To be clear, the explanations and forecasts shared in this analysis concern the scenario of a Russian rapprochement with the West upon the successful conclusion of peace talks with the US, they’re not in any way a declaration of what will absolutely come to pass.
Logically possible, nothing to pick on. However, people who like history tend to have long-lasting memories. At first, the Swedes did it, then the Poles, the French, the British, the Japanese, the Germans and Italians, and the Americans. So it seems only Canadians among the G7 don't have a historical feud with Russia and never invaded Russia until the Russian SMO. What can Russia gain besides selling natural resources for money? Accepting immigration from Germany? Trade rapprochement maybe, security cooperation? A good fence makes a good neighbor.
Besides markets for resources, Russia seeks investment and technology transfer, thus creating jobs for Russian skilled workers.
The West seeks investment destinations to generate returns to pay for western pensions, without the workers working for those invrstments actually moving to the West.
"This convergence of interests might even see them working together in third countries as part of a new modus vivendi to liberate them from the yoke of the liberal-globalist holdovers that the US is now actively purging from its “deep state”." ... Excellent idea! (I'm from Europe)
Your characterization of the 'Deep State' as the collection of unelected bureaucrats is the simplistic notion that the real Deep State is more than happy to promote. Although there are certainly powerful forces in this section, the Deep State also includes the security state—military and intelligence—but is mostly driven by plutocrats and oligarchs. These are the bosses behind the scenes that the lower levels obey. For example, Allen Dulles, the CIA maven who pushed the Bay of Pigs invasion, ran Operation Paperclip to save German Nazis, and likely organized the JFK assassination was first a Wall Street lawyer and obeyed moneyed dictates. That there are factions and divisions among this group is the basis of American politics, but their bedrock agreement is the primacy of capital and American supremacy. See Aaron Goode's AMERICAN EXCEPTION.
Very true. As long as a lot of assets in Russia, China, etc. will be closed to full or part ownership by Wall Street (via fiat money that they don't need to break a sweat to create), there will be a deep state in the US. Over there, there is the ideological fixation that everything must be privately owned. Of course US can buy Greenland, it can print all those dollars. But if it were to pay in gold minted dollars, like it payed for Alaska, I am not that sure if US could bring that transaction to the finish line... The present value of US gold reserves is maybe 450-500 billion USD, which would be a fair price for Greenland. This is what Denmark, Greenlanders would need to ask. Sign the papers only after the last kilogram is deposited somewhere in Copenhagen...
Deep state is not driven by oligarchs. Otherwise, they would have welcomed Musk. They don't. Nope, unelected and relatively sub-IQ bureaucrats for their payscale and education would be a more fitting characterization. Enriched by DEI of course.
"For the first time since the end of the Old Cold War, America under Trump’s second administration now openly prefers populist-nationalist leaders and movements "
This might be true in declamatory rethoric, but while Putin and in Russia there is a continuous effort to increase the well being of ordinary Russians, Trump is only easing up the life of oligarchs and the rich.
In an ideal world, this would be great. In the REAL WORLD, this isn't going to happen. Trump will be gone in four years. You may get a "Trump Lite" for another four to eight years. More likely, you will get another neocon or puppet like Biden and you are back to square one. That's just the Americans. The EU could do another Minsk 1 and 2 to knowingly lie about their intentions. It may ultimately be best to hold the West at arms length and exploit foreign policy opportunities in Africa and Asia. The West has ignored Africa. Make the West "work for it" by developing relationships there and elsewhere.
It's simple. It doesn't cost anything, doesn't require huge concessions from either side, none of that. Both sides just need to acknowledge the power and interests of the other and to be able to trust in some minimal standards of conduct. That although we are competing, our interests are broadly the same in terms of wanting a peaceful, orderly international system.
Though it shouldn't be necessary, add to the list the most important fact: We still live in a MAD scenario. Far too many have repressed or are too ignorant and/or young to comprehend this reality.
Andrew, unless you’re privy to Russia and China’s most carefully guarded secrets, you have no clue as to whether China did or did not covertly support Russia’s war efforts, and if so how? The British and American intelligence agencies are good but not that good. And, hypothetically, if those intelligence agencies did know, they might have had good reasons to keep it quiet, say because neither Britain nor the US is yet ready to take on China, let alone China and Russia.
Andrew, I assume that US-Russia detente will lead to normalization of Russo-German trade in hydrocarbons, something that conflicts with US exports to Europe of US LNG. How will Trump protect US LNG exports while mending Russo-German trade ties?
Prior to 2022 Russians were supplying Germany at sub-market price. At the moment, they are supplying China and particularly India at sub-market prices. They were also using Turkish, Gulf-state and Indian middlemen to continue supplies to Europe. Once sanctions are away, they can cut out the middlemen and gently raise prices for everyone. Anyway, once price differential India&China vs Europe disappears, European Chemical companies will have less reason to move their operations to India&China.
Logically possible, nothing to pick on. However, people who like history tend to have long-lasting memories. At first, the Swedes did it, then the Poles, the French, the British, the Japanese, the Germans and Italians, and the Americans. So it seems only Canadians among the G7 don't have a historical feud with Russia and never invaded Russia until the Russian SMO. What can Russia gain besides selling natural resources for money? Accepting immigration from Germany? Trade rapprochement maybe, security cooperation? A good fence makes a good neighbor.
