Jun 2, 2023Liked by Andrew Korybko

Having seen how Joe Biden has behaved in the past, turning his back on defeated South Vietnamese and Afghani Allies, I would wager that once Ukraine is utterly defeated rather than risk nuclear annihilation Joe Biden will just turn his back on Kiev and just say “Fuxk ‘em!”

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"...the upcoming counteroffensive could be catastrophic for its continued existence as a nation..."

'That's OK — no great loss — because it was never really a proper nation, anyway.' seems to be the obvious logic of its curators; which is odd at first glance, because it would seem to be just the opposite of what they claim to believe.

If, however, you think about what they say Russia believes about the Ukraine and fit it into the context of accusatory inversion (pot calling kettle black)... It all fits and makes sense.

Think, 'hypocrisy'.

"...ceasefire and peace talks are necessary."

I disagree. I don't think anything can change until America accepts and comes to terms with what it has done, which needs to incorporate appropriate degrees of contrition, remorse, begging for forgiveness (and it needs to be of the genuine, sincere, on-your-knees stuff with plenty of weeping for forgiveness) and (¡Bloody expensive!) reparation, lots and lots of reparation to include, e.g. the NordStream attacks.

"...that could then be sold as a 'victory' to voters..."

I think you overestimate the importance of this factor. Genuine democracy isn't as important to Americans, nor any other bully, as you seem to think. They've backed themselves into a corner here for far more simple, childish reasons. I think that might be why you, accordingly, overestimate the potential of negotiation. No swapping of marbles will convince the bully he can't come back to the playground to do the same thing tomorrow. If s/he won't submit to reason, some other means needs to be employed to make them understand they are wrong and may not continue to behave as they have in the past.

"All sides agree that peace talks will inevitably end the conflict..."

Wrong! Maybe they could cool it off for today, but they won't sort out for tomorrow.

"...until it delivers a 'victory' that’ll satisfy voters’..."

It's not as simple as that. It runs much deeper into the national psyche.

"Anything less could doom Biden’s re-election as well as imperial the prospects of his fellow Democrats’..."

See above; their polls are not that important, they don't care about them THAT much. They do care about their self-image, though, like a child; think, 'playground bully'. The imperial prospects of the Democrats? Yes, but that would imply there's some difference between Republicans and Democrats (with regard to foreign policy). There isn't; ignorance is (bully-boy) bliss, that's where they're at and that's where they intend to stay.

Their exceptionally dramatic 'deep' state, as they perceive it, (although it's no more 'special' or 'deep' — exceptional — than anyone else's; it's just a state, corrupted by civil servants) controls core policy and has no intention of relinquishing control, as Trump proved by the failure of his most important 2015-16 campaign pledge to "Drain the swamp!".

"...due to NATO’s 'race of logistics'/'war of attrition'...

This is another thing, the importance of which you overestimate: yes, of course, logistics ARE important, very important. They are not, however, as important as the people fighting the war. The Russians are behind this war; they believe in it because they know they are right. The Americans — whether you choose to call them NATO, or bully boys, or whatever — are not. That's more important than logistics; hence Stoltenberg, for example, trying to convince himself it's not.

"...foreign military assistance to Ukraine will be curtailed sooner than later..."

Yep, you can rely on that!

"...exploiting Ukraine’s military collapse as the pretext for moving NATO troops to the front lines in order to freeze the conflict."

This is why it is so important for the Russians, and indeed the whole world, not to stop until they are in Lvov, having pacified the entire Ukraine. This is what the Ukrainian people, not their corrupt politicians, obviously, want. When the time comes, they will welcome it accordingly.

"...[the] Ukraine would therefore fall under their nuclear umbrella despite not being a formal member."

Which would mean the 'containment' (destruction, dismemberment, and manipulated re-assembly) of Russia. All Russia knows this. How can you live in Moscow and miss it?

"...there’s no doubt that it’ll be a bloodbath for Ukraine exactly as Orban predicted."

Not necessarily; soldiers themselves are often not as stupid as their commanders convince themselves they could/should be; they may simply choose not to fight and vote with their feet. They're not ALL fruitcake fascists. (Don't be such a bigot.) There is hope for the Ukraine and I'm sure they will find their way, working to rebuild alongside the Russians, as they always have.

"...yet there’s almost certainly no chance that the US will call everything off due to its domestic political calculations."

It's not just domestic political calculations; it's not as simple as that. See above.

It runs down to the root of the culture in imperialism and bullying. You can blame the British if doing so makes it easier. Whatever you need to do, do it more quickly because people are dying while those who could stop it keep barking up the wrong trees and getting lost in rabbit holes.

"By the time this conflict ends, there’ll be tens of thousands more Ukrainians dead, if not hundreds of thousands."

Well, yeah, that's a damn shame but they did bring it on themselves (by indulging delusion proffered by the Americans). It's the Russians I feel bad about (not sorry for): they've done everything they possibly could to avoid this, yet have had it forced upon them anyway. They are, quite literally, saving the world, paying for it with the lives of good men (not demented perverts, like we have in the West) but no-one seems to notice.

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