Israel’s intelligence superiority and the Resistance Axis’ reluctance to escalate are responsible for why the self-professed Jewish State is indisputably winning the latest war with Lebanon.
Norman Finkelstein has an interesting take on this, from this interview: "Prof. Norman Finkelstein: An Israeli Ground War Against Hezbollah Would Be A 'Catastrophe'"
..EXCERPT..
Israel is hoping it can knock out Lebanon by air. The Hezbollah strategy is perfectly obvious: they will keep shooting rockets at Israel; however, they're not going to let out a huge blitz. Every time Israel declares victory over Hezbollah, they will fire more rockets. Israel will then inflict more aerial destruction, declare victory, and then Hezbollah will fire more rockets in order to make the situation politically untenable for Israel. They'll have to launch a ground invasion. Now, if you listen to Nasrallah's last speech, he literally said, "Please invade, please invade. We welcome the invasion," which is true. Whether it's 100,000 or 75,000, the Party of God longs for, yearns for that invasion so they can finally settle the score with that satanic state, man to man, in hand-to-hand combat.
The Israelis dread the land war. Hezbollah longs for it, and the only way it can force the land war is to keep its rockets and missiles in reserve and deny Netanyahu the chance to declare victory. That's what happened in 2006. Israel amassed the troops on its border with Lebanon, and it wasn't until 72 hours before the 33-day war was over that Israeli troops entered Lebanon. Condoleezza Rice had already gotten a UN resolution through to end the war because Israel begged the US: "Get that resolution, get that resolution because we don't want the land invasion; it will be a disaster." And, speaking as a complete military know-nothing, speaking as a complete military ignoramus, I would say with 100% certainty, if it comes to pass, it will be a catastrophe for the state of Israel because those people have no fear, no dread of giving their lives to finally settling the score with that monstrous state that has inflicted so much death, destruction, agony, and anguish with all the haughtiness and arrogance of the Übermensch.
...
So the question is, how much death and destruction will Israel inflict from the air, and secondly, whether they will be forced to act because Hezbollah will deny Prime Minister Netanyahu the ability to declare victory. I should note that in the 2006 war, Hezbollah, on the very last day—on the 33rd day—fired more missiles and rockets than on any other day in that 33-day war. I think—correct me if I'm wrong—it was 10,000. Hezbollah wanted to transmit the message: "You lost." And I think they're going to do the same thing this time. They will hold back—that's my guess.
One can drag one's military underground, but one cannot drag its population underground. This is a weak spot for all these pseudo-state actors. However, the human intelligence and counter intelligence failure, and perhaps signal intelligence failure as well, are defects that have to be fixed before folks against Israel can seriously think of a military confrontation.
It is a weak spot for Israel too, since wantonly killing civilians under the pretext that they harbour terrorists is not flying any longer. And now Israel is hitting UN outposts, to have them remove the troops to not stand witness... Europeans are all outraged, except Germany of course, who cannot miss doing or backing a genocide, if it can.
Andrew, what are you talking about. You've been way off base on some of your previous analysis, but It's been interesting to read for at least an alternate take. This analysis though is in the realm of ridiculous.
Just because one side has no moral standing and is willing to commit war crimes and conduct genocide, it doesn't mean that they are winning the war. Also, as Vietnam showed us, one side can win almost every battle but still lose the war.
In short, just because Israel is killing more people doesn't make them the winner.
Also, the pager terror attack mainly killed and injured civilians, many of them healthcare workers, not the Hezbollah command structure. You couldn't even get this right. Not good, brother.
Andrew greatly oversimplifies Hezbollah’s situation and misunderstands how resilient and adaptable these organizations are, which is surprising, given his usual penchant for overly complicated frameworks that rarely map to reality.
Anyone familiar with the region’s history knows that Hezbollah, along with other Shia paramilitary groups like the IRGC, has a deeply ingrained culture of martyrdom. This isn’t just rhetoric—it’s a core part of their operational strategy. The assassination of figures like Abbas al-Musawi in 1992 didn’t lead to Hezbollah’s collapse, and General Qasem Soleimani’s death didn’t dismantle the IRGC. In fact, both groups grew stronger, using martyrdom to fuel their cause and recruit new members. Killing Nasrallah—or any other leader—won’t break Hezbollah, as they’ve shown time and again they can replace leadership and continue operations with minimal disruption.
Andrew also downplays Hezbollah’s well-established continuity plans. These organizations are specifically designed to withstand leadership decapitations, expecting and planning for such moves. Hezbollah didn’t falter in the 1990s when it was less organized; today, it’s far more sophisticated and well-equipped.
Given Hezbollah’s long history of surviving and growing stronger despite military and political efforts to dismantle them, claims of a decisive Israeli victory are overstated. Hezbollah has faced significant setbacks before and emerged more resilient, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t do so again.
While what you say makes sense, in principle, it does not match reality. What we have seen over the past 1 months is a lot of rhetoric about "red line", "heavy price as vengeance", and more.
In reality nothing has changed other than ZioNaziland having got ever bolder and managing to kill some key personnel in Iran and Lebanon. ZioNaziland now laughs at the rhetoric, although its own rhetoric belies its weakness and cowardice.
It’s exactly this kind of misguided thinking that has led the West to repeatedly lose conflicts against so-called "rag heads" and "goat herders." I suggest researching the concept of "Insurgent Math" put forward by General Stanley McChrystal.
Simplistic comments like "let them be martyrs" reveal a fundamental misunderstanding of the enemy. Martyrdom isn’t just accepted in groups like Hezbollah or the IRGC—it’s celebrated, fueling their cause, rallying new recruits, and strengthening their resolve. Killing their leaders doesn’t weaken them; history shows that it often makes them stronger.
