Accepting the impossibility of Russia abandoning its mutually beneficial cooperation with China and acknowledging that lifting the sanctions likely won’t happen either, the rest of his proposals could form the parameters of a potential Russian-American deal for ending their proxy war in Ukraine.
It is critical to Biden's political survival not to seem to have lost in the "SMO." It is also critical to Putin's political survival not to be seen as having lost in the SMO. So a ceasefire and negotiations are unlikely to occur until after the 2024 presidential elections. It is also critical to Biden's political survival not to be seen as starting World War III. That is why arms to Ukraine have been given in dribs and drabs. If Russia were to make the kind of breakthrough mentioned above, the arms that have been withheld so far would no doubt be supplied, possibly leading to the kind of defeat of Russian forces that would imperil Mr.Putin. Yet all realist foreign policy experts in the US (Mearsheimer is an example) agree that the removal of Mr.Putin puts Russia at risk of a political vacuum and power struggle that might end in civil war and the eventual breakup of the Russian Federation. This would be a political catastrophe of the highest order given the quantity of strategic nuclear weapons possesed by RF. This is why I do not want Ukraine to "win the war," because that would have the consequences just outlined. It is therefore in everybodys interest that the war (sorry, SMO) continue in the stalemate that is under way at present.
"...Ukraine’s privileged post-conflict relationship with NATO..."
No!
"...but these could be acceptable if its other interests are met."
No!
"...what it truly is: Russia putting its interests first."
No!
Couldn't be more simple, really: the most dangerously fallacious analysis I've witnessed you produce.
It is critical to Biden's political survival not to seem to have lost in the "SMO." It is also critical to Putin's political survival not to be seen as having lost in the SMO. So a ceasefire and negotiations are unlikely to occur until after the 2024 presidential elections. It is also critical to Biden's political survival not to be seen as starting World War III. That is why arms to Ukraine have been given in dribs and drabs. If Russia were to make the kind of breakthrough mentioned above, the arms that have been withheld so far would no doubt be supplied, possibly leading to the kind of defeat of Russian forces that would imperil Mr.Putin. Yet all realist foreign policy experts in the US (Mearsheimer is an example) agree that the removal of Mr.Putin puts Russia at risk of a political vacuum and power struggle that might end in civil war and the eventual breakup of the Russian Federation. This would be a political catastrophe of the highest order given the quantity of strategic nuclear weapons possesed by RF. This is why I do not want Ukraine to "win the war," because that would have the consequences just outlined. It is therefore in everybodys interest that the war (sorry, SMO) continue in the stalemate that is under way at present.