The Ukrainian Conflict is expected to transform from the NATO-Russian proxy war that it presently is into a Hybrid World War between the Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente in the event that Beijing is forced by NATO into arming Moscow, which it would only do as a last resort for ensuring its long-term national security interests aimed at averting its partner's potential "Balkanization" in the event that its special operation begins suffering serious setbacks.
A US-Initiated Chinese-Western “Decoupling” Is Likely
“China Compellingly Appears To Be Recalibrating Its Approach To The NATO-Russian Proxy War”, the reasons behind which can be read more about in the preceding hyperlink, so much so that it might potentially arm Russia in the event that NATO goes all-out in arming Kiev with modern weaponry. Biden, CIA chief Burns, Secretary of State Blinken, and German Foreign Minister Baerbock all warned China against doing so by very strongly hinting that it would be sanctioned to some extent or another if it did.
It should be remembered per the hyperlinked analysis at the beginning of this piece that China would only dispatch lethal aid to Russia in the event that NATO’s dispatch thereof to Kiev eventually results in shifting the military-strategic dynamics against Moscow. The People’s Republic would rather be sanctioned by the US-led West’s Golden Billion than risk its northern neighbor’s “Balkanization” in the worst-case scenario that both President Putin and his predecessor Medvedev recently warned about.
Should China be forced by the abovementioned circumstances into arming Russia, then it would certainly be sanctioned by the same de facto New Cold War bloc that provoked it into doing this as a last resort to ensure its national security interests as explained. Targeted restrictions against the specific companies involved could mitigate the damage to Chinese-European relations, but the US might coerce its vassals into imposing more far-reaching ones for the purpose of provoking a rapid “decoupling”.
India Would Maintain The Balance Between Both Blocs
Just like China believes that it could survive even the most maximum sanctions against it in the worst-case scenario, so too does the Golden Billion believe that it could survive the rapid “decoupling” between them the US might set into motion for self-interested reasons. Neither would countenance their respective courses of action, China possibly arming Russia if NATO provokes it into doing so and the West already threatening sanctions should it do so, if they thought otherwise.
To be absolutely clear, both China and the West – especially the EU – would suffer in the event that the US initiates a rapid “decoupling” between them, but it wouldn’t lead to either of them collapsing. Nevertheless, globalization would be dealt its final deathblow as well as related institutions like the G20. In such a scenario, India could lead a third pole of influence representing the Global South in order to help developing countries balance between the Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente.
Seeing as how it already facilitates the oil trade between Russia and the West, it’s predictable that India would play a similar role vis-à-vis China and the West when it comes to facilitating their real-sector economic trade and especially the chip trade in spite of sanctions. About that second-mentioned sphere, China’s ace up its sleeve for preventing any serious kinetic escalation against it would remain its potential to destroy Taiwan’s chip factories and thus freeze the global economy for the indefinite future.
The Taiwanese & Myanmar Scenarios
That island is the world’s forge for these indispensable components since it’s responsible for producing 65% of its semiconductors and a whopping 90% of its advanced chips. The modern global economy’s disproportionate dependence on Taiwanese factories in spite of key players’ like China, South Korea, and the US’ ongoing diversification efforts can therefore serve as a means of regulating proxy war competition between the Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente due to Beijing’s Damocles’ sword.
On the topic of proxy wars, it would be foreseeable in the US-initiated Chinese-Western “decoupling” scenario that the US will seek to replicate the Ukrainian model somewhere in the Asia-Pacific against China, with Myanmar being the most likely battleground. It already had the world’s longest-running civil war prior to the latest phase thereof that broke out in early February 2021 following the military’s reassertion of control over the country.
Furthermore, Myanmar is adjacent to China, which thus means that its Western-exacerbated civil war is capable of churning out countless Hybrid War threats that could risk spilling over the border into historically diverse Yunnan Province. In the unlikely event that Western proxies win, Myanmar could host their military bases, including “missile defense” systems that secretly function as offensive ones for eroding China’s second-strike capabilities just like Ukraine’s NATO ones could have eroded Russia’s.
Another point about Myanmar’s proxy war importance is that it also abuts India and Thailand. The first of them could be targeted by Western-exacerbated threats emanating from there just like China could in order to punish India for its independent foreign policy, thus making good on Color Revolution mastermind George Soros’ de facto declaration of Hybrid War against it in mid-February. As for the second, it’s a US mutual defense partner and Major Non-NATO Ally that can keep the proxy war going.