People from cultures like Israel, where fear of death is deeply embedded in both society and its military philosophy, struggle greatly to grasp this. Not every culture has the same paralyzing fear of death they have. For many, especially in organizations built around martyrdom, death is seen as honorable and even necessary for their cause. Simply removing leaders won’t end these conflicts because groups like Hezbollah are designed to survive and adapt in the face of such losses.
If all of Israel’s leaders were killed, it might indeed end the war for them—because they are total cowards—but for groups like Hezbollah, that’s exactly what they’ve prepared for.
Israel has no problem with mass extermination on a hitlerian scale.
Edit: I shoulda added, that I am abundantly aware of the Shia culture of martyrdom, of Imam Hossein and Karbala, as well as how killing insurgents creates insurgents.
I agree Israel has genocidal intent, but the idea that they could "completely eradicate" their enemies is logistically implausible, even with sustained military operations.
Take the combined populations of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran—around 169.5 million people. Even assuming a death rate of 37,697 civilians per month (based on the reasonable assumption that the actual Palestinian death toll is 10 times the reported figure of 41,460 over 11 months), it would still take over 374 years to eliminate these populations. That's years, not months. This doesn’t even factor in birth rates, migration, or increased resistance.
Focusing solely on the Shia populations of those areas—about 119 million people—would still take 262 years at a rate of 37,697 civilian deaths per month.
Executing mass extermination on this scale would require resources beyond what any military could sustain. It would demand continuous success, near-perfect precision, and the suppression of both immediate resistance and long-term insurgencies that would inevitably arise. Moreover, international pressures and external powers would impose serious limits on such an operation's feasibility.
Even at an extreme death rate, the logistics make total eradication of their enemies impossible for Israel.
This is why they rely on terror bombing—not to wipe out entire populations, but to intimidate and suppress resistance, destabilizing the region and subduing its people. They understand the limits of full-scale extermination, so their strategy focuses on control and fear rather than outright destruction.
While on the surface not important, Israel is also on the docks for war crimes and genocide and apartheid in the highest courts of justice, both as a state and as individuals. On the long run, when sentencing comes, this will matter a lot...
It would be interesting to know how this cultural “fear of death” arose in their nation. Is it a cultural belief that existed when they were in the diaspora, that they brought with them when the current entity was founded in 1948?
Yep, I was a believer in the might of Hezbollah. Not because I knew, had researched it or something, but just because I believed our alt media gurus. The 'clerisy' of alt media.
More and more I realise that they are little better than the MSM.
I slowly became aware of how many simply drone the same message every time they are interviewed. Then how many of them were talking sheer rubbish off the cuff in their 'analysis' of battlefield and such.
Then how many based their prognostications on published 'facts' - a childish error one struggles to believe they could have made.
And so on.
I am down to checking a couple of TG channels every morning now and that's about it. On a daily basis. When he writes I check John Helmer.
That's it. There really, really is nothing.
I've long said it now and I'm saying it stronger and stronger: those at the top are lunatics, the mass at the bottom are asleep, those we might hope/expect some help, information and direction from: the self styled clerisy, they give nothing.
So I hold them to be at major fault.
The half million dead in Ukraine are dead not because of the lunatics in Kiev and Washington and not because of the zombie apathy of the masses but because of the pathetic behaviour of the clerisy.
The same with Palestine.
The same everywhere.
We desperately need a real clerisy with thinking sensible caring and dynamic people who can illuminate the way and spread truth.
When was the last time you ever got any suggested direction from anyone anywhere in the clerisy?
They still universally refer to it as 'helping Ukraine' etc. when - surely I don't need to point it out ? - helping a civil war perpetuate never helps the nation. Half a million dead didn't get helped did they?
The "5D Chess" belief you cite seems to be a common theme in so much of the reporting not just in this area but on all the modern conflicts. But I think the fact of the matter is that around the world, the quality of the leadership class is plummeting, and very few are clever enough to be capable of that kind of thinking. If it looks like a mistake or failure, it probably IS.
Today has brought confirmation of Nasrallah's death.
I don't really care for either side in this war. If I "side" with anyone, I side with the countless civilians bombed, maimed, injured, and disabled if they live.
I think we see that the "Resistance" has for long never planned any kind of real war as we study or think of war defined through history where one side militarily breaks another.
The fact is this: to get Nasrallah, Israel has killed, minimally, 700 Lebanese. Just as they did/do in Gaza. Lavender, their AI software, targets (supposedly) up to 300 extraneous deaths as morally justified to kill one senior Hamas or Hezbollah leader.
Israel isn't defending itself. Israel's campaign reveals the Rothschild's true interest (remember who first bought the land and who lobbied UK to accede the land to them via Balfour): the establishment of a techno state in Israel which dismantles the tribal structure (pettiness, hatreds, etc.) in the Middle East so that their transnationals (Halliburton et al.) can build a vast oil/gas infrastructure to support AI facilities (which require enormous electrical output) worldwide. Notice how many small snippets of information have been dropped recently about so-and-so needing more infrastructure (electricity) for their "AI projects"?
If the Resistance truly wanted victory, they would walk several suicide bombers into Tel Aviv with tactical nuclear weapons. Tactical nukes are cold fission and produce little (no atomic signature) of the atomic blasts seen in history films, but they destroy quite effectively.
I can only surmise, at this point, that the entire "war" is a game because the "Resistance" seems only intent on vague political and military objectives which slaughter civilians.
Col. MacGregor interviewed by Judge Napolitano says categorically that the U.S. does not have the capability to put soldiers on the ground. He reiterates that the U.S. has no surge capacity to step up preparations for a true war such as WWII...which is why they fritter and pick here and there at warfare (my conclusion). The U.S. lacks personnel and missile production capacity. He points out that we don't have the "unified military command structure" to facilitate fighting either in Ukraine or Israel.
