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Psycherrant's avatar

Why do you mention Alawites and Kurds but say nothing of the fate of Christians?

Andrew Korybko's avatar

Christians aren't concentrated in a large enough area to realistically have any chance of forming a broad Bosnian-like federalized autonomy that could have their own security services and other forms of support for their community.

If anything of the sort transpires, I'd expect that they'd move to the Alawite and/or Kurdish polities if they didn't feel safe remaining in their hometowns.

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Dec 8, 2024
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Feral Finster's avatar

Like in Iraq, Lol? The Christians survived and at times thrived almost two thousand years in Iraq. They survived Tamerlane, the Mongols, the Ottomans, Murad, the Abbasids, Saddam Hussein and many others.

They did not survive the Americans.

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Dec 9, 2024
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Hachemi Hadjoudj's avatar

It seems to me wrong to consider that the puppet and motley regime that will succeed that of Bashar Al Assad, will allow Russia to keep its bases in Syria. The US/Israel couple will force, in one way or another, its "foals" to get rid of this unfortunate thorn... The big losers will be, Russia on the one hand, Iran of course, and, above all, the dream of a peaceful, just and prosperous Middle East...

Andrew Korybko's avatar

I don't believe that any retention of Russia's bases would be due to the post-Assad authorities allowing it, but would happen (if it doesn't withdraw like some reports claim that it's already in the process of doing or is preparing to do) against their will.

Mike Hampton's avatar

It will be up to Turkey to decide if Russia keeps its 'summer' base, so what will Turkey want in return. Either way, Russia is not happy with Erdogan.

NedZeppelin's avatar

Assad’s cowardly flight? Seems like everyone wanted him out so he did what he had to do. What was he going to do, grab a machine gun and go down fighting?

Andrew Korybko's avatar

He didn't even address his nation once, how is that anything but cowardly? His supporters fought for 13 years in his name to preserve what he represented and he couldn't even be bothered with putting out a low-quality video on social media? Come on, that's the definition of a coward. I have no respect for him at all.

Pramod's avatar

By replicating the Syria model of "sanctions" as embodied in Trump's notorious Caesar Act, the Western strategy is to impoverish and emaciate Russia in the same way by seizing its asetts, imposing blockade in the fashion of highway brigands on international commercial traffic to and from that country, and terrorising countries of the global south into ostracising both Russia as well as their own compatriots who continue to do business with Russia. At the same time, the CIA led Western cabal will relentlessly try to buy out moles from amongst personnel strategically perched in governance hierarchy in Russia, facilitated by unbridled printing of the US dollar. These acts are part of a concerted civilisational war of decimation waged by the entire collective west on Russia, and as yet it is too early for any Russophile to poke fun at Mr Assad. And as far as my memory serves me right, such is not the official policy of the Russian Federation either. The hard lesson for Russia immanent in the Syrian fiasco might be that Russia needs to act decisively by military means (whilst also of necessity substantially decoupling itself from western economies and breaking free of western colonial instruments of leverage such as pan-European conventions on IPR's and patents) in some or the other theatre before it is too late and the fate of Iraq befalls it as planned by its implacable western foes who harbour irreconciliable animosity towards it.

Feral Finster's avatar

It should be abundantly obvious by now that the Russian leadership is only playing at being a superpower, but they are nowhere near decisive or ruthless enough to be one.

Denis's avatar

It does appear so. Russia has the means to completely neutralize NATO by forcing Ukraine's surrender instead of settling for a whole lot less and getting fooled again in the future. Putin is over-diplomatic against a ruthless opposition.

Feral Finster's avatar

Russia certainly *had* the means to do so.

Bindoner's avatar

It looks very much like the SAA had already made arrangements with the "rebels", because they effectively escorted the enemy into the capital. The whole thing looks more like a transition of power to Turkish/US/Israeli proxies instead of Russian/Iranian ones. This suggests the army will, indeed, be kept in being - a small positive.

Mike Hampton's avatar

Let's not forget those that defected to Iran.

Nakayama's avatar

As long as Syria is in chaos, USSA and Israel have already won.

