Trump’s known for his capriciousness, however, so it might be that he either didn’t mean to hint at anything at all in his latest remarks about Russia or he might unexpectedly change his mind about the compromises that he considers to be acceptable for each party during his upcoming call with Putin.
I'm wondering what military experts like Andrei Martyanov, Douglas MacGregor, and Scott Ritter are thinking about this hugely inflated quote: "He’s grinding it out. Most people thought it would last about one week and now you’re into three years. It is not making him look good. We have numbers that almost a million Russian soldiers have been killed. About 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers are killed. Russia’s bigger, they have more soldiers to lose but that’s no way to run a country.” - Right, and Putin's popularity rating is over 80%.
The above three military experts put the kill ratio at something like 8-10 to 1 in favor of Russia. They estimate that Ukraine has lost over 1 million KIA and more wounded for life. On top of that, some 6 million Ukrainians have fled, and thousands have either surrendered or deserted.
Escalate to deescalate is sure to lead to WWIII. Don't think the new "peace president" wants that, but Russia is ready for it and anything else the US wants to throw at it.
Face it, Russia has left no wriggle room for compromise with its three stated goals for this SMO: 1) demilitarization of Ukraine...meaning no mercenaries, no other armed troops there. 2) Denazification...from everywhere in the government at all levels, a new constitution, and then a very long re-education program. 3) A completely neutral Ukraine with never NATO membership. And then there's a 4th not so very subtle belief that "we are all Slavs and brothers," meaning what????
My own thinking is that Trump is in a hole with this inherited war he never liked, and he has to get out of as he has promised or he loses face. Putin will help Trump in other ways to get out of trouble, like Putin did with Obama over the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria.
Trump himself doesn't know how long it will take to end this conflict. The longer it takes, the more he has to lose. He sure isn't going to end on his first day, or week, or month in office.
Biden is weak, stupid (brain-damaged) and (consequently) easily manipulated.
Trump is stupid (his intellect is very narrowly pitched) and (consequently) easily manipulated. As for "weak," he is very much a dominance-hierarchy kind of guy. He sucks up and sh*ts down, as they say. That's not exactly "weakness" in its essential sense, but it is significant.
The real question is, if he is, indeed, "manipulable," who will be doing the manipulating?
In my view what we are already seeing under Biden and will see much more of under Trump is the Israelization of US foreign/military policy, that is, a penchant for aggressive opportunism and a relentless inclination to "go on the offensive" derived from the Jewish/Israeli self-image as a "people of action" and, ironically, from Israel's systematic study of Prussian-German military and strategic doctrine which itself stems from German romanticist philosophizing and Prussia-Germany's geographic location in a cockpit between multiple enemies--analogous, as the Israelis see it, to their position in the Middle East.
Sucking up (to goy authority) and sh*tting down on the immiserated peasantry has been a characteristic of European Jewry and its offshoots for many centuries.
There is also the related perception in US policy circles that only an aggressive "short game" can possibly derail the long games that its opponents--especially China--are playing.
We already see US-backed escalation against Russian/shadow shipping in the Med and Baltic. Trump wants a deal. And Putin, based on the feed coming from his, um, mouthpieces, evidently wants one too. But the question is still how much common ground there is since neither can afford to look like the guy who lost. So yeah, there is an escalation scenario, though Russia-NATO war still seems unlikely to me.
In that case, we don't have to worry about escalation and WW I since both Trump and Putin want a "deal." Who will manipulate Trump in some other direction seems to be the relevant question.
This war would be over tomorrow if Putin takes the territory and Ukraine gets a security guarantee from NATO. But this was never about territory and it was always about Ukraine drifting away from Russia and towards the West. And remember, the West was fine sending Russia billions every year for natural gas…now Europe buys more expensive natural gas from America and Qatar.
Russia .wants a deal, but Trump can easily be manipulated. Tell him he looks "tough", promise him opportunities for looting if he takes a harder line, call him"
So, in your view, does Putin have any cards left to play if the two find it impossible to both come out of a negotiated peace looking like winners and someone manipulates Trump into escalation?
Not really. Russian dithering has left them cornered with nobody afraid of them,.and there is little Russia can do short of nuclear strike that will so much as inconvenience the decisionmakers in the West.
