From Russia’s perspective, it would be more ideal for India to mediate a resolution to this conflict than for China to do so since its established balancing/pragmatic policymaking faction wants to avoid diplomatic indebtedness to Beijing.
Outstanding article. I hope Xi is not stupid enough to think China can really play a decisive hand in mediating the Ukraine War. Xi is about the most inept Chinese leader in terms of strategy and policy decision (although as brutal as Mao). Hopefully he does understand the critical importance of consulting Russians' opinions before any public action.
I think they have tried that once before, except last time it was a fake plea, while this time it may be more honest. My doubts about China's potential to react per Ukraine's wishes are multiple. (1) China's own relationship with Taiwan. China still has intention to grab Taiwan someday somehow. (2) China depends on Russia far more than Russia depends on China. Putin's Asia tornado visit tours suggests Russia re-positioning. (3) China and Russia's interests about Ukraine is NOT fully aligned. China wants the cheaper wheat from Ukraine than Russia exports. Ukraine is poorer than Russia and needs more consumer goods. (4) China's military is not entirely paper tiger, but its combat quality is under deep doubt, even in China. China badly needs Russia's experience in Ukraine to deal with Taiwan, which is almost entirely American equipped since 1949. Many government troop reaching Taiwan n 1949 had thrown away their domestic made weapons but kept the American made weapons. It has a long tradition. Many pilots of Taiwan, if not all, are partially American trained.
Therefore, if China is stupid enough to be not completely aligned with Russia on Ukraine (Russia can tolerate differences on other fronts) then China's own future is in doubt. Yes, no kidding. Russia without China could have won in Ukraine just the same, and with roughly the same trajectory, not missing many beats. But China without Russia has no chance against US-assisted Taiwan. China has to convince USA to give up Taiwan than use Russian experience to deal with Taiwan's military. Otherwise, China can only depend on the old scheme (not a bad one) to slowly marinate and roast the chicken. Eventually the chicken will be soft and ready to serve. Communism and leftists are very good at infiltration and slowly turning the big ship. Look at US domestic situation since 1968.
China without Russia has no chance against US-assisted Taiwan? China without Russia inflicted the worse military defeat in modern history on the US Army in 1951, when China was at its weakest.
Today's PLA is much bigger, better armed and more eager to fight than our little forces and second rate weapons that must be supported from 6500 miles away.
Yes and no. China PLA in a sense defeated USA and its allies. But also because Americans did not want to invest more so there could be a decent force to defend Europe. Russia not only helped to arm NK, but also PLA. Russia also armed PLA. T-34, Yak-9, Mig-15 were given to China. Mig-15 with full kits and full blue print plus full set of Russian technicians. In effect, they brought a production line to China, to Shengyang, the largest city in Manchuria and it is still one of the key air industry base. In movie The bridge over tokuri (?) The plane of the main character was hit by flak. But equal opportunity for him to be shot down by a Chinese MIG-15. NK has no AF at that time.
Now the Chinese force. They were far from the legendary image of dry rice plus rifle kind of fighters. Roughly 3.5 million soldiers served through the Korean war. Officially slightly more tan half a million killed, 0.6 million wounded. Unofficial estimates is killed+wounded ~ 1.5 million or more. About half of the participating forces actually used American weapons because a large chunk of force were former Republic of China government forces who surrendered. US gave RoC 30 division worth of equipment, and another 15 divisions worth or so after the war and some purchased by RoC government. Roughly two thirds were lost during the 1945-1949 civil war. Before the Korean war, some of the surrendered general still commanded forces. After Korean war, none of the surrendered generals command any force. The troop had been wiped out by the American firepower. Chinese tactics usually involve one full infantry regiment to attack one US company stationed on a mountain top during the night, precisely as the movie pork chop Hill depicts. Americans' real experience with the human waves is in the Korean War. Vietnam, in comparison, see very few human waves in actual combat (not enough wide open space :-)
Is modern PLA significantly stronger ? On the surface, yes. The AF is easily 100x of Korean war (in the second half of the war, PLAAF routinely had 150 mig-15 in the sky, almost every day) The navy is easy 10,000x versus Korean War era. However, the capabilities are not as good as they advertise (Chinese tradition: always exaggerate one's own military power) They certainly cannot be under estimated. As you said, USA has a very long logistics line. However, USA has huge warehouse in Japan mainland, not just Okinawa, and at Guam. USA supply from USA mainland has little chance to reach the battleground except some might be delivered to Japan by strategic airlift. If a military war does happen, the decision would be obvious in 3 days and concluded in about 7 days.