Historically, the Western colonialists won in the ME because people in the desert had too much hatred for one another and very difficult to unite. Lawrence of Arabia is a vivid characterization. Even if Syria maintains a weak government but remains in practical fragmentation, Russia's relationships with all ME countries are discounted. In retrospect, Russia's long-term planners had over-estimated their achievement in the ME, because poor people can be easily bribed by infinite print of US Dollars. I am sure I myself has overlooked the potential impact of the Syria stability issue. Russians are a people traditionally with very strong nationalism and have had a unified government for several hundred years. It is probably not easy to comprehend the minds of the people living in poor and fragmented countries.

However, I don't see Russians giving only limited support to Assad's government as a betrayal. When NAZI forces broke the French forces at Lille and moved toward Dunkirk, the UK withdrew all its tactical airforce back to England. British planes still came over the Strait to fight in the sky of France, but they were launched from the UK and they flew back to the UK. I don't see Russia should withdraw from its naval base, as that Russian force may be the only dependable anchor for peace in Syria. I don't know whether Russia should continue to support Assad or not. If not, should Russia organize a provisional government from the Syria land around the Russian naval base?

MarcoPolo's avatar

The USSA doesn't even like the ME either. You can't buy the loyalty of these people but you can only rent them. You can't just print money forever to bribe these desert people, while commodities and resources in ME are already at their limit.

The USSA has massive economic problems that demand our intentions elsewhere, as Trump said. The USSA will likely allow Israel to do whatever it wants as Americans will limit their direct presence in ME. The USSA will outsource the dirty works to Israel from now on, as I see it.

Pramod's avatar

The US military has consistently refused to withdraw from Syria, despite its presence there being entirely illegal. The Pentagon had occupied huge swathes of Syria, the most productive ones at that, oil and wheat, by exploiting Syria's helplessness during the peak of ISIS insurgency when the Syrian Army had got too bogged down on multiple fronts and become too weak to protect Syria from invasion and dismemberment. The Pentagon and Mossad have effectively vivisected Syria politically and such had been the status quo for years on end. Says Uncle Sam, "In view of the strategic importance of the Levant to us and our allies, we do not forsee our forces ever leaving that region".

From the aforegoing precedent, it seems plain obvious that it would be unwise and possibly unethical of Russia to agree to any withdrawl from its military bases in Syria which it had built in the first place solely upon the invitation of the legitimate government of Syria under the doctrine of collective defense. If the White House dismisses the Assad government as a dictatorial regime despite the fact that elections had regularly been held in Syria, then all pf American-friendly regimes in the Arabian peninsula from Jordan and Saudia to Qatar, Kuwait and UAE are even more despotic Bedouin monarchies. The tender mercies of Islamism are legendary, but this will time around it is the Mossad and the Ziofascist quasi Phoenician Phareesical empire acting via intermediary vassals which holds the reins of this fiendish monster, and that cabal is strongly opposed in practice to the continuation of Russian presence on Syrian soil. For the sake of protection of Syrian civilians from the Islamist scourge as well as prempting the latter's wholesale splatter onto Russian mainland, it would only be prudent of Russia to obstinately resist all pressure from all quarters to vacate its bases in Syria, especially given that all of such quarters are foreign vested interests alien to Syria which possess no legal mandate or locus standi to be ordering Russians around !

Feral Finster's avatar

Nobody will give Russia a choice.

Rocket Raja's avatar

Ziofascist quasi Phoenician Phareesical empire// which country is it and explain?

Rocket Raja's avatar

that's a bot? while some facts are true most of what is said above is unbelievable

Pramod's avatar

Zio-oligarchic corpimperialist cabal, ensconced in citadels masquerading as bourses. Aliens who stole much of Amica from cowboys, after covertly disenfranchising the latter economically, socially and politically ; and infiltrating, subverting all democratic institutions and gritesquely transmogrifying them beyond repair. This cabal has expropriated the entire edifice of western imperialism which had been assiduously built over the centuries by cowboys, and with itself at the helm, is now poised to fling its sheeple hosts wholesale as expendable cannon fodder in the line of nuclear fire in its zero sum gambles of vanquishing Russia for the sake of global economic dominance.

