Von Der Leyen Just Subordinated The EU As The US’ Largest-Ever Vassal State
This outcome places the US on the path of restoring its unipolar hegemony via sequential lopsided trade deals as it likely sets its sights on the Americas next before finally taking on Asia.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed to a framework deal with the US whereby the EU will be charged 15% tariffs on most imports, commit to purchasing $750 billion in US energy exports, and invest $600 billion into the US economy, some of which will be military purchases. US tariffs on EU steel and aluminum exports will remain at 50% while the EU agreed not to tariff the US at all. The alternative to this lopsided arrangement was for Trump to impose his threatened 30% tariffs by 1 August.
The EU’s macroeconomic strength was greatly weakened over the past 3,5 years as a result of the anti-Russian sanctions that it imposed in solidarity with the US on what had hitherto been its cheapest and most reliable energy supplier. It was therefore already at a critical disadvantage in any prospective trade war. The EU’s failure to reach a major trade deal with China since Trump’s return to office, such as during their most recent summit late last week, made Sunday’s outcome a fait accompli in hindsight.
The end result is that the EU just subordinated itself as the US’ largest-ever vassal state. The US’ 15% tariffs on most imports will reduce EU production and profits, thus making a recession more likely. The bloc’s commitment to purchasing more expensive US energy will become more onerous in that event. Likewise, its pledge to buy more US arms will undermine the “ReArm Europe Plan”, with the combined effect of the aforesaid concessions further ceding the EU’s already reduced sovereignty to the US.
This can in turn embolden the US to press for better terms in its ongoing trade negotiations with others. On the North American front, Trump envisages reasserting the US’ hegemony over Canada and Mexico via economic means, which can enable him to more easily expand “Fortress America” southward. If he succeeds in subordinating Brazil, then everything between it and Mexico will naturally fall in line. This series of deals along with last week’s one with Japan would bolster Trump’s hand with China and India.
He ideally hopes to replicate his Japanese and European successes with those two Asian anchors of BRICS, which together represent around 1/3 of humanity, but it can’t be taken for granted that he will. Trump’s best chance of coercing them into similarly lopsided arrangements requires him placing the US in the most advantageous geo-economic position possible during their talks, ergo the need to rapidly build “Fortress America” via a series of trade deals, and then proving that his tariff threats aren’t bluffs.
“The Sino-Indo Rivalry Will Shape Trump’s Anti-Russian Secondary Sanctions Decision” as explained in the preceding analysis, with this variable and the US’ Kissingerian triangulation policy most significantly determining the future of their trade talks. If he fails, then Trump might not impose 100% tariffs on China and/or India, but some would still be expected. Nevertheless, with Japan, the EU, and likely “Fortress America” on his side, this “Global West” could insulate the US from some of the consequences.
The grand strategic importance of the EU subordinating itself as the US’ largest-ever vassal state is therefore that it places the US on the path of restoring its unipolar hegemony via sequential trade deals as it likely sets its sights on the Americas next before finally taking on Asia. There’s no guarantee that the US will succeed, and a series of lopsided trade deals with major economies would only partially restore US-led unipolarity, but Trump’s moves still represent a possibly existential threat to multipolarity.
Sound analysis as usual. I like to make the case for one step further: sack the EU leadership for gross incompetency.
The European Union finds itself at a critical juncture in global trade diplomacy. In the span of a few years, it has failed to finalize a key investment deal with China, surrendered critical leverage with the United States, and severed its most strategically advantageous trade relationship with Russia. Russia was not only a major energy supplier, but also the foundation of the EU’s profitable economic model—offering low-cost energy inputs, a significant export market, and, crucially, a competitive choice of trading partners that served as a counterweight to overdependence on any single global power. With three catastrophic economic miscalculations in rapid succession, confidence in the EU Commission’s competence has eroded. One could reasonably argue that such a record justifies calls for its dismissal on grounds of gross strategic and economic failure.
Read in detail on my substack article: Europe's Strategic Trade Crossroads: Between U.S. Dependency and Chinese Stalemate @ https://leonvermeulen.substack.com/
Sick. Don't agree that this restores US hegemony because the rest of the world will not cave in, and the US is on the verge of a total economic and political collapse. "The Americas" are already leaving the American sector, and the BRICS+ are solidifying their position as the future order of the world. Trump will singlehandedly destroy the USA, NATO and the EU in very short order. Perhaps then European countries will reclaim their sovereignty and self-respect and join BRICS.