Modi & Trump Will Talk About More Than Just Trade & Military Topics During Their Summit

The convergence of their shared worldviews and the close friendship between their leaders increases the chances that India can convince the US to lend it support on the two other very sensitive issues of Russia and Khalistan.

Indian Prime Minister Modi is expected to travel to the US next week from 12-14 February, during which time their talks on trade and military topics will take precedence over all else. Regarding the first, Trump previously criticized Modi for his country’s use of tariffs in spite of them being close friends, yet India just slashed its peak tariffs and there’s now talk of them starting negotiations on a free trade pact. As for the second, they have a shared interest in militarily containing China, which is Trump’s foreign policy priority.

The second Trump Administration is also considered to be Indophilic so this makes it even more likely that they’ll agree to closer military cooperation, perhaps also a big-ticket arms sale or at least the start of talks on such, and peacefully smoothing over whatever rough edges they have on trade. The US considers India to be as a partial economic-military counterweight to China, with the key word being partial since it might never be able to play this role completely, but what it does fulfill is still important.

The Biden Administration placed a greater emphasis on perceived democracy and human rights issues in India, however, which damaged mutual trust following its harsh statements and alleged meddling. By contrast, the second Trump Administration practices a Neo-Realist policy as recently articulated by new Secretary of State Marco Rubio in his interview with Megyn Kelly, which takes the form of pragmatic interests-driven engagement. Modi’s India has the same approach so they should work well together.

The convergence of their shared worldviews and the close friendship between their leaders increases the chances that India can convince the US to lend it support on the two other very sensitive issues of Russia and Khalistan. The first concerns the Biden Administration’s pressure upon India for expanding trade with Russia while the second involves the blind eye that it turned towards the activities of Delhi-designated terrorists on American soil. Modi likely hopes to resolve both issues with Trump next week.

Beginning with Russia, he’ll probably try to convince his counterpart that India’s expanded trade with Russia preemptively averted the latter’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China, which could have turned Russia into China’s raw materials reserve for turbocharging its superpower rise. Accordingly, it’s in the US’ interest to support India’s role as Russia’s economic counterweight to China, to which end it’d be wise to waive secondary sanctions on their energy trade and their real-sector trade across Iran.

In connection with Khalistan, which refers to radical Sikhs’ campaign for Punjabi independence, Modi might pass along a detailed dossier to Trump documenting their North American groups’ involvement in the drug trade that Trump’s serious about crushing. Canada’s lackadaisical attitude towards these crimes, which Khalistani gangs have been implicated in, was the pretext for the US’ temporarily suspended trade war. Modi can therefore also try to get Trump to ensure that Trudeau cracks down on these groups too.

The positive resolution of these issues, the first via sanctions waivers extended on an anti-Chinese basis and the second by neutralizing the threat that these groups pose by arresting their drug-trafficking members who launder those proceeds to fund terrorism inside of India, would be a great achievement. Strengthening India’s role as a partial counterweight to China together with repairing the damage that the Biden Administration dealt to mutual trust benefits both of them and aligns with Trump’s agenda.