I am really hoping that with the fall of the “traffic light” coalition in Germany that a new AfD government (maybe in coalition with the Free Democrats) will tear a new aperture in the body politick of NATO!
Germany as a country must switch direction first before the problems in EU and NATO can be corrected. Unfortunately, I think that change will come only after a long delay, if ever.
German hearts and minds, like all humans', work in a unique way. For example, it may seem Germany faced decades, if not centuries, of separation into East/West parts, then suddenly they were re-united, virtually overnight!
When I was in college in late 70s, a senior friend in the law school told me that when West Germany started writing their new constitution, they wrote it with east-west unification in their mind. I have a vague impression that they even named the law written then not as a constitution, but rather as something of a "basic law" or "basis law", with the term constitution reserved for the future unified Germany. But I am not sure if I remember what he said correctly. So I trust that the German political and intellectual elites considered unification a sacrosanct goal. However, to flip from a view manufactured and dominated by US neocons to something more Germanic-nationalistic may not be as easy.
"I think that change will come only after a long delay, if ever."
"...all humans', work in a unique way."
The point I wanted to make was that human development comes in spurts and bursts, and German history, particularly of the last century or two, is a great illustration of that. 'Never' is an awfully long time, and 'ever', as in 'if ever', isn't much quicker. Humans, being what they are, can have it turn on a dime, much to everyone's surprise. Don't get too hung up on, and hemmed in by, ideas of what the future will be like (forever).
AFD is only getting at most 20% and FDP will be out. Even if Linke and BSW join to get into parliament, they will get at most 10% of the votes. So not enough to counter the combined forces of Greens, SPD and CDU. The most likely coalition now is CDU and Greens, specifically to pursue the military options.
Anyway, the reason SPD wanted to push out elections to March 2025 was to wait and see if Trump can make some kind of cease-fire in Ukraine with sanctions relief before the coming elections. The reasoning is that the ongoing war helps AFD and hurts SPD.
Looking at Zelensky's words, or those of the USA government, they have been flickering left and right. If you look at their behavior, then you see they are not hesitant and not unable to make up their minds. Instead, their behavior says they have not changed their minds, at least not yet, only taking evasive actions. We should not expect Zelensky's intention to change: he knows his days are numbered and will not give up his current position to accelerate his demise. Biden admin people are not trying to preserve their reputation or Ukraine, but merely serving as white gloves for the US MIC and deep state. Even if the incoming POTUS was not Donald Trump, I don't see why they would behave differently.
I agree with Andrew Korybkos in substance, it will be interesting to see what happens after Trump’s inauguration. Will Trump be able to face the domestic problems with the attention that is required to simultaneously get the foreign policy issues for the US under control?
The USA has no friends they have interests, who said that? Henry Kissinger a US politician of the German-born republicans.
Trump will become US president at a time when the Western world is in turmoil. We had early elections in the UK, France and now in Germany, in France there are obviously new elections again and in South Korea a president is going crazy.
The much-vaunted NATO strengthening and closer union show themselves as what they are - wishful thinking.
The much-touted democratic forces, especially here in Germany, have long since left the democratic discourse and not only since 2022.
For me there are 2 camps, which are well known in the USA, but for example. Here in Germany according to my dialect the Merz - Blackrock camp and the Scholz - Waburg camp are.
Since Merz, as future German chancellor, can imagine a further cooperation with Habeck of the Greens, the line of complete collapse is not only for Germany but also for the EU. Because without the money from the biggest net payer it looks duster.
Now you should think that the German citizens understand what is coming to them, unfortunately this is not so. I think 20% woke up, maybe 30% are still wobbly and the rest are hunched over, just like in Heinrich Mann’s "Der Untertan". For readers who can do nothing with the book "Die Welle" https://www.thewavehome.com/ as available as a film is recommended.
The Ukraine scandal is merely to cover up the US domestic problems. Trump has only exploited this to win the election, and it will be decisive which side he actually belongs to. Some try to hide this with the hint that he belongs to the neoconservative camp. I don’t want to deny that, but in the end it says NOTHING.
Look at the mafia in the 1920s and then in the 1950s (or another period) What is noticeable is that the young want to replace the old patriarchs and do not shy away from directing the eye of justice on themselves.