Trump should stop reading or listening to Ukrainian intelligence reports nothing could be further from the truth. More than 1 million dead Ukrainian forces near 2 million injured that’s why Ukraine is dragging people off the streets from their home or workplaces Russia has suffered losses around 80,000 dead 3-400,000 injured but many of those return to the battlefield because of the Russian medical fast extraction from the battlefield known as the golden hour to first class medical treatment. Ukraines economy is dead the Russian economy is growing faster than the USA or the European economy including Uk Canada Japan so Trump does not have the upper hand actually his hand is very weak
" but many of those return to the battlefield because of the Russian medical fast extraction from the battlefield known as the golden hour to first class medical treatment. "
And you know this how ? Or are you just making shit up ? I invite you to watch some combat footage from Ukraine and observe Russian medical "evacuations".
I guess it is very difficult to guess or predict Trump's action strategy. After all, most transaction-oriented people don't have long vision. They tend to react, although they do try to solve a problem in a large enough chunk to avoid short-term reoccurrence of the same problem. Personally, I think it is best that battleground realities leave him no alternatives. Unless he wants nuclear WW3, the USA does not have much to continue a fight with conventional arms at the current attrition rate. Printing more dollar bills cannot buy very much in weapons, and most of the politicians who can be corrupted by USD are rotten to the bones already.
Seems to me the primary path of Western escalation is against Russia's ability to move exports on the high seas and derive revenue from them. Russia lacks the naval capacity and power projection capability in general to protect both its flagged ships and its shadow tanker fleet. We already see highly aggressive actions taking place--the sinking of the Russian cargo ship near Gibraltar and the bait-and-switch detention of the shadow tanker by Finland.
Very true. That is the traditional strength and tactics for marine power. Russia will have to bear with that and see if the pipelines can compensate. Buyers may be forced to find their shipping. And finally Russia may choose naval escort, an expensive and risky move. China wants to suppress the price of Siberian gas at this juncture and has already gained a proper response from Russia, I think. In any case, no empire will choose to go down voluntarily. The British had an option to hijack the USA, but the USA now is unable and unwilling to use that trick. Russians want to keep their chins high, inevitably they have to stick their necks out to receive some hits from blunt instruments. Unless the American Deep State chose to morph into a multi-polar posture, we are only to have a 4-year cool-down at most.
(1) there was no shadow. The West knows exactly which ship works for which boss, carrying what, and going where. (2) Going through the Arctic region can avoid European clowning somewhat, but the extra cost is also high. And only works for half the year. (3) Eventually buyers have to choose sides. Most will choose the West and the West has to print more to keep the party going until one day when something physical runs short or when USD loses too much purchase power. (4) Russia + China + Iran are barely ready to fight for their independence, success is possible but far from guaranteed.
" We have numbers that almost a million Russian soldiers have been killed. About 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers are killed. Russia’s bigger, they have more soldiers to lose but that’s no way to run a country.”
I'm sure US intelligence has some idea of Russian casualties, and lets assume they are exaggerating them by 50%. 500,000 Russian dead is still a slaughter.
Zelensky already said he would agree to a ceasefire for American security agreement protecting all of Ukraine under his control. So he will cede the territory Putin currently controls. But this war was never about territory. Ukraine wants to be part of the West and that means being in the EU and NATO. Putin won’t accept Ukraine in NATO and so the territory isn’t enough for Putin to agree to a ceasefire.
Here’s Putin’s problem that Trump voters don’t understand but Trump very clearly understands—there is no downside to America helping Ukraine. America is the biggest oil and gas producer and so the high prices of 2022 actually made America stronger because the American oil and gas sector made windfall profits only a little while after Covid lockdowns bankrupted a record amount of companies in the industry. The inflation is over in America and the money billions we are spending on Ukraine is nothing compared to the trillions we have spent preparing for a war with Russia and the trillions we would spend going forward. So we are actually saving money helping Ukraine! So as long as Ukraine is willing to fight we can help them.
Bottom line—Putin has lost this war because it was never about territory and Ukrainians now hate Putin and so now he could never win their hearts and minds after all of the death and destruction. So if Putin were smart he would pretend getting the territory was his goal and cut a deal with Trump and just allow Ukraine to have a pathway to NATO over 10 years and hope something changes over the next 10 years in Russia’s favor.
I'm wondering what military experts like Andrei Martyanov, Douglas MacGregor, and Scott Ritter are thinking about this hugely inflated quote: "He’s grinding it out. Most people thought it would last about one week and now you’re into three years. It is not making him look good. We have numbers that almost a million Russian soldiers have been killed. About 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers are killed. Russia’s bigger, they have more soldiers to lose but that’s no way to run a country.” - Right, and Putin's popularity rating is over 80%.