I don't think Israel does either because they're so closely allied with U.S.' interests and plans. They have enormously massive numbers of weapons which they use with impunity throughout the Middle East. They can only fight through superior sophisticated weaponry; they, too, cannot support troops on the ground. They're weak minded and spoiled which predominates their military. I wouldn't take one of their soldiers into battle with me.
The "Resistance" can do what they like, but unless their tactics change dramatically, their future is The Greater Middle East Plan. They will be absorbed with the Sunni countries, like Saudi Arabia, already onboard WEF-U.S.-Israel led programs, reaping huge wealth and rewards for compliance...but they will comply or die. Gaza is an extremely effective example of what they'll do.
They will be, then, the techno slaves of states like Israel who will expand to the Jordan River and into Syria-Jordan while building pipelines supplying Europe and points West. They also want access to the Persian Gulf through Iraq...which is why the U.S. is STILL in Iraq although "promising" to leave recently. Their "leaving" means leaving U.S. military "advisors" in Iraq, which, as those of us older and wiser know, means they can reconstitute their forces within weeks in such a country.
It all boils down to the trades routes and shipping corridors and the race for who will succeed and gain control of the Middle East. It was written early on this was the USA's greatest worry that would Russia would bring peace to the Middle East which I personally believe is why they are deliberately trying to confine Putin in order to prevent him from doing so. The intentional escalation in Ukraine at the exact same time you're witnessing the escalation in the Middle East.
This is all about multipolarity and the end of the US hegemony. For now we no longer know who is on whose side and all of this has been nothing but political posturing. Hell might freeze over before Iran makes good on it's promise to retaliate against Israel for the assassinations.
Exactly correct, imo. What many people don't realize is that "green energy" and "shortage of oil" are simply policies for the masses. The true "globalist" doesn't give a damn about the environment, for he, above all others, is responsible for the deplorable state of the planet right now. Their transnational corporations or "shareholders," as they've been rebranded, are the polluters and strippers of assets...not Joe Schmoe living in Brooklyn, U.S.A. This isn't my wild-eyed "conspiracy-theorist" opinion. See https://www.bitchute.com/video/osFASxP9DzF0/.
The globalists want a high-tech state governed by themselves in an organization controlling the entire planet. Again, we need look no further than UN's Agendas 2030, 2040, or whatever along with supporting documentation from the WEF. They clearly state their goals.
Another of their main goals is transhumanism...for which they need highly efficient AI systems requiring so much projected electricity that corporations interested in developing systems for the U.S. .gov are buying land and proposing huge outlays for "cities" to produce this electricity for the Internet of Everything + the chip in your brain. That electricity will come from oil in the Middle East...including off the shores of Gaza. We have all seen how notoriously unreliable "wind and solar farms" have been. They generate bullshit electricity.
Do the globalists possess and hide "free energy devices" which have been bought and/or acquired by disposing of the inventor as some purport? Very likely so. Why continue with charade of oil and gas? (1) Puts the world's population under constant warfare whenever needed. Who's suffered the most in this abomination ongoing in the Middle East? Arab organizations report 2/3, minimally, killed have been women and children in Gaza. GOD DAMN ISRAEL! (2) They can contain and control the masses through curtailing and rationing food and energy.
They can keep the world dumbed down and dependent on them for their lives.
If we think inside a Hollywood mindset, of course you are right. An eye for an eye, vengeance, hubris, etc. The Jew’s way of thinking. But if Israel is bankrupt, Israelis are leaving, Haifa is not working, companies are fleeing or closing, investment is dead, then why to enter in a deadly arm confrontation with them?
U left out that izrael bombed close by Chinese UN contingent and that USA provided EMP to produce the pagers to explode and that the entire west had orchestrated with their banks the dire situation in Lebanon so hungry people jump on scrap dollars and betray and provide intelligence , only traitors provide best info from which Zionist project profit, so if u wrote something think more
{Every undeniable setback is spun by them as part of a “5D chess master plan”, sometimes even to “feign weakness in order to psyche out Israel”, but that’s now known not to be true.}
The mere fact is it has been a year and still not only has Israel NOT be deterred it has escalated it's killing and slaughtering rampage - the West Bank and now Lebanon. For the longest time I've been extremely skeptical of all these alternate political pundit's as the one thing they all share in common is that they are also all ex-government employee's. What's concerned me the most is that none of them has ever once opined even the slightest predictions given the fact there are myriad probabilities and they are also academics. Not one has ever discussed in what ways all of this could take a drastic turn if certain figures are assassinated as continues to be the case?
How is it even remotely possible Netanyahu was able to leave his bunker and travel to and from the airport for his visit to the US and also, not be assassinated? How is it possible no one dare mentions the fact that Israel assassinated the former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi? There's a photo of one of the pagers next to him just before he boards the helicopter.
Why is there always a background of bookcases all these experts have when conducting interviews or the war video's in the background instead of a normal split screen? I personally believe these people are all paid opposition to appease, coral and pacify the dissenters in order to quell any possible mutiny.
All of them spew the exact same narrative. "The Middle East is about to implode" "Netanyahu is crazy"
In conclusion although this post can be considered very sobering there are two points Andrew may also have gotten wrong. It was Alastair Cooke who stated Hezbollah does not use pagers but rather fiber optics. He personally attests to this fact from his time spent in Lebanon in 2006. Secondly, it has also been reported that it was the USA that was behind the terrorist pager attack as all US doctors had been notified in advance to surrender their pagers and were confiscated. The report also stated that Israel had no knowledge of it and allegedly how to scramble more troops to the northern boarder.
I think it's a bit early for Israel to declare victory. If you look at the damage caused to their economy and international reputation, it's a hollow victory at best. A pariah state with a majority of religious fanatics at the helm hardly seems like a favourable outcome, given their former position. Look at the number of Democrats that sat out Netanyahu's recent address to Congress for example, presumably in response to popular opinion in their districts.