Now we put the politics in place of the mafia and with the young we take the hedge funds around Blackrock and with the old the FED founders. The question will be who will win today. Right now it looks like the boys are in the lead, but is that so or the old will push the young exactly in the direction to restore the old status quo. Because the new player here the BRICS + is on the rise and could freely according to the motto if 2 argue, the 3rd is happy to race. It actually needs stability in its own ranks, but since the EU is hopelessly divided, even if something else is claimed, the EU is the brake shoe of Trump now coming to past, which he must send out in the medium term.
Because Trump also wants to maintain the supremacy of the USA, but for this he needs time for console anodizing. An Ukraine is as disturbing as the conflict in Gaza.
Trump’s agenda is not only for 4 years, because his Vice Vance should succeed him and then in the ideafall in the next 8 years complete it. In 2 years Trump needs successes, the democrats must not win any mid-term elections.
The political upheavals in Europe are homemade and not initiated by RF, China or anyone else as you want to know, they are in the sense of the US Neos. Because as Brzezińskis already made clear in his book The World’s Only Power: "THE USA, its VASSALS and tributary countries" is the context of US politics.
Restoring the pre-1939 borders would be a far more comprehensive settlement for partitioning the borderlands between Russia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania.
"Accordingly, even if Russia achieves its four maximalist aims of restoring Ukraine’s constitutional neutrality, demilitarizing that country, denazifying it, and having Kiev recognize the loss of its five former regions, Ukraine will still remain a de facto member of NATO if these security guarantees remain in force."
So, a neutral Ukraine repudiates all those agreements, reinserts in its Constitution that is neutral, but will still be "de facto" a NATO member? When de facto no military intercourse between UKR and NATO will take place (Russia will make sure of that). This "de facto" will only occur in NATO's leadership heads, and will be not "de facto" nor "de jure" but "de imago" type...
I think what's important is that Zelensky is now ready to negotiate, but we won't see anything like that until after January 20. It's obvious that the BS(Blinken-Sullivan) Administration just wants to escalate the war as much as possible before then in order to keep the fighting going and the profits flowing for as long as possible.
Hey! When you're making hundreds of millions a day, every day matters.
I’d add that while it’s true that the west wants to pin down Russia in Ukraine, the flip side of that coin is that the west will also be pined down. But what’s worse for the west is that they can’t keep this going much longer. They are getting militarily depleted and they’d need these resources elsewhere (wherever they want to focus).
"...it’ll have to resort to brinksmanship to try to change it."
Not at all: all it has to do is keep on doing what it's been doing for the past three years, which they've been getting better and better at, while NATO finds it increasingly difficult to keep up, lags behind and faces inevitably conclusive eventual failure. Couldn't be more simple, really. Why on Earth would Russia want to change anything; they're winning?!
And, as for the idea of Putin longing after some hero-Brinksman's role (with a capital 'B')... Remember the picture of him bare-chested on holiday, which was plastered all over the Western press for years and years, as a supposed illustration of the inner workings of his heart and mind? (There was the one with the fish, another of him on a horse, swimming, endless photoshopped versions with bears, etc.)... Look at it like that: reality check.
I am really hoping that with the fall of the “traffic light” coalition in Germany that a new AfD government (maybe in coalition with the Free Democrats) will tear a new aperture in the body politick of NATO!
Germany as a country must switch direction first before the problems in EU and NATO can be corrected. Unfortunately, I think that change will come only after a long delay, if ever.
German hearts and minds, like all humans', work in a unique way. For example, it may seem Germany faced decades, if not centuries, of separation into East/West parts, then suddenly they were re-united, virtually overnight!
When I was in college in late 70s, a senior friend in the law school told me that when West Germany started writing their new constitution, they wrote it with east-west unification in their mind. I have a vague impression that they even named the law written then not as a constitution, but rather as something of a "basic law" or "basis law", with the term constitution reserved for the future unified Germany. But I am not sure if I remember what he said correctly. So I trust that the German political and intellectual elites considered unification a sacrosanct goal. However, to flip from a view manufactured and dominated by US neocons to something more Germanic-nationalistic may not be as easy.
