A major incident at sea could instantly spark a New Cold War crisis that brings the Baltic front of this competition to the center of global attention.
"Shadow fleet" is a propaganda term, which basically means "freighters carrying goods to and from trading partners we disapprove of, despite being in full compliance with UNCLOS".
There are a few obvious responses that could be taken:
1. Plenty of shipping lanes are controlled by BRICS aligned countries. The Strait of Malacca is enclosed by two BRICS nations (Indonesia and partner member Malaysia). The Suez Canal is controlled by full member Egypt. The Strait of Hormuz is enclosed by full members Iran and the UAE. If push comes to shove, these nations could hypothetically reciprocate and start seizing Western ships.
2. Escort such freighters with warships. Nobody is going to attack the Russian navy to seize these ships. If they are, then they've already accepted total war and the freighters are irrelevant. It makes seizure impossible.
Another definition of "shadow fleet" are ships that do not buy insurance from London brokers, but your definition is fine, as are your solutions. I can imagine a convoy of oil ships traversing the Baltics with a frigate escort.
If EU takes action, it will probably be Denmark, Norway and Sweden. As being reasonably far away from a marine infantry counter-attack by Russia. I don't believe Baltics would muster courage for such an action as being too near.
Still, Denmark should consider the possibility that USA seizes Greenland, because Denmark is interfering in US-Russian talks. Once right of conquest is given to Russia, the USA might avail of it too.
The premise that Russia needs income to fund the war in Ukraine represents an outdated and erroneous theory of money. Russian exports allow Russian imports. Russian energy is what drives war production and war fighting. Money is irrelevant as Russia can create as many rubles as she needs. What she cannot create are dollars, yuan, and rupees. Those she gets from oil and other exports.
Russia, like everyone else, except probably China, needs imports to create the machinery of war. Sure, Russia can create guns and artillery but it is the advanced weapons that require the electronics. Those are largely created in Asia, N. Am and Europe.
And Russia doesn't need Western currencies to purchase those. It can use other means such as rubles, gold, or other things. Currencies are easier, but not prohibitive.
Baltic navies are enough to intercept a single ship and interrogate and then intimidate. Russia will swallow the bitterness and comply for a couple of incidents. After two or three such incidents (already that many) Russia may choose to have armed escorts. Russia has more than enough missile corvettes to escort a dozen times. After that, if any country along the Baltic Sea intercepts Russian ships without a proper cause, it will cause a larger incident that none of them can last more than one round.
That said, I do think it is a national security issue to protect critical infra-structure, from water reservoir to highway bridges to power plants and optical fiber cables, etc.
"Shadow fleet" is a propaganda term, which basically means "freighters carrying goods to and from trading partners we disapprove of, despite being in full compliance with UNCLOS".
There are a few obvious responses that could be taken:
1. Plenty of shipping lanes are controlled by BRICS aligned countries. The Strait of Malacca is enclosed by two BRICS nations (Indonesia and partner member Malaysia). The Suez Canal is controlled by full member Egypt. The Strait of Hormuz is enclosed by full members Iran and the UAE. If push comes to shove, these nations could hypothetically reciprocate and start seizing Western ships.
2. Escort such freighters with warships. Nobody is going to attack the Russian navy to seize these ships. If they are, then they've already accepted total war and the freighters are irrelevant. It makes seizure impossible.
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The whole global secondary unilateral sanctions regime is the greatest threat to independence worldwide, bar none.
Another definition of "shadow fleet" are ships that do not buy insurance from London brokers, but your definition is fine, as are your solutions. I can imagine a convoy of oil ships traversing the Baltics with a frigate escort.
Just call them "Freedom of Navigation Operations".
If EU takes action, it will probably be Denmark, Norway and Sweden. As being reasonably far away from a marine infantry counter-attack by Russia. I don't believe Baltics would muster courage for such an action as being too near.
Still, Denmark should consider the possibility that USA seizes Greenland, because Denmark is interfering in US-Russian talks. Once right of conquest is given to Russia, the USA might avail of it too.
The premise that Russia needs income to fund the war in Ukraine represents an outdated and erroneous theory of money. Russian exports allow Russian imports. Russian energy is what drives war production and war fighting. Money is irrelevant as Russia can create as many rubles as she needs. What she cannot create are dollars, yuan, and rupees. Those she gets from oil and other exports.
Russia, like everyone else, except probably China, needs imports to create the machinery of war. Sure, Russia can create guns and artillery but it is the advanced weapons that require the electronics. Those are largely created in Asia, N. Am and Europe.
And Russia doesn't need Western currencies to purchase those. It can use other means such as rubles, gold, or other things. Currencies are easier, but not prohibitive.
Clear and informative, thank you!
Baltic navies are enough to intercept a single ship and interrogate and then intimidate. Russia will swallow the bitterness and comply for a couple of incidents. After two or three such incidents (already that many) Russia may choose to have armed escorts. Russia has more than enough missile corvettes to escort a dozen times. After that, if any country along the Baltic Sea intercepts Russian ships without a proper cause, it will cause a larger incident that none of them can last more than one round.
That said, I do think it is a national security issue to protect critical infra-structure, from water reservoir to highway bridges to power plants and optical fiber cables, etc.