Then there's the Yemeni factor. Eilat Port recently declared bankruptcy and no end in sight for that thorn in their side, which is arguably Iran by proxy. Also, people are leaving Israel, many never to return, which doesn't bode well for their economy since most of them are in the liberal professional class whose demographics are declining vs the Orthodox, even without the war effects. Good luck getting the Haredi to stop bobbing and crack a book on economics, never mind science and technology. They won't even step up for military service.
Not to mention the sharp division this has created in Jewish society worldwide, perhaps irreparable at this point. Even if you don't care much for Palestinians, the effect this is having on Jews in general represents a real setback as evidenced by the rising amount of antisemitism, not all of it imagined. What does this bode for Aliyah, not to mention Jewish financial support for Israel down the road?
I always aim for a big picture view of events, and one of the factors in that analysis is the media environment, which has changed drastically in the last 25 years. The fact that we're having this conversation illustrates the point. Mainstream media no longer commands the high ground of public opinion as in prior years. This is a major new development that undermines attempts at narrative control, which is at least as important as victory in the field in terms of international support. Images of the death and destruction in Gaza are burned into people's minds, to the point comparisons are being made to the Warsaw Ghetto. That's a huge loss of narrative control right there, and actions like the recent pager attack further undermine their position, regardless of the short term effect.
{If you look at the damage caused to their economy and international reputation, it's a hollow victory at best. }
Ebear:
Many have made this very same argument but has it slowed down or deterred Israel in the slightest? As far as the economy - they have the USA. As far as their reputation - it will all be forgotten and swept under the carpet. Has anyone stepped up to stop Israel? No and they never will - it's has been almost a year and they have now accelerated the killing to the West Bank and Lebanon. Don't get me wrong I too hoped but reality was much more persuasive.
Well, there's the Yemenis, but I think you mean anyone with the power to actually stop them, which would be the USA, simply by withdrawing their financial and military support, but that's not likely to happen. Anyone else that could, such as Iran or maybe Turkey, has to think of their own people first, considering Israel has nuclear weapons, or at least that's the story. Wouldn't want to put it to the test. Still, if they did use them that might be cause enough for someone to end their capacity to ever do it again. The problem is they seem to have painted themselves into a corner. Maybe their own military can put an end to it, just as a matter of self-preservation? I guess we'll see.
It's an excellent and valid argument Ebear one in which I have made myself but none of this has stopped, impeded, prevented nor deterred Israel. There is not a day goes by I don't wake up to hoping someone finally puts an end to Israel once and for all. I'll also guarantee you I'm certainly not alone as the entire world now stands in solidarity against Israel and the USA. For years we were brainwashed into believing Iran hated all Jews when in fact when Iran stated they wanted to wipe "Israel" off the face of the map the entire world now knows why! It was never it's people but rather the State of Israel. There will never be any more Holocaust sympathizers but I am sadly starting to believe that is as far as this will ever go. This is also why I hope for WWIII. It will be the only way to stop the USA and Israel. Millions could die but no where near the degree they have in the past and future - if both the USA and Israel are allowed to continue unbated.
I remain neutral on all these conflicts because I am a peace promoter regardless of culture or beliefs. Everyone, each individual, is a member of God's family and due to respect and acknowledgement of their internal world map that everyone carries. All are right in their own world.
Thank you Andrew for an excellent analysis yet again which surely nails the truth of the matter.
Should Israel fail to heed this warning, this tiny postage stamp country, a mouse that roars will have to deal with China that depends on Iranian fossil fuels and Russia which will be seen as a paper tiger if it does not stand by its friend. So WWIII could be the outcome.
You often provide inciteful and perceptive analyses which I learn from and respect. But this diatribe, this screed comes out of nowhere. It surprised and disappointed me. There are so many intelligent and knowledgeable and expert people in the alt media whom you have disrespected. I don’t agree with you about a great deal of your analysis. But there is no reason for me to argue. Danny Haiphong interviewing Morandi, max Blumenthal interviewing another even more interesting professor, Mercouris, MacGregor and many others argue persuasively that Hezbollah was well prepared for the consequences of these terrorist actions and has redundant structures in place. No one can anticipate a pager or walkie talkie attack no matter how tight one’s security. We must stop thinking of the Mossad as being all powerful and smart. And we must stop accusing our side of being completely infiltrated and penetrated by the most clever agents in the world.This is the nature of a conflict when you are fighting an opponent with no morality. An opponent that is evil personified and obeys no laws and follows no rules. Can you imagine what would happen if Russia killed the leaders of all its enemies including the ones they are negotiating with? The fighting force of Hezbollah is intact and will show the Zionazis that their defeat by Hamas will be dwarfed by what happens to them when they meet Hezbollah on its terms. Iran has dealt the Zionazis a serious blow but still on the level of a warning.
Aged pretty poorly from misunderstanding of Hezbollah's command structure and racing to provide a 'hot take' laundering an axe to grind over media personalities. Israel has taken a bloody hit to its F35 fleet while its ground operations have been a disaster so far. At no point, also, does this opinion column mention the fact that Hezbollah has Israel in a economic strategic stranglehold in its depopulation of the north which the recent moves of Israel have done nothing to dislodge despite the theatrics. There is a reluctance to escalate from the axis because there is no need to escalate according to their strategic objectives.
Norman Finkelstein has an interesting take on this, from this interview: "Prof. Norman Finkelstein: An Israeli Ground War Against Hezbollah Would Be A 'Catastrophe'"
..EXCERPT..