"I think that change will come only after a long delay, if ever."
"...all humans', work in a unique way."
The point I wanted to make was that human development comes in spurts and bursts, and German history, particularly of the last century or two, is a great illustration of that. 'Never' is an awfully long time, and 'ever', as in 'if ever', isn't much quicker. Humans, being what they are, can have it turn on a dime, much to everyone's surprise. Don't get too hung up on, and hemmed in by, ideas of what the future will be like (forever).
Recommend this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCqnOf9h23c&pp=ygUeY2FybG8gc2NobWlkIGdydW5kZ2VzZXR6IHJlZGUg Wenn man diesen Worten genau folgt, erkennt man das das heutige Grundgesetz ein Konstrukt vorrangig der USA ist. Zusätzlich sollte man das deutsche Bundesverfassungsgericht in seinem Grundsatzurteil zum Deutschen Reich beachten - https://www.deutscher-reichsanzeiger.de/justitia-deutschland/hilfe/ablage/BvGericht-und-Deutsches-Reich.pdf - Die BRD ist nicht "Rechtsnachfolger" des Deutschen Reiches, sondern als Staat identisch mit dem Staat "Deutsches Reich", - in bezug auf seine räumliche Ausdehnung allerdings "teilidentisch".
Hope I could help or at least give a new thought
AFD is only getting at most 20% and FDP will be out. Even if Linke and BSW join to get into parliament, they will get at most 10% of the votes. So not enough to counter the combined forces of Greens, SPD and CDU. The most likely coalition now is CDU and Greens, specifically to pursue the military options.
Anyway, the reason SPD wanted to push out elections to March 2025 was to wait and see if Trump can make some kind of cease-fire in Ukraine with sanctions relief before the coming elections. The reasoning is that the ongoing war helps AFD and hurts SPD.
I believe your hope is well-grounded.
Looking at Zelensky's words, or those of the USA government, they have been flickering left and right. If you look at their behavior, then you see they are not hesitant and not unable to make up their minds. Instead, their behavior says they have not changed their minds, at least not yet, only taking evasive actions. We should not expect Zelensky's intention to change: he knows his days are numbered and will not give up his current position to accelerate his demise. Biden admin people are not trying to preserve their reputation or Ukraine, but merely serving as white gloves for the US MIC and deep state. Even if the incoming POTUS was not Donald Trump, I don't see why they would behave differently.
Regardless of wording, Article 5 means what the US says it means and applies if, when, and to the extent that Washington says it does.
I agree with Andrew Korybkos in substance, it will be interesting to see what happens after Trump’s inauguration. Will Trump be able to face the domestic problems with the attention that is required to simultaneously get the foreign policy issues for the US under control?
The USA has no friends they have interests, who said that? Henry Kissinger a US politician of the German-born republicans.
Trump will become US president at a time when the Western world is in turmoil. We had early elections in the UK, France and now in Germany, in France there are obviously new elections again and in South Korea a president is going crazy.
The much-vaunted NATO strengthening and closer union show themselves as what they are - wishful thinking.
The much-touted democratic forces, especially here in Germany, have long since left the democratic discourse and not only since 2022.
For me there are 2 camps, which are well known in the USA, but for example. Here in Germany according to my dialect the Merz - Blackrock camp and the Scholz - Waburg camp are.
Since Merz, as future German chancellor, can imagine a further cooperation with Habeck of the Greens, the line of complete collapse is not only for Germany but also for the EU. Because without the money from the biggest net payer it looks duster.
Now you should think that the German citizens understand what is coming to them, unfortunately this is not so. I think 20% woke up, maybe 30% are still wobbly and the rest are hunched over, just like in Heinrich Mann’s "Der Untertan". For readers who can do nothing with the book "Die Welle" https://www.thewavehome.com/ as available as a film is recommended.
So much we here in Germany, either the French model https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/frank-chaos-parlament-stuerzt-macrons-regierung-675021b256698106582b934c or more recently the South Korean model https://www.bild.de/politik-e international/suedkorea-praesident-yoon-suk-yeol-shall-remain-in-office-675101996ee5aa76f749198d .
Ultimately, the Trump plays if he cleverly goes into his hands with his America first.
