Prigozhin Is Practically Forcing Putin To Choose Between Him & Gerasimov
Delaying a decisive resolution of the objectively existing rivalry between Russia’s Defense Ministry and the Wagner Group is unlikely since that would simply prolong their dispute at the possible expense of Russia’s objective national security interests.
The long-running rivalry between Russia’s Defense Ministry (DM) and the Wagner Group is rapidly reaching its climax as a result of Yevgeny Prigozhin practically forcing President Putin to choose between him and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov after his latest video. The chief of that private military company doubled down on his prior claims that elite elements are subverting the special operation, specifically singling out Gerasimov as allegedly being one of the culprits. Here’s what he said:
“We were simply blatantly lied to (about the earlier promise of full logistical support). This morning the Chief of the General Staff [Valery Gerasimov] personally corrected all the figures and reduced them tenfold. This is very bad. If it goes on like this, we won't be able to fight.
If all the tasks are performed in order to deceive the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, either the Supreme Commander-in-Chief will tear your a** up or the Russian people, who will be very upset if the war is lost.
Our enemy today is not the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine), but the Russian bureaucrat. Especially the near-war one. The shells are lying in warehouses, they are resting there. The industry is producing these reserves and instead of giving them to the troops, they are being stockpiled in warehouses. No one knows what for. Instead of spending a shell to kill the enemy, they kill our soldiers.”
His dramatic accusations can’t be independently verified, but the fact that they’re being shared proves that there are still very serious problems between the DM and Wagner in spite of deputy commander of the special operation General Sergey Surovikin reportedly being designated to manage affairs between them. It also goes without saying that his latest remarks arguably resemble insubordination, if not worse, which means that Prigozhin might have put himself at risk of severe punishment.
“The Alt-Media Community Needs To Stop Overdosing On Copium & Finally Recognize Reality” with respect to the DM-Wagner rivalry veritably existing. Key influencers can no longer ignore this development or continue insulting their audience’s intelligence by concocting “5D chess” conspiracy theories about it. This is a serious problem that must be calmly acknowledged and responsibly reacted to by all influencers otherwise they discredit themselves and raise questions about their motives all along.
It's difficult to describe the position that President Putin has abruptly been placed into as anything other than a dilemma since he’s practically being forced into a zero-sum choice between Prigozhin and Gerasimov. The Russian leader prefers creative solutions that retain a balance of interests between all parties when dealing with internal affairs and international ones. That’s all but impossible in this instance, however, after the extremely serious accusations that Prigozhin just publicly put forth.
There are thus two likely scenarios for how everything might soon unfold: either the Wagner chief will be court martialed and his private military company possibly disbanded in the aftermath; or the Chief of General Staff will at the very least be overruled by the President with all that entails about the veracity of Prigozhin’s claims. Delaying a decisive resolution of the DM-Wagner rivalry is unlikely since that would simply prolong their dispute at the possible expense of Russia’s objective national security interests.
Damn, I put this in the wrong place. It was intended as a reply to your comment, "It'll likely have a very powerful impact on events."
Yeah, it's about what Eisenhower said in his goodbye speech (which he worked on with his brother for more than half a year, by the way, so there was some thought behind it): 'Beware the military-industrial complex!'.
"Despite his military background and being the only general to be elected president in the 20th century, he warned the nation with regard to the corrupting influence of what he describes as the 'military-industrial complex'."
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eisenhower%27s_farewell_address#:~:text=We%20cannot%20mortgage%20the%20material,the%20insolvent%20phantom%20of%20tomorrow.)
And what do YOU think: a) is Gerasimov holding back supplies to ensure stocks are adequate for the inevitably glorious and much-vaunted 'Spring (Counter)offensive', or b) is he being paid to have them gather dust in storage while more Russian troops than necessary die as a result, as a precursor to serious humiliation if not outright defeat (which could, in line with the now time-honoured military industrial complex economic model (of which the Wagner Group is a significant representation, by the way) make a few people a lot of money); OR c) can they just not make enough ammo fast enough?
The North Koreans have a lot of shells. They've got so many, in fact, that there's no point making any more. If hostilities were to break out on the Korean peninsula, the North would flatten every population centre with more than two dogs and three cats in the South within half an hour. They're really good at making shells. So good, if fact, they haven't bothered making any more of them in a long time, since they moved on to ICBM's... There's a railway bridge over the river from Russia into North Korea. You can see it on Google maps. Why isn't there a continuous stream of railway cars chock-a-block full of gleaming, new shells crossing it from the Korean Peninsula on their way to the Ukraine?