Israel knows which way the wind is blowing and will therefore do whatever is needed to ensure that its interests are safeguarded by key players in the global systemic transition.
"According to them, Israel fears that Hamas might relocate to Syria and then operate from there under Turkish protection, which could drastically worsen Israeli-Turkish tensions."
What makes anyone think that the United States (or Turkey) would allow this?
Turkey's fairly independent - it can play US, EU, Russia and China against each other. Traditionally (like 70-46 years ago), Israel had good relations with Turkey and Iran, while relations with most immediate neighbors were bad. Now, this has reversed. See the Kashoggi incident.
Turkish elites like their western vacations, their western bank accounts, their London trophy properties, admissions to Yale or Duke for their offspring, shiny western toys.
Turkey, and its imperial plans, have nothing to gain from confronting Israel. Israel has no resources worth spitting at, other than a large disgruntled population. Its territory is small and only useful as a beachhead to the overseas hegemon, not to Turkey which is itself in the Levant. Taking on Israel, from Turkey's point of view, would antagonize NATO and probably bring about crippling sanctions and a US intervention, for no practical gain.
Siding with Israel and the US against Iran, on the other hand, is just the ticket to restoring Ottoman glory. The keystone of the former empire was Mesopotamia, which is well within Turkey's reach if its troops, and its Syrian jihadist vassals (who have already started cleansing the Shiites), take part in a US orchestrated attack on Iran, Turkey's principal rival for the status of regional hegemon.
Even if such a venture fails to actually occupy Iran, it will weaken it and make not just Syria but Iraq into a Turkish vassal, with control over the oil and gas fields in Kurdistan and potential domination over the Gulf oil countries, including Saudi Arabia. Presto, the Ottoman empire largely restored, with America's blessing, no sanctions, vast territories and resources to heal the Turkish economy.
Turkey has no actual qualms cooperating with Israel, as long as Turkish interest is served; all the ruckus about Turkey being anti-Israel is just kayfabe, two wrestlers pretending to be enemies for the sake of the audience.
And this kind of war is what the American military likes best, a proxy war with the US providing satellite intelligence and air supremacy from afar. It is likely the Iranian highlands will not actually be occupied; the goal of the war is to break Iran's prosperity and influence and ruin it, making it a failed country like they did with Libya, Afghanistan, and Syria. Turkey is intended to replace Iran as the dominant power over Mesopotamia and the Gulf.
Basically, this. The only thing Turkey has to gain from emnity with Israel is a claim to moral leadership over the Sunni, and the US has too much leverage over Turkey for it to be worth the cost to the Turkish leadership.
I appreciate your close watch on this scenario, Andrew. What a tangled web is weaved! Are you betting that the USA base in Syria will be removed? Interesting that the concern over Turkiey encroachment is greater than concern over Israel's as far as Russia might see it. However, Russia might be guarding against further encroachment by anyone.
I too am curious about the US’s continued presence in Syria - uninvited and apparently for the primary purpose of ‘skimming’ Syria’s oil and grain resources without compensating Syria or its citizens. Trump somewhat famously said in his first term that he was leaving US troops there to “protect the oil”. It’s my understanding that the oil and wheat are brokered by Türkiye with Israel as a likely beneficiary. I’m not sure why Andrew K. did not address this in his fine analysis but I’m guessing that he sees this as another ‘can of worms’ that would distract readers from his primary thesis.
In the immortal words of Admiral Ackbar, "It's a trap!" The moment something starts to stir in the Middle East---and I am envisioning that something as a joint Turkish-Israeli attack on Iran, with HTS as the cannon fodder and the US providing the satellite intelligence and air supremacy---these bases will become hostage against Russia coming to Iran's help. That is why Israel wants to keep them there, not because of any putative leverage against Hezbollah or Turkey, which is unworkable for lack of ground mobility, among other things.