Taiwan's main defense strategy is to cause maximal casualty to PLA. CCP officials are quite willing to sacrifice their forces to reach their goals, but that does not mean without their own calculations. More and more Chinese recruits are the only child in a family. If taking Taiwan costs too much social havoc, Xi would not get what he really wants (a position in history comparable to Mao) Right now China is already a boiling pot, it runs the risk of bursting out due to any small mishandling. Stronger and stronger forces are needed for domestic stability. In official budget, China already spends more on domestic security than on military (surely military spending has some hidden, but it does show how big a need for domestic control)
From CCP View, the best way to take Taiwan is from inside the fortress. And they have made good progress there. Not only people in Taiwan have gradually losing faith in US protection, and leaning more towards Japan, but also many Taiwanese elites gradually see the American way as a rotten way. Even China's surviving dissidents inside China (yes still some) stat to have doubts on American democracy. Therefore, the combat will, the spiritual endurance, and how much a people is willing to sacrifice for independence are altogether more important factors than all the usual military calculation. My own understanding ? If ground troops land on Taiwan, Taiwan's army will surrender. Taiwan's elite are in the AF and Navy. In a full scale war, they will last about 3 days.
Jeju island off the southern coast of Korea peninsula at one time holds almost 100K POW for the allied forces. Mostly from PLA (NKA rarely captured or surrendered) and about 14k chose to be expatriated to Taiwan (should be more, but Indian Army played the hand for China) Virtually all of them were formerly RoC government troop captured by PLA or surrendered to PLA before 1949. Had Americans saw PLA wave and turned and bug out, where did these POW come from? US military forces actually did mostly OK in most wars after WW2. It is the political leaders who failed them and failed the country. The leftist propaganda aims not only to mislead you, but also wants to make you disbelieve each and everything outright. Covid Vaccines are bad so far, but not so for all other vaccines before covid. Did police use excessive force? Surely that happened, but not all police use excessive force.
You are delusional if you think India can even dream of carrying any diplomatic heft with Russia. India is a deeply disfunctional, barely literate country and while Russia would like to maintain good trade relations with it, it will never accept India as a "mediator" in its strategic relations. India needs Russia much more than Russia needs India (not least because of the energy supplies). And there's no such thing as "indebtedness" in diplomatic matters, by definition; the foundation of diplomacy--by definition--is reciprocity.
Doubt India will have a negotiating role in Ukraine war. The country which takes the role will have to provide army to protect peace. Can India do that?
All comments written by "westerners" who clearly don't understand China, Russia & India do not care what the "west" or "westerners" think or what they think they know.
You fundamentally do not get BRICS- decent relations based on mutually beneficial trade and respect for sovereignty.
Concepts long forgotten, if they ever existed in the "exceptional west".
Great fun though speculating on what you think you know through the filter of your western exceptionalism and indoctrination.
Meanwhile your own societies are collapsing around you- soon to hit a critical inflection point where they collectively tumble into the economic abyss.
While you go back & forth about what peace in Ukraine looks like and who will "win" as the lead peace maker- you miss the most likely probability- Ukraine will cease to exist.
For Russia it is not about Ukraine- it is about America & NATO getting to close.
Russia is going to continue advancing across Ukraine until every American & NATO asset- human & machine- is withdrawn from or destroyed on Ukrainian territory.
AND- reduced American/NATO presence in central Europe.
Given America & NATO will never "agree" to this- Russia will continue to Ukraines west border to create and secure the buffer they require.
India has reason to worry that all this progress might be reversed if China calls in its diplomatic debt and gets Russia to distance itself somewhat from India. It’s no secret that China and India are embroiled in a fierce border dispute??
If you were China, would you do that? America would, of course, but China just as certainly wouldn't. For one thing, it's really, really busy. For another, it really doesn't give a damn about that border, unless India invades China again. India is a minor nuisance and America is a major nuisance but that's all they are now: nuisances.
