What’s Holding Up The Speculative Russian-Eritrean Naval Base Talks?

The Russian Ambassador appeared to tacitly confirm that such talks are underway during his latest interview with TASS but suggested that Eritrea wants more than just rent in exchange for a base.

Russian Ambassador to Eritrea Igor Mozgo updated TASS on the state of bilateral relations in his latest interview, which was published across several brief news blurbs on their Russian-language portal here. The present piece will summarize his insight before analyzing the significance of their ties. To begin with, Ambassador Mozgo praised Eritrea’s support of Russia’s growing role in Africa, which he said serves as a counterweight to Western influence and is therefore in both of their interests.

He also said that Eritrea “advocates the permanent presence of our fleet in the Red Sea”, but added that “everything depends on the negotiating position of [their] side”, hinting that Asmara did indeed offer Moscow a naval base earlier this year during their first-ever drills as was written about here. He then noted that bilateral ties “surged” after the special operation, which he attributed to Eritreans “waiting for a long time to see who would dare to ‘slap’ and put the West in its place.”

As for the future of their relations, Ambassador Mozgo lamented that “Economic cooperation between our countries lags far behind political interaction” and pretty much only concerns Russian wheat exports to Eritrea at present, though some opportunities exist to possibly develop fisheries. Tourism is difficult due to underdeveloped infrastructure, no visa-free travel, and a lack of electronic payment systems, but there are still some nice snorkeling trips for those luxury tourists who have the cash to pay for them.

On the multilateral level, Russia’s top diplomat in Eritrea observed that his hosts are “already indirectly included in the orbit” of BRICS due to President Isaias Afwerki’s participation in last year’s Johannesburg Summit and his country’s participation in this month’s BRICS sports games in Kazan. For that reason, Eritrea might be included in the newly formed category of BRICS partner countries, but he clarified that “It’s too early to join the union” and “The Eritreans give preference to bilateral relations” in any case.

Altogether, his interview served to inform Russians of their country’s relations with a little-known African partner that’s voted in solidarity with it since the start of the special operation, but he didn’t share any new information apart from tacit confirmation that Eritrea is interested in hosting the Russian navy. As he said, however, “everything depends on the negotiation position of [their] side”. This suggests that Asmara wants more in return from Moscow than just rent and that’s what’s holding up the talks.

This piece here from last winter about Russia’s Ethiopian-Eritrean balancing act and this follow-up here about how “Paranoid Regional Containment Policies Are Fueling Chaos In The Horn” explain Asmara’s zero-sum mindset in detail and should be read by those who aren’t already familiar with it. The relevance to this piece is that Eritrea might have demanded that Russia take its side against Ethiopia, Russia’s oldest African partner, in exchange for a base. That would be unacceptable for Moscow.

Not only would it violate the enduring principle of Russia’s post-Soviet foreign policy, which is to balance between competing pairs of countries so long as one of them isn’t hostile to it, but there are three other opportunities available so Moscow wouldn’t need to capitulate to Asmara’s speculative demand. Somaliland might offer such facilities in exchange for recognition, the latest high-level talks with Yemen could result in the same, and the resumption of related talks with Sudan on this subject are promising.

With these alternative options available, there’s no reason for Russia to backstab its over 125-year-long Ethiopian partner out of desperation to obtain docking rights of some sort on its rival’s Red Sea coast, so Eritrea should rescind that speculative demand if that’s what’s indeed holding up the talks. A successful deal could serve as the anchor for Russian investments into Eritrea’s untapped mineral wealth that would in turn help bring tangible improvements to its mostly impoverished people with time.