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Will Poland #FreeTheLeopards Without Germany’s Permission?
Just like it’s practically guaranteed that Kiev will lose the Battle of Donbass if it doesn’t get “mercenary”-operated modern tanks as soon as possible, so too is it practically guaranteed that Poland’s ruling party will lose this fall’s general elections if that happens after staking its entire reputation on Kiev’s victory.
The #FreeTheLeopards hashtag campaign started by two Finnish politicians earlier this month has taken social media by storm after the SBU-backed fascist troll network known as “NAFO” began manipulating Twitter’s algorithm in order to massively amplify it across that platform. This effort aims to “embarrass” Germany into complying with comparatively smaller- and medium-sized EU countries’ demands like Finland’s and Poland’s to authorize them to dispatch their German-provided Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
The reason why their campaign is so desperately being amplified by the SBU’s proxies right now, who to be clear are mostly real people that either willingly or inadvertently do that foreign intelligence service’s bidding, is because the Ukrainian Conflict just entered a new phase after Soledar’s liberation last week. That event prompted the Polish leadership (particularly its Prime Minister and President) to warn about Kiev’s impending defeat, the new narrative of which CNN also articulated in a recent piece this week.
As was earlier analyzed, one of the only ways to avert that scenario is for the US-led West’s Golden Billion to unprecedentedly dispatch modern tanks to their New Cold War proxy as soon as possible before Kiev loses the Battle of Donbass like many now expect might happen in the coming future. Berlin, however, is balking despite the immense pressure upon it by Poland and others via the latest artificially amplified hashtag campaign.
The EU’s de facto leader might ultimately change its mind, but if that doesn’t happen, the question naturally becomes one of whether aspiring regional hegemon Poland might send its Leopards to Ukraine without Germany’s permission. The ruling “Law & Justice” (PiS per its Polish acronym) party has a political motivation to do so since Kiev’s impending defeat in the Battle of Donbass, which is practically guaranteed if it doesn’t get “mercenary”-operated modern tanks, could doom its electoral prospects.
This fall’s general elections are expected to be extremely tough for these faux conservatives because the German-backed liberal-globalist opposition has been gaining a lot of support since narrowly losing the last vote in mid-2020. Just like it’s practically guaranteed that Kiev will lose the Battle of Donbass if it doesn’t get “mercenary”-operated modern tanks as soon as possible, so too is it practically guaranteed that PiS will lose the next elections if that happens after staking its entire reputation on Kiev’s victory.
It's with this self-interested political motivation in mind that Poland might dispatch its German-provided Leopard tanks to Ukraine without Berlin’s permission, which could in turn lead to Finland doing the same as well as others who might be “inspired” by its lead in defying the EU’s de facto leader. Should that happen, then the larger political consequences might ultimately be counterproductive for PiS since Germany would be expected to severely punish that ruling party for violating their arms agreement.
More than likely, Germany will operate through those EU institutions under its control in order to impose maximum political and perhaps also economic pressure onto Poland so as to deter others like Finland from following its lead. That said, if enough EU members end up sending their own German-provided Leopard tanks to Ukraine without Berlin’s permission just like Poland might soon do, then it’s possible that this sequence of events could further fracture the bloc’s already fraught unity.
Considering this, it can therefore be concluded that the scenario of Poland defying Germany by “freeing the Leopards” without its military-technical partner’s permission could be a political game-changer in more ways than one. Not only might it help Kiev survive the Battle for Donbass a bit longer instead of losing like might otherwise happen if it doesn’t receive those modern tanks, but it could also either lead to Poland’s further isolation from the EU or the bloc’s further fracturing if Berlin’s punishment backfires.