The above three military experts put the kill ratio at something like 8-10 to 1 in favor of Russia. They estimate that Ukraine has lost over 1 million KIA and more wounded for life. On top of that, some 6 million Ukrainians have fled, and thousands have either surrendered or deserted.
Escalate to deescalate is sure to lead to WWIII. Don't think the new "peace president" wants that, but Russia is ready for it and anything else the US wants to throw at it.
Face it, Russia has left no wriggle room for compromise with its three stated goals for this SMO: 1) demilitarization of Ukraine...meaning no mercenaries, no other armed troops there. 2) Denazification...from everywhere in the government at all levels, a new constitution, and then a very long re-education program. 3) A completely neutral Ukraine with never NATO membership. And then there's a 4th not so very subtle belief that "we are all Slavs and brothers," meaning what????
My own thinking is that Trump is in a hole with this inherited war he never liked, and he has to get out of as he has promised or he loses face. Putin will help Trump in other ways to get out of trouble, like Putin did with Obama over the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria.
Trump himself doesn't know how long it will take to end this conflict. The longer it takes, the more he has to lose. He sure isn't going to end on his first day, or week, or month in office.
I agree with your numbers.
The 700K vs. 1,000K is largely laughable.
Just my opinion...
Those are casualties and for some reason during this entire conflict people have conflated casualties with deaths.
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Once he starts down the escalation road, he won't be able to reverse course.
This is how WWI started.
Putin is the one that screwed up. He underestimated the American fracking industry and you never underestimate your opponent!
Biden is weak, stupid (brain-damaged) and (consequently) easily manipulated.
Trump is stupid (his intellect is very narrowly pitched) and (consequently) easily manipulated. As for "weak," he is very much a dominance-hierarchy kind of guy. He sucks up and sh*ts down, as they say. That's not exactly "weakness" in its essential sense, but it is significant.
The real question is, if he is, indeed, "manipulable," who will be doing the manipulating?
In my view what we are already seeing under Biden and will see much more of under Trump is the Israelization of US foreign/military policy, that is, a penchant for aggressive opportunism and a relentless inclination to "go on the offensive" derived from the Jewish/Israeli self-image as a "people of action" and, ironically, from Israel's systematic study of Prussian-German military and strategic doctrine which itself stems from German romanticist philosophizing and Prussia-Germany's geographic location in a cockpit between multiple enemies--analogous, as the Israelis see it, to their position in the Middle East.
Sucking up (to goy authority) and sh*tting down on the immiserated peasantry has been a characteristic of European Jewry and its offshoots for many centuries.
There is also the related perception in US policy circles that only an aggressive "short game" can possibly derail the long games that its opponents--especially China--are playing.
We already see US-backed escalation against Russian/shadow shipping in the Med and Baltic. Trump wants a deal. And Putin, based on the feed coming from his, um, mouthpieces, evidently wants one too. But the question is still how much common ground there is since neither can afford to look like the guy who lost. So yeah, there is an escalation scenario, though Russia-NATO war still seems unlikely to me.
It has been obvious from the outset of the war that Russia does not want this war and that wants a deal.
That is as sure an invitation for abuse as can be imagined.
In that case, we don't have to worry about escalation and WW I since both Trump and Putin want a "deal." Who will manipulate Trump in some other direction seems to be the relevant question.
This war would be over tomorrow if Putin takes the territory and Ukraine gets a security guarantee from NATO. But this was never about territory and it was always about Ukraine drifting away from Russia and towards the West. And remember, the West was fine sending Russia billions every year for natural gas…now Europe buys more expensive natural gas from America and Qatar.
Russia .wants a deal, but Trump can easily be manipulated. Tell him he looks "tough", promise him opportunities for looting if he takes a harder line, call him"
"Putin puppet!" If he doesn't.
He'll fold.
So, in your view, does Putin have any cards left to play if the two find it impossible to both come out of a negotiated peace looking like winners and someone manipulates Trump into escalation?
Not really. Russian dithering has left them cornered with nobody afraid of them,.and there is little Russia can do short of nuclear strike that will so much as inconvenience the decisionmakers in the West.
From the London point of view, there has to be a war somewhere. If not between US and Russia, then somewhere else.