Unlike aircraft carriers, to which some have compared them, the bases are essentially indefensible against a determined assault by ground forces. When established in a friendly Syria, the local army, however shitty, provided at least a buffer against such an assault. This is no longer the case. The local regime has already demonstrated how easily it can blockade access to the bases. Merely besieging the bases and threatening assault will be a powerful blackmail against Russia, and it will not be used now---it will be used when it matters, at a critical juncture. And in the murky political climate of the Middle East this can easily be done by proxy, without the real button-pushers identifying themselves overtly. This liability must not be allowed to continue.
What the current climate of false laissez-faire towards the Russian presence allows, is the luxury of gradual withdrawal. Key weapons systems and intelligence should be evacuated. Personnel should be reduced to absolute skeleton levels, they cannot defend these bases anyway. Everything should be prepared to evacuate the last people and abandon or demolish the infrastructure at the drop of a hat. And in a way that depends on no one's good will. Essentially, Surovikin's maneuver in withdrawing from the Kherson beachhead should be repeated here, for much the same reasons, only more so.
Of course, if Russia does decide to quietly skeletonize these bases, we will not be hearing about this on the news. So maybe they are already doing so.
The current geopolitical issues that plague Western Asia - Middle East all stem from European colonial-imperial interferences commencing in the 18th century. The colonial collapse (particularly Britain and France) that occurred post WW2 provided the opportunity for USA to exert its economic and military prowess towards regime change and subversion of Turkic-Arabic cultures and nations and their natural resources. The installation of US/Zionism within modern Israel keeps this open wound from healing. USA is located far away across the Atlantic Ocean and is the only non-Western Asian nation continuing to exert tyranny; (UK and France are now bordering on irrelevance). If USA were to completely withdraw from the scene then local influences will resolve these issues in their own way.
The standard U.S. reaction should be to encourage Syria to send the Russians home. However, since we have President Trump, chances are that in this case he will subject U.S. geopolitical interests blindly to Israel’s desires. Also, if members of the new Syrian government read history books they will learn fast that Russia is generally a dependable partner to work with. As soon as Russia is allowed to walk away from the Ukraine conflict they will be able to handsomely reciprocate the favor there as they seriously need those bases in the Mediterranean.
"According to them, Israel fears that Hamas might relocate to Syria and then operate from there under Turkish protection, which could drastically worsen Israeli-Turkish tensions."
What makes anyone think that the United States (or Turkey) would allow this?
Turkey's fairly independent - it can play US, EU, Russia and China against each other. Traditionally (like 70-46 years ago), Israel had good relations with Turkey and Iran, while relations with most immediate neighbors were bad. Now, this has reversed. See the Kashoggi incident.
Turkish elites like their western vacations, their western bank accounts, their London trophy properties, admissions to Yale or Duke for their offspring, shiny western toys.
Turkey, and its imperial plans, have nothing to gain from confronting Israel. Israel has no resources worth spitting at, other than a large disgruntled population. Its territory is small and only useful as a beachhead to the overseas hegemon, not to Turkey which is itself in the Levant. Taking on Israel, from Turkey's point of view, would antagonize NATO and probably bring about crippling sanctions and a US intervention, for no practical gain.
Siding with Israel and the US against Iran, on the other hand, is just the ticket to restoring Ottoman glory. The keystone of the former empire was Mesopotamia, which is well within Turkey's reach if its troops, and its Syrian jihadist vassals (who have already started cleansing the Shiites), take part in a US orchestrated attack on Iran, Turkey's principal rival for the status of regional hegemon.
Even if such a venture fails to actually occupy Iran, it will weaken it and make not just Syria but Iraq into a Turkish vassal, with control over the oil and gas fields in Kurdistan and potential domination over the Gulf oil countries, including Saudi Arabia. Presto, the Ottoman empire largely restored, with America's blessing, no sanctions, vast territories and resources to heal the Turkish economy.
Turkey has no actual qualms cooperating with Israel, as long as Turkish interest is served; all the ruckus about Turkey being anti-Israel is just kayfabe, two wrestlers pretending to be enemies for the sake of the audience.