Besides markets for resources, Russia seeks investment and technology transfer, thus creating jobs for Russian skilled workers.
The West seeks investment destinations to generate returns to pay for western pensions, without the workers working for those invrstments actually moving to the West.
" Besides markets for resources, Russia seeks investment and technology transfer, thus creating jobs for Russian skilled workers. "
These skilled workers?
" Russia and India to ink labor migration deal – envoy
The proposed agreement will enable the flow of skilled Indian workers to Russia, Indian Ambassador Vinay Kumar has said "
https://www.rt.com/india/612010-russia-and-india-workforce-agreement/
"This convergence of interests might even see them working together in third countries as part of a new modus vivendi to liberate them from the yoke of the liberal-globalist holdovers that the US is now actively purging from its “deep state”." ... Excellent idea! (I'm from Europe)
Talk about hopium.
Your characterization of the 'Deep State' as the collection of unelected bureaucrats is the simplistic notion that the real Deep State is more than happy to promote. Although there are certainly powerful forces in this section, the Deep State also includes the security state—military and intelligence—but is mostly driven by plutocrats and oligarchs. These are the bosses behind the scenes that the lower levels obey. For example, Allen Dulles, the CIA maven who pushed the Bay of Pigs invasion, ran Operation Paperclip to save German Nazis, and likely organized the JFK assassination was first a Wall Street lawyer and obeyed moneyed dictates. That there are factions and divisions among this group is the basis of American politics, but their bedrock agreement is the primacy of capital and American supremacy. See Aaron Goode's AMERICAN EXCEPTION.
Very true. As long as a lot of assets in Russia, China, etc. will be closed to full or part ownership by Wall Street (via fiat money that they don't need to break a sweat to create), there will be a deep state in the US. Over there, there is the ideological fixation that everything must be privately owned. Of course US can buy Greenland, it can print all those dollars. But if it were to pay in gold minted dollars, like it payed for Alaska, I am not that sure if US could bring that transaction to the finish line... The present value of US gold reserves is maybe 450-500 billion USD, which would be a fair price for Greenland. This is what Denmark, Greenlanders would need to ask. Sign the papers only after the last kilogram is deposited somewhere in Copenhagen...
Deep state is not driven by oligarchs. Otherwise, they would have welcomed Musk. They don't. Nope, unelected and relatively sub-IQ bureaucrats for their payscale and education would be a more fitting characterization. Enriched by DEI of course.
G8, not G7
Technically, Russia would be returning to the G7 to make it the G8, but I see what you're saying.
"For the first time since the end of the Old Cold War, America under Trump’s second administration now openly prefers populist-nationalist leaders and movements "
This might be true in declamatory rethoric, but while Putin and in Russia there is a continuous effort to increase the well being of ordinary Russians, Trump is only easing up the life of oligarchs and the rich.
Alt-Media fantasies aside, it has long been obvious that Russia seeks, not to destroy the West, but to join it.
The problem has been that Russia wishes to join the West as a partner and not as a supplicant.
In an ideal world, this would be great. In the REAL WORLD, this isn't going to happen. Trump will be gone in four years. You may get a "Trump Lite" for another four to eight years. More likely, you will get another neocon or puppet like Biden and you are back to square one. That's just the Americans. The EU could do another Minsk 1 and 2 to knowingly lie about their intentions. It may ultimately be best to hold the West at arms length and exploit foreign policy opportunities in Africa and Asia. The West has ignored Africa. Make the West "work for it" by developing relationships there and elsewhere.
It's simple. It doesn't cost anything, doesn't require huge concessions from either side, none of that. Both sides just need to acknowledge the power and interests of the other and to be able to trust in some minimal standards of conduct. That although we are competing, our interests are broadly the same in terms of wanting a peaceful, orderly international system.
But this can't happen with the current attitudes.
Though it shouldn't be necessary, add to the list the most important fact: We still live in a MAD scenario. Far too many have repressed or are too ignorant and/or young to comprehend this reality.
Andrew, unless you’re privy to Russia and China’s most carefully guarded secrets, you have no clue as to whether China did or did not covertly support Russia’s war efforts, and if so how? The British and American intelligence agencies are good but not that good. And, hypothetically, if those intelligence agencies did know, they might have had good reasons to keep it quiet, say because neither Britain nor the US is yet ready to take on China, let alone China and Russia.
The US IC has a relatively good idea at the amount of Sino-Russian trade taking place. Whatever admin, that's one of their top priorities.
Andrew, I assume that US-Russia detente will lead to normalization of Russo-German trade in hydrocarbons, something that conflicts with US exports to Europe of US LNG. How will Trump protect US LNG exports while mending Russo-German trade ties?
Prior to 2022 Russians were supplying Germany at sub-market price. At the moment, they are supplying China and particularly India at sub-market prices. They were also using Turkish, Gulf-state and Indian middlemen to continue supplies to Europe. Once sanctions are away, they can cut out the middlemen and gently raise prices for everyone. Anyway, once price differential India&China vs Europe disappears, European Chemical companies will have less reason to move their operations to India&China.