Will SCOTUS’ Tariff Ruling Really Result In India Defying Trump On Russian Oil?

Trump warned countries against reneging on their deals with the US, and even if he can’t legally reimpose his threatened 25% punitive tariff on India if it defiantly reverses its trend of reducing Russian oil imports, he might still resume the US’ containment of it through Pakistan and Bangladesh.

CNBC reported last week that “U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling will likely allow India to keep buying Russian oil” after Trump claimed that Modi agreed to zero it out as part of the Indo-US trade deal. Although Indian officials denied that their country made any such commitment, CNBC mentioned in their article that “India has imported 1.16 million barrel per day (mbd) of Russian oil so far in February, lower than an average intake of 1.71 million barrels per day in 2025.” That’s around a one-third reduction.

Reuters earlier reported that “January imports from Russia fell by 23.5% ​from December ​and by about a third compared to a year earlier”, around which time Bloomberg reported that Saudi imports are at a six-year high. Of note, Trump earlier claimed that India would replace some of its Russian oil imports with US-approved Venezuelan ones, and India just imported its first such shipment since late 2023. China is also reportedly buying Russia’s excess oil that’s now on market due to India’s import diversification.

Taken together, this data proves that India has indeed reduced its import of Russian oil, thus lending credence to the conclusion that its new perceptible alignment with the US’ interests in this respect is due to Trump’s threat to reimpose his punitive 25% tariff if it increases its import of Russian oil. He technically threatened to do so it if India keeps purchasing any Russian oil, but it’s not possible to zero these imports out right away, so his threat is widely considered as intending to deter any increases.

Therein lies the importance of the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, but it’s expected to only slightly complicate his foreign policy since there are other legal means to reimpose the annulled tariffs while few partners are expected to renege on the deals that they already agreed to. Trump’s post warning partners against backing out of their deals was interpreted by former Indian Ambassador to Russia Kanwal Sibal as aimed against India due to his use of the phrase “ripped off”, which he’s used against India before.

In Trump’s words, “Any country that wants to ‘play games’ with the ridiculous supreme court decision, especially those that have ‘Ripped Off’ the USA for years, and even decades, will be met with a much higher tariff, and worse, than that which they just recently agreed to. BUYER BEWARE!!!” Even if he’s unable to reimpose his punitive tariffs on India, he could still create trouble for it by resuming the US’ pre-trade deal pivot to Pakistan and its exploitation of post-coup Bangladesh as an anti-Indian proxy.

With the aforesaid Damocles’ swords hanging over its policymakers’ heads, India might therefore decide against increasing its import of Russian oil despite the nearly $30-dollar discount per barrel, which is its steepest since early 2023 according to Indian media. The reason is that these threatened costs, even if only geopolitical and no longer financial like before, arguably outweigh the benefits of defying Trump on this issue. That’s reasonable from the perspective of India’s national interests, which it always prioritizes.

If India keeps importing one-third less Russian oil compared to last year, let alone further decreases its share, then it would be best if Indian representatives candidly explained off the record reasons why to their Russian counterparts. That’s better than unintentionally insulting their intelligence by pretending that Trump’s explicitly threatened re-imposition of 25% punitive tariffs and the possibility of him resuming the US’ regional containment of India through Pakistan and Bangladesh played no role in this.