Israel is hoping it can knock out Lebanon by air. The Hezbollah strategy is perfectly obvious: they will keep shooting rockets at Israel; however, they're not going to let out a huge blitz. Every time Israel declares victory over Hezbollah, they will fire more rockets. Israel will then inflict more aerial destruction, declare victory, and then Hezbollah will fire more rockets in order to make the situation politically untenable for Israel. They'll have to launch a ground invasion. Now, if you listen to Nasrallah's last speech, he literally said, "Please invade, please invade. We welcome the invasion," which is true. Whether it's 100,000 or 75,000, the Party of God longs for, yearns for that invasion so they can finally settle the score with that satanic state, man to man, in hand-to-hand combat.
The Israelis dread the land war. Hezbollah longs for it, and the only way it can force the land war is to keep its rockets and missiles in reserve and deny Netanyahu the chance to declare victory. That's what happened in 2006. Israel amassed the troops on its border with Lebanon, and it wasn't until 72 hours before the 33-day war was over that Israeli troops entered Lebanon. Condoleezza Rice had already gotten a UN resolution through to end the war because Israel begged the US: "Get that resolution, get that resolution because we don't want the land invasion; it will be a disaster." And, speaking as a complete military know-nothing, speaking as a complete military ignoramus, I would say with 100% certainty, if it comes to pass, it will be a catastrophe for the state of Israel because those people have no fear, no dread of giving their lives to finally settling the score with that monstrous state that has inflicted so much death, destruction, agony, and anguish with all the haughtiness and arrogance of the Übermensch.
...
So the question is, how much death and destruction will Israel inflict from the air, and secondly, whether they will be forced to act because Hezbollah will deny Prime Minister Netanyahu the ability to declare victory. I should note that in the 2006 war, Hezbollah, on the very last day—on the 33rd day—fired more missiles and rockets than on any other day in that 33-day war. I think—correct me if I'm wrong—it was 10,000. Hezbollah wanted to transmit the message: "You lost." And I think they're going to do the same thing this time. They will hold back—that's my guess.
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arUHCv1iXgk
... and here is the full discussion with Prof. Norman Finkelstein on Rumble: https://rumble.com/v5g6zvd-gaza-is-gone-prof.-norman-finkelstein-on-israels-destruction-and-war-goals.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp
One can drag one's military underground, but one cannot drag its population underground. This is a weak spot for all these pseudo-state actors. However, the human intelligence and counter intelligence failure, and perhaps signal intelligence failure as well, are defects that have to be fixed before folks against Israel can seriously think of a military confrontation.
It is a weak spot for Israel too, since wantonly killing civilians under the pretext that they harbour terrorists is not flying any longer. And now Israel is hitting UN outposts, to have them remove the troops to not stand witness... Europeans are all outraged, except Germany of course, who cannot miss doing or backing a genocide, if it can.
Andrew, what are you talking about. You've been way off base on some of your previous analysis, but It's been interesting to read for at least an alternate take. This analysis though is in the realm of ridiculous.
Just because one side has no moral standing and is willing to commit war crimes and conduct genocide, it doesn't mean that they are winning the war. Also, as Vietnam showed us, one side can win almost every battle but still lose the war.
In short, just because Israel is killing more people doesn't make them the winner.
Also, the pager terror attack mainly killed and injured civilians, many of them healthcare workers, not the Hezbollah command structure. You couldn't even get this right. Not good, brother.
Thank you for clarifying the pager attack....as if the Hezbollah command structure is dependent on pagers hahahhahahahaaha
Andrew greatly oversimplifies Hezbollah’s situation and misunderstands how resilient and adaptable these organizations are, which is surprising, given his usual penchant for overly complicated frameworks that rarely map to reality.
Anyone familiar with the region’s history knows that Hezbollah, along with other Shia paramilitary groups like the IRGC, has a deeply ingrained culture of martyrdom. This isn’t just rhetoric—it’s a core part of their operational strategy. The assassination of figures like Abbas al-Musawi in 1992 didn’t lead to Hezbollah’s collapse, and General Qasem Soleimani’s death didn’t dismantle the IRGC. In fact, both groups grew stronger, using martyrdom to fuel their cause and recruit new members. Killing Nasrallah—or any other leader—won’t break Hezbollah, as they’ve shown time and again they can replace leadership and continue operations with minimal disruption.
Andrew also downplays Hezbollah’s well-established continuity plans. These organizations are specifically designed to withstand leadership decapitations, expecting and planning for such moves. Hezbollah didn’t falter in the 1990s when it was less organized; today, it’s far more sophisticated and well-equipped.
Given Hezbollah’s long history of surviving and growing stronger despite military and political efforts to dismantle them, claims of a decisive Israeli victory are overstated. Hezbollah has faced significant setbacks before and emerged more resilient, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t do so again.
While what you say makes sense, in principle, it does not match reality. What we have seen over the past 1 months is a lot of rhetoric about "red line", "heavy price as vengeance", and more.
In reality nothing has changed other than ZioNaziland having got ever bolder and managing to kill some key personnel in Iran and Lebanon. ZioNaziland now laughs at the rhetoric, although its own rhetoric belies its weakness and cowardice.
I suppose the response is "then let them be martyrs".
It’s exactly this kind of misguided thinking that has led the West to repeatedly lose conflicts against so-called "rag heads" and "goat herders." I suggest researching the concept of "Insurgent Math" put forward by General Stanley McChrystal.
Simplistic comments like "let them be martyrs" reveal a fundamental misunderstanding of the enemy. Martyrdom isn’t just accepted in groups like Hezbollah or the IRGC—it’s celebrated, fueling their cause, rallying new recruits, and strengthening their resolve. Killing their leaders doesn’t weaken them; history shows that it often makes them stronger.
People from cultures like Israel, where fear of death is deeply embedded in both society and its military philosophy, struggle greatly to grasp this. Not every culture has the same paralyzing fear of death they have. For many, especially in organizations built around martyrdom, death is seen as honorable and even necessary for their cause. Simply removing leaders won’t end these conflicts because groups like Hezbollah are designed to survive and adapt in the face of such losses.
