Israel knows which way the wind is blowing and will therefore do whatever is needed to ensure that its interests are safeguarded by key players in the global systemic transition.
I appreciate your close watch on this scenario, Andrew. What a tangled web is weaved! Are you betting that the USA base in Syria will be removed? Interesting that the concern over Turkiey encroachment is greater than concern over Israel's as far as Russia might see it. However, Russia might be guarding against further encroachment by anyone.
I too am curious about the US’s continued presence in Syria - uninvited and apparently for the primary purpose of ‘skimming’ Syria’s oil and grain resources without compensating Syria or its citizens. Trump somewhat famously said in his first term that he was leaving US troops there to “protect the oil”. It’s my understanding that the oil and wheat are brokered by Türkiye with Israel as a likely beneficiary. I’m not sure why Andrew K. did not address this in his fine analysis but I’m guessing that he sees this as another ‘can of worms’ that would distract readers from his primary thesis.
The current geopolitical issues that plague Western Asia - Middle East all stem from European colonial-imperial interferences commencing in the 18th century. The colonial collapse (particularly Britain and France) that occurred post WW2 provided the opportunity for USA to exert its economic and military prowess towards regime change and subversion of Turkic-Arabic cultures and nations and their natural resources. The installation of US/Zionism within modern Israel keeps this open wound from healing. USA is located far away across the Atlantic Ocean and is the only non-Western Asian nation continuing to exert tyranny; (UK and France are now bordering on irrelevance). If USA were to completely withdraw from the scene then local influences will resolve these issues in their own way.
"According to them, Israel fears that Hamas might relocate to Syria and then operate from there under Turkish protection, which could drastically worsen Israeli-Turkish tensions."
What makes anyone think that the United States (or Turkey) would allow this?
Turkey's fairly independent - it can play US, EU, Russia and China against each other. Traditionally (like 70-46 years ago), Israel had good relations with Turkey and Iran, while relations with most immediate neighbors were bad. Now, this has reversed. See the Kashoggi incident.
Turkish elites like their western vacations, their western bank accounts, their London trophy properties, admissions to Yale or Duke for their offspring, shiny western toys.
The standard U.S. reaction should be to encourage Syria to send the Russians home. However, since we have President Trump, chances are that in this case he will subject U.S. geopolitical interests blindly to Israel’s desires. Also, if members of the new Syrian government read history books they will learn fast that Russia is generally a dependable partner to work with. As soon as Russia is allowed to walk away from the Ukraine conflict they will be able to handsomely reciprocate the favor there as they seriously need those bases in the Mediterranean.
I appreciate your close watch on this scenario, Andrew. What a tangled web is weaved! Are you betting that the USA base in Syria will be removed? Interesting that the concern over Turkiey encroachment is greater than concern over Israel's as far as Russia might see it. However, Russia might be guarding against further encroachment by anyone.
I too am curious about the US’s continued presence in Syria - uninvited and apparently for the primary purpose of ‘skimming’ Syria’s oil and grain resources without compensating Syria or its citizens. Trump somewhat famously said in his first term that he was leaving US troops there to “protect the oil”. It’s my understanding that the oil and wheat are brokered by Türkiye with Israel as a likely beneficiary. I’m not sure why Andrew K. did not address this in his fine analysis but I’m guessing that he sees this as another ‘can of worms’ that would distract readers from his primary thesis.
Vanessa Beeley says pretty much the same thing.
The current geopolitical issues that plague Western Asia - Middle East all stem from European colonial-imperial interferences commencing in the 18th century. The colonial collapse (particularly Britain and France) that occurred post WW2 provided the opportunity for USA to exert its economic and military prowess towards regime change and subversion of Turkic-Arabic cultures and nations and their natural resources. The installation of US/Zionism within modern Israel keeps this open wound from healing. USA is located far away across the Atlantic Ocean and is the only non-Western Asian nation continuing to exert tyranny; (UK and France are now bordering on irrelevance). If USA were to completely withdraw from the scene then local influences will resolve these issues in their own way.
"According to them, Israel fears that Hamas might relocate to Syria and then operate from there under Turkish protection, which could drastically worsen Israeli-Turkish tensions."
What makes anyone think that the United States (or Turkey) would allow this?
Turkey's fairly independent - it can play US, EU, Russia and China against each other. Traditionally (like 70-46 years ago), Israel had good relations with Turkey and Iran, while relations with most immediate neighbors were bad. Now, this has reversed. See the Kashoggi incident.
Turkish elites like their western vacations, their western bank accounts, their London trophy properties, admissions to Yale or Duke for their offspring, shiny western toys.
The standard U.S. reaction should be to encourage Syria to send the Russians home. However, since we have President Trump, chances are that in this case he will subject U.S. geopolitical interests blindly to Israel’s desires. Also, if members of the new Syrian government read history books they will learn fast that Russia is generally a dependable partner to work with. As soon as Russia is allowed to walk away from the Ukraine conflict they will be able to handsomely reciprocate the favor there as they seriously need those bases in the Mediterranean.