Medvedev’s Hawkish Tweet After Haniyeh’s Assassination Doesn’t Reflect Russian Policy

Some mistakenly interpreted this as Russian approval for Iran “escalating to de-escalate”.

Former Russian President and incumbent Deputy Chair of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev made a hawkish post on X after Haniyeh’s assassination. In his words, “The knot is tightening in the Middle East. Sorry for the innocent lives lost. They are but hostages of a disgusting state: the USA. Meanwhile, it’s clear to everyone that a full-scale war is the only way to a shaky peace in the region.” Some interpreted this as Russian approval for Iran “escalating to de-escalate”, but they’re hugely mistaken.  

Medvedev’s role since the special operation has been as an ultra-nationalist pressure valve at home and among Russia’s supporters abroad, the “bad cop” to Putin’s “good cop”. He often says the most outlandish things in order to make headlines, which might partially be intended as a psy-op against the West per the “Madman Theory”. Nevertheless, little of what he says ever happens, and he’s proven himself to be an unreliable observer. His current role is solely in the realm of perception management.

For example, he infamously tweeted in late May that those who attend the next month’s Swiss talks “are abandoning the equidistant stand and taking sides right with the bandera political regime”, ominously adding that “such actions will be duly evaluated by Russia, and will definitely influence our relationship in the future. We will remember that.” That was yet another inaccurate reflection of Russian policy since Prime Minister Modi was feted as a celebrity by Putin in early July despite India attending the talks.

This analysis here explains why “Modi’s Trip To Moscow Was Much More Important Than Most Observers Realize”, which boils down to it representing the culmination of Russia’s recalibrated Asian strategy back to its balancing/pragmatic roots and away from its flirtation with pivoting to China.  Likewise, Medvedev’s latest tweet also doesn’t reflect the reality of Russian policy either since it was disproven by two Russian diplomats, whose exact words will now be shared.

Foreign Ministry deputy spokesman Andrey Nastasyin said in a briefing that “we urge all parties involved to display restraint and refrain from steps that might lead to a dramatic degradation of the security situation in the region and provoke a large-scale armed confrontation.” Russia’s First Deputy Envoy to the UN Dmitry Polyansky then said during an emergency UNSC meeting that “Such attempts to drag Iran into the regional confrontation destabilize the already highly charged atmosphere in the region.”

Quite clearly, while Russia expects Iran to retaliate, it hopes that its response won’t escalate the de facto Israeli-Iranian regional proxy war to the point of “mutually assured destruction”. This is a far cry from Medvedev’s saber-rattling, who literally called for a “full-scale war” as “the only way to a shake peace”. Regardless of whatever his intent was in posting such a provocative tweet, it risks fueling anti-Russian propaganda by being spun by his country’s opponents as supposed “proof of Russian warmongering”.

Even so, he’ll likely continue playing the role of an ultra-nationalist pressure valve at home and among Russia’s supporters abroad since this function remains important for perception management purposes. There’s always a chance that his employment of the “Madman Theory” might scare some Western policymakers into backing off of whatever they might be planning, while it delights members of the Alt-Media Community who regularly fantasize about the defeat of their geopolitical enemies.