If all of Israel’s leaders were killed, it might indeed end the war for them—because they are total cowards—but for groups like Hezbollah, that’s exactly what they’ve prepared for.
Israel has no problem with mass extermination on a hitlerian scale.
Edit: I shoulda added, that I am abundantly aware of the Shia culture of martyrdom, of Imam Hossein and Karbala, as well as how killing insurgents creates insurgents.
I agree Israel has genocidal intent, but the idea that they could "completely eradicate" their enemies is logistically implausible, even with sustained military operations.
Take the combined populations of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran—around 169.5 million people. Even assuming a death rate of 37,697 civilians per month (based on the reasonable assumption that the actual Palestinian death toll is 10 times the reported figure of 41,460 over 11 months), it would still take over 374 years to eliminate these populations. That's years, not months. This doesn’t even factor in birth rates, migration, or increased resistance.
Focusing solely on the Shia populations of those areas—about 119 million people—would still take 262 years at a rate of 37,697 civilian deaths per month.
Executing mass extermination on this scale would require resources beyond what any military could sustain. It would demand continuous success, near-perfect precision, and the suppression of both immediate resistance and long-term insurgencies that would inevitably arise. Moreover, international pressures and external powers would impose serious limits on such an operation's feasibility.
Even at an extreme death rate, the logistics make total eradication of their enemies impossible for Israel.
This is why they rely on terror bombing—not to wipe out entire populations, but to intimidate and suppress resistance, destabilizing the region and subduing its people. They understand the limits of full-scale extermination, so their strategy focuses on control and fear rather than outright destruction.
Israel has more than genocidal intent, they are actively committing genocide right now.
While on the surface not important, Israel is also on the docks for war crimes and genocide and apartheid in the highest courts of justice, both as a state and as individuals. On the long run, when sentencing comes, this will matter a lot...
It would be interesting to know how this cultural “fear of death” arose in their nation. Is it a cultural belief that existed when they were in the diaspora, that they brought with them when the current entity was founded in 1948?
They are primarily European/usa therefore terrified of death as most In those cultures are.
Yep, I was a believer in the might of Hezbollah. Not because I knew, had researched it or something, but just because I believed our alt media gurus. The 'clerisy' of alt media.
More and more I realise that they are little better than the MSM.
I slowly became aware of how many simply drone the same message every time they are interviewed. Then how many of them were talking sheer rubbish off the cuff in their 'analysis' of battlefield and such.
Then how many based their prognostications on published 'facts' - a childish error one struggles to believe they could have made.
And so on.
I am down to checking a couple of TG channels every morning now and that's about it. On a daily basis. When he writes I check John Helmer.
That's it. There really, really is nothing.
I've long said it now and I'm saying it stronger and stronger: those at the top are lunatics, the mass at the bottom are asleep, those we might hope/expect some help, information and direction from: the self styled clerisy, they give nothing.
So I hold them to be at major fault.
The half million dead in Ukraine are dead not because of the lunatics in Kiev and Washington and not because of the zombie apathy of the masses but because of the pathetic behaviour of the clerisy.
The same with Palestine.
The same everywhere.
We desperately need a real clerisy with thinking sensible caring and dynamic people who can illuminate the way and spread truth.
When was the last time you ever got any suggested direction from anyone anywhere in the clerisy?
They still universally refer to it as 'helping Ukraine' etc. when - surely I don't need to point it out ? - helping a civil war perpetuate never helps the nation. Half a million dead didn't get helped did they?
The West is ruled by evil cynics, but they are not stupid.
Israel wants Iran and Hezbollah to escalate, in order to run screaming to its American thug.
This creates a no-win on the part of Iran and Hezbollah.
Israel is a small country and has probably 100 strategically important assets.
Iran can finish Israel in a few hours without killing one civilian.
Which raises the question of what Iran is waiting for, then?
Because they are not Americans.
Iran is a civilization.
Sounds like you are making excuses, since Israel continues to attack.
Israel is taking on one by one. May be after Lebanon again syria. It isn't israel everyone is afraid but USA which is ready to wage war
The "5D Chess" belief you cite seems to be a common theme in so much of the reporting not just in this area but on all the modern conflicts. But I think the fact of the matter is that around the world, the quality of the leadership class is plummeting, and very few are clever enough to be capable of that kind of thinking. If it looks like a mistake or failure, it probably IS.
Today has brought confirmation of Nasrallah's death.
I don't really care for either side in this war. If I "side" with anyone, I side with the countless civilians bombed, maimed, injured, and disabled if they live.
I think we see that the "Resistance" has for long never planned any kind of real war as we study or think of war defined through history where one side militarily breaks another.
The fact is this: to get Nasrallah, Israel has killed, minimally, 700 Lebanese. Just as they did/do in Gaza. Lavender, their AI software, targets (supposedly) up to 300 extraneous deaths as morally justified to kill one senior Hamas or Hezbollah leader.
Israel isn't defending itself. Israel's campaign reveals the Rothschild's true interest (remember who first bought the land and who lobbied UK to accede the land to them via Balfour): the establishment of a techno state in Israel which dismantles the tribal structure (pettiness, hatreds, etc.) in the Middle East so that their transnationals (Halliburton et al.) can build a vast oil/gas infrastructure to support AI facilities (which require enormous electrical output) worldwide. Notice how many small snippets of information have been dropped recently about so-and-so needing more infrastructure (electricity) for their "AI projects"?
If the Resistance truly wanted victory, they would walk several suicide bombers into Tel Aviv with tactical nuclear weapons. Tactical nukes are cold fission and produce little (no atomic signature) of the atomic blasts seen in history films, but they destroy quite effectively.
I can only surmise, at this point, that the entire "war" is a game because the "Resistance" seems only intent on vague political and military objectives which slaughter civilians.
