteroffensive would fail. They've tried everything else, but this could work — a stalling tactic. Now everyone can make loud noises, wring their hands and cry crocodile tears, 'Oh why, oh why..?' 'But they promised they wouldn't invade Russia-proper and we believed them. Now, everything will have to cool down while we make sure it's all going to be OK; then, and only then — because they listen to us so carefully and are so eager to make sure they do things in a proper, civilised manner, unlike the barbaric Russians — will they feel happy about launching a civilised counteroffensive.' Isn't that 5-D chess, as you (?) call it?
"No calm and confident actor resorts to terrorism, which is always committed from a position of weakness by the side that can’t match its opponent’s conventional strength."
Yep, sounds like the YankeeDoodle swamp to me.
"Considering this, it can be intuited that Kiev is well aware of how unlikely it is that its much-hyped counteroffensive will succeed in breaking Russia’s formidable defenses absent some black swan event."
You're getting there. Just replace 'Kiev' above with 'YankeeDoodleSwamp' and Bob's yer uncle (Am. Eng. 'Bingo!').
"...it’s instead trying to achieve some psychological and soft power ones instead."
"...only result in misleading more Westerners."
Try this, '...lead the Gullible&Credulous to believe Kiev can be helped to understand how it may also join the Exceptional League by listening more carefully to its curators, which is why it is no longer planning to launch the Great Counteroffensive until it feels properly reformed by the Truly Exceptional.' That should make everyone feel better about rampant inflation, crumbling social provision and perverse societal values.
"...it keeps pro-Kiev supporters’ hopes of their side’s supposedly inevitable “ultimate victory” unrealistically high."
I'll grant you: they're stupid; but not THAT stupid. No-one harbours such hope any more.
"...which could lead to a massive loss of morale all across the West."
Au contraire, ironically: morale all over the world, not just across the Exceptional parts, at such a significant step towards healthier life on Earth will enjoy the most refreshing gasp of long-awaited fresh air it has experienced in a long, long time. Kinda tough if you live in a swamp, though.
"There’s no way for anyone to put a positive spin on what just happened."
Yes, there is; try this: 'It should start to make some people, who have so far been able to bury their heads in comfortable sands of denial, start to think.'
"There’s now no doubt that Kiev commits terror and just needlessly lost itself even more Western supporters."
OK, so what's not positive about that?