Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s words were that “The defeat of Ukraine may become a prelude to World War III”, which completely contradicted the US-led Western Mainstream Media’s prior claims of Kiev’s “inevitable victory”. The present analysis will explain why he discredited the past year’s “official narrative” about the Ukrainian Conflict.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki flew to Germany just several days after the Russian Ministry of Defense officially confirmed Soledar’s liberation in order to warn his hosts about Kiev’s potentially impending defeat and fearmonger about how this might lead to the outbreak of World War III. His exact words were that “The defeat of Ukraine may become a prelude to World War III”, which completely contradicted the US-led Western Mainstream Media’s (MSM) prior claims of Kiev’s “inevitable victory”.
Here's why Morawiecki discredited the past year’s “official narrative” about the Ukrainian Conflict:
* Soledar’s Liberation Truly Was Significant
The MSM earlier gaslighted that Soledar and its surroundings were being contested by Russia solely to achieve a superficial victory since this territory supposedly isn’t significant whatsoever, but those claims were exposed as false after that town’s liberation prompted the Polish premier to freak out.
* Kiev Lost A Lot Of Resources For Nothing
What would have been a pyrrhic victory had Kiev held Soledar due to the disproportionate amount of resources expended to that end turned into a devastating defeat after NATO’s proxies ultimately lost a lot of resources for nothing and thus set themselves up for further setbacks if Russia isn’t soon stopped.
* $100 Billion Thus Far Wasn’t Enough To Win
Morawiecki’s fearmongering in the aftermath of Soledar’s liberation proves that the $100 billion in aid that Kiev’s received thus far isn’t anywhere near enough for the US-led West’s Golden Billion to win their proxy war against Russia, hence why he’s urging Germany to immediately scale up its support.
* Modern Western Weapons Might Avert Kiev’s Loss
The only reason why Poland and other Western countries want to send a bunch of new weapons like modern tanks to Kiev at this particular point in time is out of desperation to avert their proxy’s loss after the military-strategic dynamics drastically changed following Soledar’s liberation late last week.
* Germany Can Relieve Military-Industrial Pressures
Finland and Poland can’t send their modern German tanks to Kiev without Berlin’s permission, which is why Morawiecki is anxiously seeking its approval since this could relieve some of the West’s military-industrial pressures that the New York Times and Biden’s Naval Secretary recently drew attention to.
Having explained his motivations, it’s now time to analyze the impact that his words could have:
* The “Official Narrative” Will Continue Changing
Quite obviously, the “official narrative” towards the conflict will continue changing after Morawiecki – whose country is Kiev’s top regional patron – seriously warned about the potential defeat of NATO’s proxies, with it being likely that the MSM will soon parrot his dramatic fearmongering.
* Average Westerners Might Still Not Buy It Though
Skepticism of the “official narrative” has been spiking across the Golden Billion over the past year so it can’t be taken for granted that average folks in this de facto New Cold War bloc will buy the MSM’s parroting of Morawiecki’s claim that World War III might be just around the corner if Kiev loses.
* Morawiecki’s Fearmongering Might Backfire
Opposition forces in major Western countries might somehow or another impede their governments’ efforts to comply with Morawiecki’s demand that they “escalate in order to de-escalate and thus avert World War III” and/or exploit his fearmongering to make a populist push for reviving peace talks.
* Responsible Deep State Voices Could Speak Up
Those responsible members of their country’s permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) could also speak up in response to Morawiecki’s fearmongering by reminding their governments of the West’s military-industrial crisis like Biden’s naval chief just did.
* A Heated Debate Might Soon Brew In the Golden Billion
In the event that “deep state” and/or opposition forces in major Western states succeed in raising maximum public awareness of their concerns about “escalating to de-escalate”, particularly with respect to their undeniable military-industrial crisis, then a heated debate might soon brew over this issue.
Considering the abovementioned ten points, here’s why it’s clear that the conflict is at a crucial phase:
* Artyomovsk’s Encirclement Could End The Battle For Donbass
Artyomovsk/Bakhmut is about to be encircled after the liberation of Soledar and surrounding towns, upon which Russia’s potential capture of this regional fortress could set into motion a fast-moving sequence of events that culminates in Moscow’s victory in the Battle for Donbass.