Outstanding article. I hope Xi is not stupid enough to think China can really play a decisive hand in mediating the Ukraine War. Xi is about the most inept Chinese leader in terms of strategy and policy decision (although as brutal as Mao). Hopefully he does understand the critical importance of consulting Russians' opinions before any public action.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba was in Beijing last week, asking Mr Xi to talk with Mr. Putin..They're not complete idiots, after all.
I think they have tried that once before, except last time it was a fake plea, while this time it may be more honest. My doubts about China's potential to react per Ukraine's wishes are multiple. (1) China's own relationship with Taiwan. China still has intention to grab Taiwan someday somehow. (2) China depends on Russia far more than Russia depends on China. Putin's Asia tornado visit tours suggests Russia re-positioning. (3) China and Russia's interests about Ukraine is NOT fully aligned. China wants the cheaper wheat from Ukraine than Russia exports. Ukraine is poorer than Russia and needs more consumer goods. (4) China's military is not entirely paper tiger, but its combat quality is under deep doubt, even in China. China badly needs Russia's experience in Ukraine to deal with Taiwan, which is almost entirely American equipped since 1949. Many government troop reaching Taiwan n 1949 had thrown away their domestic made weapons but kept the American made weapons. It has a long tradition. Many pilots of Taiwan, if not all, are partially American trained.
Therefore, if China is stupid enough to be not completely aligned with Russia on Ukraine (Russia can tolerate differences on other fronts) then China's own future is in doubt. Yes, no kidding. Russia without China could have won in Ukraine just the same, and with roughly the same trajectory, not missing many beats. But China without Russia has no chance against US-assisted Taiwan. China has to convince USA to give up Taiwan than use Russian experience to deal with Taiwan's military. Otherwise, China can only depend on the old scheme (not a bad one) to slowly marinate and roast the chicken. Eventually the chicken will be soft and ready to serve. Communism and leftists are very good at infiltration and slowly turning the big ship. Look at US domestic situation since 1968.
China without Russia has no chance against US-assisted Taiwan? China without Russia inflicted the worse military defeat in modern history on the US Army in 1951, when China was at its weakest.
Today's PLA is much bigger, better armed and more eager to fight than our little forces and second rate weapons that must be supported from 6500 miles away.
Yes and no. China PLA in a sense defeated USA and its allies. But also because Americans did not want to invest more so there could be a decent force to defend Europe. Russia not only helped to arm NK, but also PLA. Russia also armed PLA. T-34, Yak-9, Mig-15 were given to China. Mig-15 with full kits and full blue print plus full set of Russian technicians. In effect, they brought a production line to China, to Shengyang, the largest city in Manchuria and it is still one of the key air industry base. In movie The bridge over tokuri (?) The plane of the main character was hit by flak. But equal opportunity for him to be shot down by a Chinese MIG-15. NK has no AF at that time.
Now the Chinese force. They were far from the legendary image of dry rice plus rifle kind of fighters. Roughly 3.5 million soldiers served through the Korean war. Officially slightly more tan half a million killed, 0.6 million wounded. Unofficial estimates is killed+wounded ~ 1.5 million or more. About half of the participating forces actually used American weapons because a large chunk of force were former Republic of China government forces who surrendered. US gave RoC 30 division worth of equipment, and another 15 divisions worth or so after the war and some purchased by RoC government. Roughly two thirds were lost during the 1945-1949 civil war. Before the Korean war, some of the surrendered general still commanded forces. After Korean war, none of the surrendered generals command any force. The troop had been wiped out by the American firepower. Chinese tactics usually involve one full infantry regiment to attack one US company stationed on a mountain top during the night, precisely as the movie pork chop Hill depicts. Americans' real experience with the human waves is in the Korean War. Vietnam, in comparison, see very few human waves in actual combat (not enough wide open space :-)
Is modern PLA significantly stronger ? On the surface, yes. The AF is easily 100x of Korean war (in the second half of the war, PLAAF routinely had 150 mig-15 in the sky, almost every day) The navy is easy 10,000x versus Korean War era. However, the capabilities are not as good as they advertise (Chinese tradition: always exaggerate one's own military power) They certainly cannot be under estimated. As you said, USA has a very long logistics line. However, USA has huge warehouse in Japan mainland, not just Okinawa, and at Guam. USA supply from USA mainland has little chance to reach the battleground except some might be delivered to Japan by strategic airlift. If a military war does happen, the decision would be obvious in 3 days and concluded in about 7 days.