James Irwin's avatar

Seriously. Damascus is across the mountains from Beirut. Both cities are beautiful before Western Politics entered. Families left in the 70’s . Damascus was donkeys and sand. Our Bierut contact is barely surviving as a long time resident. This “Paris of the Mediterranean “ has US MIL-Pentagon-DC-EU-UN-Congress written all over it. Residents walk through rubble for limited daily shopping. Banking services are weak. WTF. Just leave cuz you can’t fix what has been made.

Damascus was a historical city for centuries. Syria was a Christian area centuries ago.

Pramod's avatar

I see no way the US and its NATO quislings are going to allow Russia to maintain its military presence in Syria hereafter, DEAL or NO DEAL notwithstanding. The Pentagon simply is unable to reconcile itself to the idea. Except if Russia demonstrates the will power to match bullying tactics by the Pentagon and its proxies with an eye for an eye and a fist for a fist. Otherwise, I can envisage a vista of drone swarm attacks on both Hmeim airbase and Tartus naval base, originating from all sides including American frigates, American Army bases, Israel and of course the HTS. Needless to say, the HTS will claim dubious responsibility by owning up all of those attacks to cover for NATO and Israel, much like both Israel and US had been launching unclaimed attacks from their respective UAV's on those Russian bases during the heydays of ISIS insurgency. It is doubtful whether Russia will be able to spare enough defensive firepower in the form of anti-drone ammunition or the S 400's from its Ukrainian theatre to match the impending drone swarms threatening its bases in Syria. The only viable option, short of a complete retreat or withdrawl, seems to lie in going on the offensive in some measure, but that would depend on the political will and weighing of all pros and cons. Until then, I am not very optimistic about the future of Russian bases in Syria, eventhough I certainly am not hoping for anything ominous to befall them even for the sake of proving my surmises right, nor would I bet my money on such a prediction. However, the Russian leadership perhaps really will need to do a rethink of the conservative approach to policy after taking fresh stock of the entire situation (anew).

Pramod's avatar

A very large number of sex therapy clinics have sprung up across Israel in recent years. In most of those clinics, the government of Israel pays the clinic owners or so called sex-therapists, for "sexual rehabilitation" of such Israeli military personnel who have lately been suffering loss of libido in the aftermath of combat injuries, or from depression consequent upon remorse for excesses committed upon adversaries in the line of military duty. Israeli soldiers are by convention bereft of the liberty to voice their personal remorse or feelings of guilt in public, or even to friends in the military or amongst civilian populace. The pent up feelings of guilt as pitted against a lifetime of self superior and self rectitudinal indoctrination, result in a conflict of psychology which has been wreaking havoc with the mental health of Israeli soldiers. And the government of Israel in its enlightened wisdom has decided that pampering such "traumatized" soldiers with bounties of lascivious extramarital carnal indulgence, is the best remedy for all of those mental and psychological ailments engendered by circumstances of their military assignments. In those sex therapy clinics, male Israeli soldiers are retaught the ABC of love making from scratch, by female psychologists in a very seductive and lewd environment, laden with sexually explicit scenes painted all over the walls and outright vulgar language and tone used by those psychologists. But the icing on the cake is the mandatory practical sessions, which invariably follow those didactic lectures and interactive one to one dialogues between male Israeli soldier and his female sex therapist. At the end of those sessions, the soldier is retired to a Cosy room sporting all the features of a luxury brothel, and provided a real female sexual partner who is little more than a sexual serf, for enacting all of his latent and dirty sexual fantasies on that unfortunate women. In fact, just prior to commencement of those "practical" sessions which are nothing short of legalised prostitution subsidized by the government, the real life spouses of those Israeli soldiers are summoned to the clinic, and cajoled to encourage their husbands to shed off all inhibitions before undertaking their libidinous feat of impressive performance in that brothel, and to assure those husbands that they should not worry in the least about embarrassment from their wives. The wives are told that those carnal liaisons in the brothel are simply part of the state's endeavour to keep Israeli Army in fit shape, and are something the whole nation must unquestioningly feel proud about. The male soldiers are also especially warned by their therapist or instructor, not to get carried away by allowing soft feelings to develop in their hearts for their one night stand female partners, who are to be treated as beings with no greater status than temporary sex mannequins. The million dollar question is, who are the women who are being trafficked by the Israeli sex therapy public- private partnership syndicate into those brothels for satiating the carnal appetite of Israeli soldiers and wayward Israeli male civilians? The Torah proscribed adultery and prescribes death by stoning for the act. As such, it is most unlikely that the Israeli state will incentivate female Israeli Jewish nationals to prostitute themselves in those state-patronized brothels. It is highly suspected that unsuspecting Palestinian Muslim women, picked up under pretext of routine questioning by the IDF, are being thrown for sexual exploitation amounting to rape in those brothels, and are then being forced to keep silent about those monstrosities for the rest of their lives out of fear of social stigmatization if the Mossad goes overboard with defaming them by revealing spicy details of their coerced sexual encounters with Israeli soldiers.