Col. MacGregor interviewed by Judge Napolitano says categorically that the U.S. does not have the capability to put soldiers on the ground. He reiterates that the U.S. has no surge capacity to step up preparations for a true war such as WWII...which is why they fritter and pick here and there at warfare (my conclusion). The U.S. lacks personnel and missile production capacity. He points out that we don't have the "unified military command structure" to facilitate fighting either in Ukraine or Israel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cW8bgkF_JkY
I don't think Israel does either because they're so closely allied with U.S.' interests and plans. They have enormously massive numbers of weapons which they use with impunity throughout the Middle East. They can only fight through superior sophisticated weaponry; they, too, cannot support troops on the ground. They're weak minded and spoiled which predominates their military. I wouldn't take one of their soldiers into battle with me.
The "Resistance" can do what they like, but unless their tactics change dramatically, their future is The Greater Middle East Plan. They will be absorbed with the Sunni countries, like Saudi Arabia, already onboard WEF-U.S.-Israel led programs, reaping huge wealth and rewards for compliance...but they will comply or die. Gaza is an extremely effective example of what they'll do.
They will be, then, the techno slaves of states like Israel who will expand to the Jordan River and into Syria-Jordan while building pipelines supplying Europe and points West. They also want access to the Persian Gulf through Iraq...which is why the U.S. is STILL in Iraq although "promising" to leave recently. Their "leaving" means leaving U.S. military "advisors" in Iraq, which, as those of us older and wiser know, means they can reconstitute their forces within weeks in such a country.
Shock and awe, baby.
It all boils down to the trades routes and shipping corridors and the race for who will succeed and gain control of the Middle East. It was written early on this was the USA's greatest worry that would Russia would bring peace to the Middle East which I personally believe is why they are deliberately trying to confine Putin in order to prevent him from doing so. The intentional escalation in Ukraine at the exact same time you're witnessing the escalation in the Middle East.
This is all about multipolarity and the end of the US hegemony. For now we no longer know who is on whose side and all of this has been nothing but political posturing. Hell might freeze over before Iran makes good on it's promise to retaliate against Israel for the assassinations.
Exactly correct, imo. What many people don't realize is that "green energy" and "shortage of oil" are simply policies for the masses. The true "globalist" doesn't give a damn about the environment, for he, above all others, is responsible for the deplorable state of the planet right now. Their transnational corporations or "shareholders," as they've been rebranded, are the polluters and strippers of assets...not Joe Schmoe living in Brooklyn, U.S.A. This isn't my wild-eyed "conspiracy-theorist" opinion. See https://www.bitchute.com/video/osFASxP9DzF0/.
The globalists want a high-tech state governed by themselves in an organization controlling the entire planet. Again, we need look no further than UN's Agendas 2030, 2040, or whatever along with supporting documentation from the WEF. They clearly state their goals.
Another of their main goals is transhumanism...for which they need highly efficient AI systems requiring so much projected electricity that corporations interested in developing systems for the U.S. .gov are buying land and proposing huge outlays for "cities" to produce this electricity for the Internet of Everything + the chip in your brain. That electricity will come from oil in the Middle East...including off the shores of Gaza. We have all seen how notoriously unreliable "wind and solar farms" have been. They generate bullshit electricity.
Do the globalists possess and hide "free energy devices" which have been bought and/or acquired by disposing of the inventor as some purport? Very likely so. Why continue with charade of oil and gas? (1) Puts the world's population under constant warfare whenever needed. Who's suffered the most in this abomination ongoing in the Middle East? Arab organizations report 2/3, minimally, killed have been women and children in Gaza. GOD DAMN ISRAEL! (2) They can contain and control the masses through curtailing and rationing food and energy.
They can keep the world dumbed down and dependent on them for their lives.
If we think inside a Hollywood mindset, of course you are right. An eye for an eye, vengeance, hubris, etc. The Jew’s way of thinking. But if Israel is bankrupt, Israelis are leaving, Haifa is not working, companies are fleeing or closing, investment is dead, then why to enter in a deadly arm confrontation with them?
U left out that izrael bombed close by Chinese UN contingent and that USA provided EMP to produce the pagers to explode and that the entire west had orchestrated with their banks the dire situation in Lebanon so hungry people jump on scrap dollars and betray and provide intelligence , only traitors provide best info from which Zionist project profit, so if u wrote something think more
{Every undeniable setback is spun by them as part of a “5D chess master plan”, sometimes even to “feign weakness in order to psyche out Israel”, but that’s now known not to be true.}
The mere fact is it has been a year and still not only has Israel NOT be deterred it has escalated it's killing and slaughtering rampage - the West Bank and now Lebanon. For the longest time I've been extremely skeptical of all these alternate political pundit's as the one thing they all share in common is that they are also all ex-government employee's. What's concerned me the most is that none of them has ever once opined even the slightest predictions given the fact there are myriad probabilities and they are also academics. Not one has ever discussed in what ways all of this could take a drastic turn if certain figures are assassinated as continues to be the case?
How is it even remotely possible Netanyahu was able to leave his bunker and travel to and from the airport for his visit to the US and also, not be assassinated? How is it possible no one dare mentions the fact that Israel assassinated the former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi? There's a photo of one of the pagers next to him just before he boards the helicopter.
Why is there always a background of bookcases all these experts have when conducting interviews or the war video's in the background instead of a normal split screen? I personally believe these people are all paid opposition to appease, coral and pacify the dissenters in order to quell any possible mutiny.
All of them spew the exact same narrative. "The Middle East is about to implode" "Netanyahu is crazy"
In conclusion although this post can be considered very sobering there are two points Andrew may also have gotten wrong. It was Alastair Cooke who stated Hezbollah does not use pagers but rather fiber optics. He personally attests to this fact from his time spent in Lebanon in 2006. Secondly, it has also been reported that it was the USA that was behind the terrorist pager attack as all US doctors had been notified in advance to surrender their pagers and were confiscated. The report also stated that Israel had no knowledge of it and allegedly how to scramble more troops to the northern boarder.