Taiwan's main defense strategy is to cause maximal casualty to PLA. CCP officials are quite willing to sacrifice their forces to reach their goals, but that does not mean without their own calculations. More and more Chinese recruits are the only child in a family. If taking Taiwan costs too much social havoc, Xi would not get what he really wants (a position in history comparable to Mao) Right now China is already a boiling pot, it runs the risk of bursting out due to any small mishandling. Stronger and stronger forces are needed for domestic stability. In official budget, China already spends more on domestic security than on military (surely military spending has some hidden, but it does show how big a need for domestic control)
From CCP View, the best way to take Taiwan is from inside the fortress. And they have made good progress there. Not only people in Taiwan have gradually losing faith in US protection, and leaning more towards Japan, but also many Taiwanese elites gradually see the American way as a rotten way. Even China's surviving dissidents inside China (yes still some) stat to have doubts on American democracy. Therefore, the combat will, the spiritual endurance, and how much a people is willing to sacrifice for independence are altogether more important factors than all the usual military calculation. My own understanding ? If ground troops land on Taiwan, Taiwan's army will surrender. Taiwan's elite are in the AF and Navy. In a full scale war, they will last about 3 days.
The PLA never used human waves, even when the stakes were higher than they were in Korea.
In any case, how would the Americans know what the PLA did? Their backs were turned and they were fleeing, after all.
Jeju island off the southern coast of Korea peninsula at one time holds almost 100K POW for the allied forces. Mostly from PLA (NKA rarely captured or surrendered) and about 14k chose to be expatriated to Taiwan (should be more, but Indian Army played the hand for China) Virtually all of them were formerly RoC government troop captured by PLA or surrendered to PLA before 1949. Had Americans saw PLA wave and turned and bug out, where did these POW come from? US military forces actually did mostly OK in most wars after WW2. It is the political leaders who failed them and failed the country. The leftist propaganda aims not only to mislead you, but also wants to make you disbelieve each and everything outright. Covid Vaccines are bad so far, but not so for all other vaccines before covid. Did police use excessive force? Surely that happened, but not all police use excessive force.
quite a few typos, sorry.
You are delusional if you think India can even dream of carrying any diplomatic heft with Russia. India is a deeply disfunctional, barely literate country and while Russia would like to maintain good trade relations with it, it will never accept India as a "mediator" in its strategic relations. India needs Russia much more than Russia needs India (not least because of the energy supplies). And there's no such thing as "indebtedness" in diplomatic matters, by definition; the foundation of diplomacy--by definition--is reciprocity.
Doubt India will have a negotiating role in Ukraine war. The country which takes the role will have to provide army to protect peace. Can India do that?
All comments written by "westerners" who clearly don't understand China, Russia & India do not care what the "west" or "westerners" think or what they think they know.
You fundamentally do not get BRICS- decent relations based on mutually beneficial trade and respect for sovereignty.
Concepts long forgotten, if they ever existed in the "exceptional west".
Great fun though speculating on what you think you know through the filter of your western exceptionalism and indoctrination.
Meanwhile your own societies are collapsing around you- soon to hit a critical inflection point where they collectively tumble into the economic abyss.
While you go back & forth about what peace in Ukraine looks like and who will "win" as the lead peace maker- you miss the most likely probability- Ukraine will cease to exist.
For Russia it is not about Ukraine- it is about America & NATO getting to close.
Russia is going to continue advancing across Ukraine until every American & NATO asset- human & machine- is withdrawn from or destroyed on Ukrainian territory.
AND- reduced American/NATO presence in central Europe.
Given America & NATO will never "agree" to this- Russia will continue to Ukraines west border to create and secure the buffer they require.
India has reason to worry that all this progress might be reversed if China calls in its diplomatic debt and gets Russia to distance itself somewhat from India. It’s no secret that China and India are embroiled in a fierce border dispute??
If you were China, would you do that? America would, of course, but China just as certainly wouldn't. For one thing, it's really, really busy. For another, it really doesn't give a damn about that border, unless India invades China again. India is a minor nuisance and America is a major nuisance but that's all they are now: nuisances.
Well done. Appreciate the thoughtful and multifaceted approach to the difficulties of restarting meaningful peace talks.