The US Might Try To Divide-And-Rule ASEAN & China
After all, had it presumably not been for Thailand functioning as the logistics base for arming and supplying Myanmar’s “pro-democracy rebels”, then the latter would likely already have been defeated. If it’s coerced by the US into playing a greater role in a potentially exacerbated Myanmarese Civil War aimed at functioning as a Ukrainian-like proxy war against China, then Thailand could become the regional point of military convergence between the US, NATO, Australia, and even Japan.
Moreover, the escalation of this conflict to that proportion and for the previously mentioned military-strategic purposes could create the pretext for further widening intra-ASEAN differences on this sensitive issue per the US’ divide-and-rule policy of pressuring the bloc into disengaging from China. The second scenario could be advanced in the event that China is forced by US-shaped circumstances into militarily intervening in Myanmar similar to how Russia was forced into intervening in Ukraine.
Just like Moscow’s ongoing special operation was exploited as the pretext for provoking a US-initiated Russian-European “decoupling”, so too could Beijing’s own speculative one in that scenario be exploited as the pretext for provoking a US-initiated Chinese-ASEAN “decoupling”. This doesn’t mean that it would succeed, but just that this possibility aligns with the US’ interests and is likely to be pursued if it seeks to replicate the Ukrainian model against China in the Asia-Pacific and in particular in Myanmar.
“The Lesser Evil”
For as challenging as these interconnected scenarios may be for China’s security, they’re still much more manageable than the one related to Russia’s “Balkanization” in the aftermath of losing its proxy war with NATO in Ukraine. Moreover, the US’ replication of the Ukrainian model in Myanmar could also inadvertently serve to repair some of the distrust between China and India since both would be threatened by a Western-exacerbated proxy war there.
About their complicated ties, the “Great Bifurcation” that the US might initiate in the event that China is forced by NATO into arming Russia might even improve Sino-Indo relations irrespective of the previously explained Myanmar scenario. That’s because the ammunition, drones, and whatever other equipment the People’s Republic might dispatch to its strategic partner wouldn’t be much use in a conflict with the US, Japan, Taiwan, or the Philippines, but only in one with neighboring India.
If China makes the fateful move of arming Russia, then it would be doing so with the expectation of continuing to freeze its unresolved border dispute with India and after having been reassured by Moscow that Delhi won’t be co-opted by Washington to open up a hot proxy war front in the Himalayas. Those military-strategic calculations coupled with the high likelihood that India would facilitate Chinese-Western trade in spite of their possible “decoupling” raises hopes for the future of their ties.
To wrap it all up, the world would drastically change if China was forced by NATO into arming Russia as a last resort for preemptively ensuring its security by averting its northern neighbor’s “Balkanization”. The US is expected to coerce its European vassals into sanctioning China with the intent of provoking a rapid “decoupling” between them prior to meddling much more in Myanmar in order to exploit it as a means for “containing” the People’s Republic along the lines of the Ukrainian model.
Amidst the “Great Bifurcation” of the world between the Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente, India would rise as the leader of the third pole of influence comprising the entire Global South. Other Great Powers like Iran and Turkiye will remain independent, neutral, and strong, but none will have the global importance in this scenario that India would, especially with respect to how it could facilitate trade between both de facto New Cold War blocs.
Considering this, the Ukrainian Conflict could therefore be expected to transform from the NATO-Russian proxy war that it presently is into a Hybrid World War between the Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente in the event that Beijing is forced by NATO into arming Moscow. Everything about the economy, International Relations, and military planning would drastically change to reflect this state of grand strategic affairs, which would be predicated to last for the indefinite future barring black swans.
The "decoupling" of the US from the Chinese economy has in fact already begun. The goal that was set by Peter Navarro, adviser to then-President Trump and author of numerous racist and anti-Chinese libels, accelerated with Biden and the ongoing sanctions and trade war.
As a result, various companies in the technology sector, including those from Taiwan, have become involved in nearshoring to establish themselves in Mexico and other countries. In this regard, it should be remembered that nearly a year ago, on the occasion of the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, President Amlo of Mexico emphasized that it was necessary to create a "continental free trade zone" (the dream of the neoliberals in Washington and Mexico since the Bush administration) to "compete against other powers". One more example of why reformist and "center-left" or "progressive" governments are so limited in Latin America.