The German economy will go downhill under Merz and Habeck https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/maischberger-merz-schliesst-habeck-als-wirtschaftsminister-nicht-aus-6750c916b3c8d150a129a481 and Trump’s wish https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/trump-industrie-deutschland-100.html Trump: "I want German car manufacturers to become American" could come true faster than thought. At that time, the EU’s largest net contributor will fail and thus the EU will collapse. Let us not forget how the ECB bought out Greece’s debt. Does anyone think that e.g.: Poles no interest in the EU, they want money, not more and not less.
The Ukraine scandal is merely to cover up the US domestic problems. Trump has only exploited this to win the election, and it will be decisive which side he actually belongs to. Some try to hide this with the hint that he belongs to the neoconservative camp. I don’t want to deny that, but in the end it says NOTHING.
Look at the mafia in the 1920s and then in the 1950s (or another period) What is noticeable is that the young want to replace the old patriarchs and do not shy away from directing the eye of justice on themselves.
Now we put the politics in place of the mafia and with the young we take the hedge funds around Blackrock and with the old the FED founders. The question will be who will win today. Right now it looks like the boys are in the lead, but is that so or the old will push the young exactly in the direction to restore the old status quo. Because the new player here the BRICS + is on the rise and could freely according to the motto if 2 argue, the 3rd is happy to race. It actually needs stability in its own ranks, but since the EU is hopelessly divided, even if something else is claimed, the EU is the brake shoe of Trump now coming to past, which he must send out in the medium term.
Because Trump also wants to maintain the supremacy of the USA, but for this he needs time for console anodizing. An Ukraine is as disturbing as the conflict in Gaza.
Trump’s agenda is not only for 4 years, because his Vice Vance should succeed him and then in the ideafall in the next 8 years complete it. In 2 years Trump needs successes, the democrats must not win any mid-term elections.
The political upheavals in Europe are homemade and not initiated by RF, China or anyone else as you want to know, they are in the sense of the US Neos. Because as Brzezińskis already made clear in his book The World’s Only Power: "THE USA, its VASSALS and tributary countries" is the context of US politics.
Unfortunately this will be a near death outcome.
Restoring the pre-1939 borders would be a far more comprehensive settlement for partitioning the borderlands between Russia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania.
"Accordingly, even if Russia achieves its four maximalist aims of restoring Ukraine’s constitutional neutrality, demilitarizing that country, denazifying it, and having Kiev recognize the loss of its five former regions, Ukraine will still remain a de facto member of NATO if these security guarantees remain in force."
So, a neutral Ukraine repudiates all those agreements, reinserts in its Constitution that is neutral, but will still be "de facto" a NATO member? When de facto no military intercourse between UKR and NATO will take place (Russia will make sure of that). This "de facto" will only occur in NATO's leadership heads, and will be not "de facto" nor "de jure" but "de imago" type...
I think what's important is that Zelensky is now ready to negotiate, but we won't see anything like that until after January 20. It's obvious that the BS(Blinken-Sullivan) Administration just wants to escalate the war as much as possible before then in order to keep the fighting going and the profits flowing for as long as possible.
Hey! When you're making hundreds of millions a day, every day matters.
Good article.
I’d add that while it’s true that the west wants to pin down Russia in Ukraine, the flip side of that coin is that the west will also be pined down. But what’s worse for the west is that they can’t keep this going much longer. They are getting militarily depleted and they’d need these resources elsewhere (wherever they want to focus).
"...it’ll have to resort to brinksmanship to try to change it."
Not at all: all it has to do is keep on doing what it's been doing for the past three years, which they've been getting better and better at, while NATO finds it increasingly difficult to keep up, lags behind and faces inevitably conclusive eventual failure. Couldn't be more simple, really. Why on Earth would Russia want to change anything; they're winning?!
And, as for the idea of Putin longing after some hero-Brinksman's role (with a capital 'B')... Remember the picture of him bare-chested on holiday, which was plastered all over the Western press for years and years, as a supposed illustration of the inner workings of his heart and mind? (There was the one with the fish, another of him on a horse, swimming, endless photoshopped versions with bears, etc.)... Look at it like that: reality check.