Trump should stop reading or listening to Ukrainian intelligence reports nothing could be further from the truth. More than 1 million dead Ukrainian forces near 2 million injured that’s why Ukraine is dragging people off the streets from their home or workplaces Russia has suffered losses around 80,000 dead 3-400,000 injured but many of those return to the battlefield because of the Russian medical fast extraction from the battlefield known as the golden hour to first class medical treatment. Ukraines economy is dead the Russian economy is growing faster than the USA or the European economy including Uk Canada Japan so Trump does not have the upper hand actually his hand is very weak
" but many of those return to the battlefield because of the Russian medical fast extraction from the battlefield known as the golden hour to first class medical treatment. "
And you know this how ? Or are you just making shit up ? I invite you to watch some combat footage from Ukraine and observe Russian medical "evacuations".
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/?rdt=62777
I guess it is very difficult to guess or predict Trump's action strategy. After all, most transaction-oriented people don't have long vision. They tend to react, although they do try to solve a problem in a large enough chunk to avoid short-term reoccurrence of the same problem. Personally, I think it is best that battleground realities leave him no alternatives. Unless he wants nuclear WW3, the USA does not have much to continue a fight with conventional arms at the current attrition rate. Printing more dollar bills cannot buy very much in weapons, and most of the politicians who can be corrupted by USD are rotten to the bones already.
Seems to me the primary path of Western escalation is against Russia's ability to move exports on the high seas and derive revenue from them. Russia lacks the naval capacity and power projection capability in general to protect both its flagged ships and its shadow tanker fleet. We already see highly aggressive actions taking place--the sinking of the Russian cargo ship near Gibraltar and the bait-and-switch detention of the shadow tanker by Finland.
Very true. That is the traditional strength and tactics for marine power. Russia will have to bear with that and see if the pipelines can compensate. Buyers may be forced to find their shipping. And finally Russia may choose naval escort, an expensive and risky move. China wants to suppress the price of Siberian gas at this juncture and has already gained a proper response from Russia, I think. In any case, no empire will choose to go down voluntarily. The British had an option to hijack the USA, but the USA now is unable and unwilling to use that trick. Russians want to keep their chins high, inevitably they have to stick their necks out to receive some hits from blunt instruments. Unless the American Deep State chose to morph into a multi-polar posture, we are only to have a 4-year cool-down at most.
Yes, they can escort their flagged ships. But escorting shadow tankers makes them something other than "shadow."
(1) there was no shadow. The West knows exactly which ship works for which boss, carrying what, and going where. (2) Going through the Arctic region can avoid European clowning somewhat, but the extra cost is also high. And only works for half the year. (3) Eventually buyers have to choose sides. Most will choose the West and the West has to print more to keep the party going until one day when something physical runs short or when USD loses too much purchase power. (4) Russia + China + Iran are barely ready to fight for their independence, success is possible but far from guaranteed.
" We have numbers that almost a million Russian soldiers have been killed. About 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers are killed. Russia’s bigger, they have more soldiers to lose but that’s no way to run a country.”
I'm sure US intelligence has some idea of Russian casualties, and lets assume they are exaggerating them by 50%. 500,000 Russian dead is still a slaughter.
Zelensky already said he would agree to a ceasefire for American security agreement protecting all of Ukraine under his control. So he will cede the territory Putin currently controls. But this war was never about territory. Ukraine wants to be part of the West and that means being in the EU and NATO. Putin won’t accept Ukraine in NATO and so the territory isn’t enough for Putin to agree to a ceasefire.
Here’s Putin’s problem that Trump voters don’t understand but Trump very clearly understands—there is no downside to America helping Ukraine. America is the biggest oil and gas producer and so the high prices of 2022 actually made America stronger because the American oil and gas sector made windfall profits only a little while after Covid lockdowns bankrupted a record amount of companies in the industry. The inflation is over in America and the money billions we are spending on Ukraine is nothing compared to the trillions we have spent preparing for a war with Russia and the trillions we would spend going forward. So we are actually saving money helping Ukraine! So as long as Ukraine is willing to fight we can help them.
Bottom line—Putin has lost this war because it was never about territory and Ukrainians now hate Putin and so now he could never win their hearts and minds after all of the death and destruction. So if Putin were smart he would pretend getting the territory was his goal and cut a deal with Trump and just allow Ukraine to have a pathway to NATO over 10 years and hope something changes over the next 10 years in Russia’s favor.