I think it's a bit early for Israel to declare victory. If you look at the damage caused to their economy and international reputation, it's a hollow victory at best. A pariah state with a majority of religious fanatics at the helm hardly seems like a favourable outcome, given their former position. Look at the number of Democrats that sat out Netanyahu's recent address to Congress for example, presumably in response to popular opinion in their districts.
Then there's the Yemeni factor. Eilat Port recently declared bankruptcy and no end in sight for that thorn in their side, which is arguably Iran by proxy. Also, people are leaving Israel, many never to return, which doesn't bode well for their economy since most of them are in the liberal professional class whose demographics are declining vs the Orthodox, even without the war effects. Good luck getting the Haredi to stop bobbing and crack a book on economics, never mind science and technology. They won't even step up for military service.
Not to mention the sharp division this has created in Jewish society worldwide, perhaps irreparable at this point. Even if you don't care much for Palestinians, the effect this is having on Jews in general represents a real setback as evidenced by the rising amount of antisemitism, not all of it imagined. What does this bode for Aliyah, not to mention Jewish financial support for Israel down the road?
I always aim for a big picture view of events, and one of the factors in that analysis is the media environment, which has changed drastically in the last 25 years. The fact that we're having this conversation illustrates the point. Mainstream media no longer commands the high ground of public opinion as in prior years. This is a major new development that undermines attempts at narrative control, which is at least as important as victory in the field in terms of international support. Images of the death and destruction in Gaza are burned into people's minds, to the point comparisons are being made to the Warsaw Ghetto. That's a huge loss of narrative control right there, and actions like the recent pager attack further undermine their position, regardless of the short term effect.
{If you look at the damage caused to their economy and international reputation, it's a hollow victory at best. }
Ebear:
Many have made this very same argument but has it slowed down or deterred Israel in the slightest? As far as the economy - they have the USA. As far as their reputation - it will all be forgotten and swept under the carpet. Has anyone stepped up to stop Israel? No and they never will - it's has been almost a year and they have now accelerated the killing to the West Bank and Lebanon. Don't get me wrong I too hoped but reality was much more persuasive.
"Has anyone stepped up to stop Israel?"
Well, there's the Yemenis, but I think you mean anyone with the power to actually stop them, which would be the USA, simply by withdrawing their financial and military support, but that's not likely to happen. Anyone else that could, such as Iran or maybe Turkey, has to think of their own people first, considering Israel has nuclear weapons, or at least that's the story. Wouldn't want to put it to the test. Still, if they did use them that might be cause enough for someone to end their capacity to ever do it again. The problem is they seem to have painted themselves into a corner. Maybe their own military can put an end to it, just as a matter of self-preservation? I guess we'll see.
It's an excellent and valid argument Ebear one in which I have made myself but none of this has stopped, impeded, prevented nor deterred Israel. There is not a day goes by I don't wake up to hoping someone finally puts an end to Israel once and for all. I'll also guarantee you I'm certainly not alone as the entire world now stands in solidarity against Israel and the USA. For years we were brainwashed into believing Iran hated all Jews when in fact when Iran stated they wanted to wipe "Israel" off the face of the map the entire world now knows why! It was never it's people but rather the State of Israel. There will never be any more Holocaust sympathizers but I am sadly starting to believe that is as far as this will ever go. This is also why I hope for WWIII. It will be the only way to stop the USA and Israel. Millions could die but no where near the degree they have in the past and future - if both the USA and Israel are allowed to continue unbated.
I remain neutral on all these conflicts because I am a peace promoter regardless of culture or beliefs. Everyone, each individual, is a member of God's family and due to respect and acknowledgement of their internal world map that everyone carries. All are right in their own world.
Thank you Andrew for an excellent analysis yet again which surely nails the truth of the matter.
Should Israel fail to heed this warning, this tiny postage stamp country, a mouse that roars will have to deal with China that depends on Iranian fossil fuels and Russia which will be seen as a paper tiger if it does not stand by its friend. So WWIII could be the outcome.
Andrew,
You often provide inciteful and perceptive analyses which I learn from and respect. But this diatribe, this screed comes out of nowhere. It surprised and disappointed me. There are so many intelligent and knowledgeable and expert people in the alt media whom you have disrespected. I don’t agree with you about a great deal of your analysis. But there is no reason for me to argue. Danny Haiphong interviewing Morandi, max Blumenthal interviewing another even more interesting professor, Mercouris, MacGregor and many others argue persuasively that Hezbollah was well prepared for the consequences of these terrorist actions and has redundant structures in place. No one can anticipate a pager or walkie talkie attack no matter how tight one’s security. We must stop thinking of the Mossad as being all powerful and smart. And we must stop accusing our side of being completely infiltrated and penetrated by the most clever agents in the world.This is the nature of a conflict when you are fighting an opponent with no morality. An opponent that is evil personified and obeys no laws and follows no rules. Can you imagine what would happen if Russia killed the leaders of all its enemies including the ones they are negotiating with? The fighting force of Hezbollah is intact and will show the Zionazis that their defeat by Hamas will be dwarfed by what happens to them when they meet Hezbollah on its terms. Iran has dealt the Zionazis a serious blow but still on the level of a warning.
Aged pretty poorly from misunderstanding of Hezbollah's command structure and racing to provide a 'hot take' laundering an axe to grind over media personalities. Israel has taken a bloody hit to its F35 fleet while its ground operations have been a disaster so far. At no point, also, does this opinion column mention the fact that Hezbollah has Israel in a economic strategic stranglehold in its depopulation of the north which the recent moves of Israel have done nothing to dislodge despite the theatrics. There is a reluctance to escalate from the axis because there is no need to escalate according to their strategic objectives.