There is reason to believe that the Hamas, originally goaded into emergence by the Mossad itself as a countervail to influence of Palestinian faction Fatah, is not quite the "proxy" of Iran it has been made out to be in recent years. In fact, some of the mouthpieces of covert Mossad propaganda who feign Islamist leanings such as CJ Weleman, have gone so far to say in exonerating Iran in this respect that Iran has not killed a single Isreali soldier in the entire duration of its existence on earth. (CJ Werleman in fact taunts Iran for not killing Israeli nationals who are all Jews by default, yet no one accuses this man of antisemetism because he is peddling propaganda for the Israeli side. CJ Weleman moreover lays the blame on Iran's proxies for alleged "massacre of thousands of Palestinians in Syria" perhaps in tacit reference to some of the 150000 strong Uieghur terrorist desperadoes in the ISIS who had made fatuous claims of being Palestinian by ethnicity, some of whom had perished in skirmishes with heroic Syrian defenders ). Iran's association with the Hamas seems limited to congenial talking terms with that outfit; and anyways now with Syria and Iran effectively out of the picture, it would be interesting to see if the Palestinian Queen of Jordan, nicknamed "Mother of Israel and Palestine" because of her exceptional soft corner for Israel in addition to her ubiquitous reverence by Palestinian diaspora in Jordan, can manage to bring lasting peace to Israel by pacifying the restive Hamas with the soothing ambience of her red lipstick and a bewitching wink of her eye.

Andrew's avatar

Shocking but probably mostly true

Boris Petrov's avatar

One of the BEST ever Benz tutorial -- on Trump 2nd assassin, Rumania, crime in Pakistan, Greater Israel:

- Why trial of 2nd Trump assassin has been postponed – because of (CIA) “complications”

- Why CIA removed and torture destroyed Pakistan’s most popular president ever, Imran Khan – because of his “aggressive neutrality” against “unprovoked” war against Russia

- The role of Afghanistan’s heroin and arms smuggling to finance “unprovoked” war in Ukraine primarily through Romania – Taliban’s second heroin prohibition is, according to CIA, a “tragedy for world”

- Same judge that for years prosecuted Andrew Tate per US request, has disqualified seasoned diplomat Calin Georgescu, who had 63+ % advantage over NATO candidate -- two days before elections -- same pattern as in Syria (most brutal economic sanctions recorded), Georgia, Libya,

- The critical role of Romania-Pakistan in State Dept’s war against Russia

Note: ALL these and other horrible crimes were during Pompeo/Trump administration

Once again – HIGHLY recommended

https://x.com/MikeBenzCyber/status/1865461625609675257

Nine O’Clock Moscow Time's avatar

Thanks. I don’t have the Twatter but I’ve subscribed to his YouTube clips channel, and want to listen to his recent appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast. Good tip.