And this kind of war is what the American military likes best, a proxy war with the US providing satellite intelligence and air supremacy from afar. It is likely the Iranian highlands will not actually be occupied; the goal of the war is to break Iran's prosperity and influence and ruin it, making it a failed country like they did with Libya, Afghanistan, and Syria. Turkey is intended to replace Iran as the dominant power over Mesopotamia and the Gulf.
Basically, this. The only thing Turkey has to gain from emnity with Israel is a claim to moral leadership over the Sunni, and the US has too much leverage over Turkey for it to be worth the cost to the Turkish leadership.
I appreciate your close watch on this scenario, Andrew. What a tangled web is weaved! Are you betting that the USA base in Syria will be removed? Interesting that the concern over Turkiey encroachment is greater than concern over Israel's as far as Russia might see it. However, Russia might be guarding against further encroachment by anyone.
I too am curious about the US’s continued presence in Syria - uninvited and apparently for the primary purpose of ‘skimming’ Syria’s oil and grain resources without compensating Syria or its citizens. Trump somewhat famously said in his first term that he was leaving US troops there to “protect the oil”. It’s my understanding that the oil and wheat are brokered by Türkiye with Israel as a likely beneficiary. I’m not sure why Andrew K. did not address this in his fine analysis but I’m guessing that he sees this as another ‘can of worms’ that would distract readers from his primary thesis.
Vanessa Beeley says pretty much the same thing.
In the immortal words of Admiral Ackbar, "It's a trap!" The moment something starts to stir in the Middle East---and I am envisioning that something as a joint Turkish-Israeli attack on Iran, with HTS as the cannon fodder and the US providing the satellite intelligence and air supremacy---these bases will become hostage against Russia coming to Iran's help. That is why Israel wants to keep them there, not because of any putative leverage against Hezbollah or Turkey, which is unworkable for lack of ground mobility, among other things.
Unlike aircraft carriers, to which some have compared them, the bases are essentially indefensible against a determined assault by ground forces. When established in a friendly Syria, the local army, however shitty, provided at least a buffer against such an assault. This is no longer the case. The local regime has already demonstrated how easily it can blockade access to the bases. Merely besieging the bases and threatening assault will be a powerful blackmail against Russia, and it will not be used now---it will be used when it matters, at a critical juncture. And in the murky political climate of the Middle East this can easily be done by proxy, without the real button-pushers identifying themselves overtly. This liability must not be allowed to continue.
What the current climate of false laissez-faire towards the Russian presence allows, is the luxury of gradual withdrawal. Key weapons systems and intelligence should be evacuated. Personnel should be reduced to absolute skeleton levels, they cannot defend these bases anyway. Everything should be prepared to evacuate the last people and abandon or demolish the infrastructure at the drop of a hat. And in a way that depends on no one's good will. Essentially, Surovikin's maneuver in withdrawing from the Kherson beachhead should be repeated here, for much the same reasons, only more so.
Of course, if Russia does decide to quietly skeletonize these bases, we will not be hearing about this on the news. So maybe they are already doing so.
The current geopolitical issues that plague Western Asia - Middle East all stem from European colonial-imperial interferences commencing in the 18th century. The colonial collapse (particularly Britain and France) that occurred post WW2 provided the opportunity for USA to exert its economic and military prowess towards regime change and subversion of Turkic-Arabic cultures and nations and their natural resources. The installation of US/Zionism within modern Israel keeps this open wound from healing. USA is located far away across the Atlantic Ocean and is the only non-Western Asian nation continuing to exert tyranny; (UK and France are now bordering on irrelevance). If USA were to completely withdraw from the scene then local influences will resolve these issues in their own way.
The standard U.S. reaction should be to encourage Syria to send the Russians home. However, since we have President Trump, chances are that in this case he will subject U.S. geopolitical interests blindly to Israel’s desires. Also, if members of the new Syrian government read history books they will learn fast that Russia is generally a dependable partner to work with. As soon as Russia is allowed to walk away from the Ukraine conflict they will be able to handsomely reciprocate the favor there as they seriously need those bases in the Mediterranean.