* Modern Western Weapons Might Freeze The Line Of Control
Provided that they’re massively dispatched on an emergency basis in the immediate future, then modern Western weapons might result in Kiev freezing the Line of Control (LOC) wherever it might be by that time irrespective of whether their proxies lose Artymovsk/Bakhmut before then or not.
* Only “Mercenaries” Can Help Kiev Keep Donbass At This Point
It’s not possible for Kiev’s forces to be trained to handle modern Western weapons like German tanks in time to make a difference in the Battle for Donbass given how fast everything is evolving right now, which means that only “mercenaries” can operate them and thus stand a chance at stopping Russia.
* NATO’s “Mission Creep” Is More Serious Than Ever
Building upon the above military-strategic observation, NATO’s “mission creep” is now at the point where the bloc must decide whether to send its servicemen to Ukraine under the cover of “mercenaries” to operate those weapons or acknowledge Kiev’s impending defeat in Donbass.
* Kiev’s Loss Of Donbass Would Lead To The West’s Defeat
The West would be defeated in its proxy war on Russia via Ukraine if Kiev loses Donbass since that region’s full liberation would herald Moscow’s victory in this conflict, hence why this de facto New Cold War bloc must either double down out of desperation or pragmatically go along with this fait accompli.
Apart from what Morawiecki is demanding, here are five other factors that could shift the dynamics:
* Kiev And/Or Russia Open Up New Fronts
Kiev could launch an offensive in Zaporozhye and/or Russia might replicate the first phase of its special operation by once again entering Ukraine from Belarus, but both entail major risks, though the first would be out of desperation to hold Donbass while the latter would be a diversion to help liberate it.
* Poland “Unilaterally” & Openly Enters Ukraine
Russia has been warning for a while already that Poland might – whether on the false pretense of acting “unilaterally” of NATO or formally as the tip of its spear – openly enter Ukraine after already clandestinely operating there since the get-go in order to either help Kiev and/or draw a line in the sand.
* NATO As A Whole Formally Enters The Conflict
This scenario is much less likely since it could have more effectively been implemented during the conflict’s earlier phases, but it still can’t be discounted that NATO as a whole might formally enter Ukraine for the same reasons as Poland might “unilaterally” do so in order to maximize the impact.
* Western Pragmatists Achieve A Breakthrough
It can’t be ruled out that those pragmatic elements within the West’s “deep state” and opposition forces achieve a breakthrough with respect to convincing a prominent member of their de facto New Cold War bloc or group thereof to immediately revive the peace process for the purpose of limiting Kiev’s losses.
* Russia Enacts Another “Goodwill Gesture”
Of similar likelihood to NATO as a whole formally entering the conflict, which is to say that it’s a fringe scenario but still shouldn’t be dismissed, there’s always the chance that Russia reconsiders its pledge to carry on the latest offensive by unexpectedly enacting another “goodwill gesture” and thus freezing it.
Some concluding thoughts will now be shared about the 20 observations shared in this analysis.
Poland is panicking since it stands to lose the most upon Kiev’s impending defeat in NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine, hence why Morawiecki discredited the “official narrative” thus far out of desperation for EU-leader Germany to authorize the emergency dispatch of its tanks to the front. Even in the event that Berlin does Warsaw’s bidding and NATO servicemen enter the fray under the cover of “mercenaries” to operate those weapons, it might still not be enough to avert Russia’s victory.
Thanks. Very informative.
Hi Andrew, I just discovered your Substack a couple weeks back through a Moon of Alabama link. This is first-rate analysis. I would gladly contribute financially but I don't see a place to do so here...
Historically speaking, USA pragmatist-realists eventually gain some sway, leading to a cut and run. The Empire's vassel states go along, of course, that's what minions do. Afghanistan was the latest example. I'd call that the preferred outcome. However, declining empires sometimes do stupid things as they desperately flail around trying to maintain their hegemony, so a worse outcome remains a distinct possibility, but hopefully a fringe one.