Pramod's avatar

The idea that the present catastrophic outcome in Syria could have been averted had Mr Assad ceded substantial concessions to Turkey's proxies is an untested one. No one can say for sure whether it would have worked, unless of course it had actually been implemented and then the world had subsequently gotten to witness the consequences. However, one can hazard reasonable guesses from the examples of Libya and Iraq which came before Syria. Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi had made a 180 degree about turn in the 2000's, burying all differences with the west and opening all sectors of the economy in his country for exploitation by western MNC's in an all out effort to appease the USA and forge strong friendship. However, the west did not stop at that, and ransacked Libya via an outright invasion by NATO aided by its Al Qaeda affiliates, and also made a horrible example of Gaddaffi himself. For, the Zio-oligarchic MNC's whom Gaddaffi had so generously allowed into his country, were not contented with swallowing simply the chunks legally surrendered to them by Gaddaffi on a platter, but instead they wanted total colonial ownership over all of Libyan land. Likewise, Israel has unleashed hell and mayhem on Syria in pursuit of its ambition to annex the Levant to Greater Israel via the agency of Erdogan's hounds reeked in paleolithic savagery. But what does this portend for the Arab lackeys of Anerica in the broader Saracenic peninsula. Less than half a decade down the line, I can imagine the entire region from Jordan through Saudi Arabia to Oman becoming an anarchic synctitium of brute jihadists devoid of national affiliation, as a spillover from the HTS and its ISIL affiliates whose members include hundreds of Jordanians and Saudis besides thousands of Central Asians and Turkic Uieghurs; in turn evoking very stern response from the rulers of those Sheikhdoms in terms of curtailing of civil liberties and repressive measures on the populace, transforming the region into 20th century embodiments of the rampant social injustice and exploitation of masses typified by biblical Sodom and Gomorrah. To forestall such a state of affairs from having ramifications inside Israel, I can well nigh imagine the IDF and NATO warplanes operating out of Nevatim in Israel and Incirlik in Turkey, embarking on intermittent carpet bombing sprees including likely use of nuclear bombs over the entire Arabian peninsula, killing all or any Arabs without discrimination, butchering the rich and poor alike, in the belief that such tactics will prove effective deterrents for scaring the jihadis from looking in the direction of Israel. Welcome to Riyadh, It's 9 0' clock Arabian time, 2030 under shadow of the bombs and guns, Reality Museum of 8th century AD the era of the Assassins. Waking up to Mass rape, torture by the fire and hacksaw on the ground, and raining brimstone from the skies above. Folks asked for it ! Theoretically, the recursive cycle of bombings from the sky alternating with jihad on the ground could iterate ad infinitum, until one grand moment when Islam and Arabs would have become history in the Saracenic Peninsula for good, with far-reaching ramifications globally.

Deplorable Commissar's avatar

Dont forget the re-building of the temple. A "defensive" border has to be put into place to prevent any uppity Muslims from marching on Israhell once that occurs.

William Tyndale's avatar

How to stop the Greater Israel Project? Send Jews back to the Russian Pale for rehabilitation.

Pramod's avatar

After the victory of NATO-backed foreign legionaries among Al Qaeda insurgents had become almost certain in Libya, erstwhile Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, then a firm believer in rapprochment with the west, suddenly announced the unexpected decision of banning Libyan leader Muammar Gaddaffi and his family from landing on Russian soil, in tune with the prevailing general western consensus of denouncing Mr Gaddaffi and the British decision to divest him of diplomatic immunity and declare him a war criminal. For the record, even the Assad government denied Nr Gaddaffi landing rights in Syria.

History does not take very long to come full circle.

Much of the discussion centering on Mr Assad and Syria after his exit, becomes largely academic and superfluous, unless practical lessons are drawn and implemented whilst there is still time. Otherwise, the western noose is closing in on Russia by the passing day, howsoever undignified though it may be to admit it.

MarcoPolo's avatar

People don't realize the shady history of Gaddafi. Iran extremely hated the family and praised the overthrow of Gaddafi. Russia doesn't have much love for Gaddafi family either too!

