Seems to me the primary path of Western escalation is against Russia's ability to move exports on the high seas and derive revenue from them. Russia lacks the naval capacity and power projection capability in general to protect both its flagged ships and its shadow tanker fleet. We already see highly aggressive actions taking place--the …
Seems to me the primary path of Western escalation is against Russia's ability to move exports on the high seas and derive revenue from them. Russia lacks the naval capacity and power projection capability in general to protect both its flagged ships and its shadow tanker fleet. We already see highly aggressive actions taking place--the sinking of the Russian cargo ship near Gibraltar and the bait-and-switch detention of the shadow tanker by Finland.
Very true. That is the traditional strength and tactics for marine power. Russia will have to bear with that and see if the pipelines can compensate. Buyers may be forced to find their shipping. And finally Russia may choose naval escort, an expensive and risky move. China wants to suppress the price of Siberian gas at this juncture and has already gained a proper response from Russia, I think. In any case, no empire will choose to go down voluntarily. The British had an option to hijack the USA, but the USA now is unable and unwilling to use that trick. Russians want to keep their chins high, inevitably they have to stick their necks out to receive some hits from blunt instruments. Unless the American Deep State chose to morph into a multi-polar posture, we are only to have a 4-year cool-down at most.
(1) there was no shadow. The West knows exactly which ship works for which boss, carrying what, and going where. (2) Going through the Arctic region can avoid European clowning somewhat, but the extra cost is also high. And only works for half the year. (3) Eventually buyers have to choose sides. Most will choose the West and the West has to print more to keep the party going until one day when something physical runs short or when USD loses too much purchase power. (4) Russia + China + Iran are barely ready to fight for their independence, success is possible but far from guaranteed.
Seems to me the primary path of Western escalation is against Russia's ability to move exports on the high seas and derive revenue from them. Russia lacks the naval capacity and power projection capability in general to protect both its flagged ships and its shadow tanker fleet. We already see highly aggressive actions taking place--the sinking of the Russian cargo ship near Gibraltar and the bait-and-switch detention of the shadow tanker by Finland.
Very true. That is the traditional strength and tactics for marine power. Russia will have to bear with that and see if the pipelines can compensate. Buyers may be forced to find their shipping. And finally Russia may choose naval escort, an expensive and risky move. China wants to suppress the price of Siberian gas at this juncture and has already gained a proper response from Russia, I think. In any case, no empire will choose to go down voluntarily. The British had an option to hijack the USA, but the USA now is unable and unwilling to use that trick. Russians want to keep their chins high, inevitably they have to stick their necks out to receive some hits from blunt instruments. Unless the American Deep State chose to morph into a multi-polar posture, we are only to have a 4-year cool-down at most.
Yes, they can escort their flagged ships. But escorting shadow tankers makes them something other than "shadow."
(1) there was no shadow. The West knows exactly which ship works for which boss, carrying what, and going where. (2) Going through the Arctic region can avoid European clowning somewhat, but the extra cost is also high. And only works for half the year. (3) Eventually buyers have to choose sides. Most will choose the West and the West has to print more to keep the party going until one day when something physical runs short or when USD loses too much purchase power. (4) Russia + China + Iran are barely ready to fight for their independence, success is possible but far from guaranteed.