Saddam and Gaddafi families were originally installed or helped by the USA. It's hard to fully trust dictators who can flip flop. Right now, I can see that Erdogan will be the next one in line to suffer the same fate as all others.

Pramod's avatar

I know the history of Gaddaffi and am aware of how he had denounced Russia in the early part of his burgeoning political career, especially in his rejoinder to President Fidel Castro at NAM summit in Africa, and his bombastic lament about "Russian communism" being the single scourge of Arab societies worse than American imperialism during his conversations with Arab leaders. And the execution of a prominent Lebanese Shiite leader by Gaddafi after the Libyan supremo had got triggered by the Shiite clerics protests against Gaddaffi's attempts to place the blueprint of his political philosophy, the so called Green book, on same pedestal with the Quran. Mr Gaddaffi might have had his failings, which are beyond the scope of my expertise in any case. The point is not about the moral compass of any one person, but on the preparedness or lack of it on part of Russia to face the inevitable onslought coming soon in full throttle from its civilisational enemies in the west. As much as anything else such as technological or military prowess, the will to stand up against hegemony of the collective west counts among the most decisive variables. Let the world hope for the best.

MarcoPolo's avatar

Russia and China are well equipped on this matter than you and I. The West wages a civilizational war is more of a propaganda war to keep those useless nerds employed in various state departments and bureaucracies across the West. In reality, The West only cares about profits in the short term ways. They choose to fight certain wars to get quick profits or recoupment of investments within two or three years. Unfortunately, the top ruling elites in the West are not actual Westerners these days but foreign elites with multiple passports who enjoy luxury vacation in the West and make money in their own non-Western countries. The fall of Syria is more like Global South elites backstabbing its own to make money or extract any political perk.

Russia and China found BRICS to get rid of the most annoying problem called "sanctions" that some weaker elites in the West (mostly foreign) use against stronger elites across the world. The solution is the global transactions systems and fintech solutions that will dwarf SWIFT. It's far better for each country to use their own currencies to trade because each nation's monetary policy is not compatible with each other (Eurozone crisis is an example). The USD is no longer hegemonic as it delegates into just another strong currency in the basket of strong currencies. In the future, all elites will move to cryptocurrencies which the US has already done to prepare to abandon USD hegemony policies.

Pramod's avatar

Interesting input, Mr Marco Palo. If it is not inconvenient, could you please elucidate a bit more on the "Global South Elites" ensconced in USA who have "backstabbed" and "sacrificed" Syria on the altar of their greed for making quick profits on their investments. Because such people should be exposed, ideally.

MarcoPolo's avatar

Yanis Varoufakis really explains this better than me.

https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2023/02/03/us-imperialism-dollar-hegemony-yanis-varoufakis/

The USD is very convenient for global elites in all nations to loot and exploit people. The fun is going to end with the US starts abusing its power to sanction. China and Russia really want to dethrone the Deep State elites in the West or across the world who abuse the power of sanctions. That's really what matter!

Pramod's avatar

Pan-Turkic jihad against Russia already in the offing in post Soviet states, courtesy NATO, Pentagon, Qatar and Gulf zombies. Plans already underway since 2 years ago. To manifest anytime soon. Big deal saving home-turf!

Feral Finster's avatar

What makes you think that anyone outside of Russia wants to do a deal?

Pramod's avatar

Indeed, the west now does not give a damn about any of Russia's "concerns" or "advice" on post-Assad Syria, which is now going to fall on deaf ears, almost as if it were someone talking to himself. From the perspective of Israel and the west, Russia is effectively "out" from Syria, unless it demonstrates the obstinacy and fortitude to stay put in its bases by drawing a fig leaf from the American rule book. Israel and its vassals in the EU and US do not care a fig about the moral indefensibility of evicting Russian military bases from Syria, so it is not going to serve Russian interests at all by appealing to the western conscience.

Guidothekp's avatar

Do we know who these rebels are and how they organized themselves so efficiently this time and who's funding this? If US is behind this, why will they allow Russians to maintain their bases? Very confusing. Thanks.