Some in the Alt-Media Community have been pushing an old video on social media where Putin says that he doesn’t forgive betrayal, while the Mainstream Media has reminded everyone of US officials’ prior warnings that Prigozhin’s life was in danger. Both camps strongly imply that the Russian leader was responsible for the Wagner chief’s death, but their conspiracy theory doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
If Putin is not behind the death of Prigozhin, is he grateful to those who are? If it is not Putin, for whom Prigozhin never ceased declaring his support, then it had to be Shoigu and/or Gerasimov, whom Prigozhin's mutiny was explicitly directed toward overthrowing. Most importantly, how will this affect the Russian combat effectiveness in Ukraine? Wagner was critical to the victory on Bakhmut. Is the future performance of the war by RF troops going to be negatively impacted by Prigozhin's asssassination (which it is how his death will be perceived, whether it was that or not)?
I don't think he's happy that this happened at all. Prigozhin was controllable after late June's events and his group returned to being Russian state assets.
As for who did it, I don't think Shoigu/Gerasimov were responsible either. From their respective, whatever threat he previously posed to their leadership was already dealt with.
I don't believe this will significantly affect Wagner's operations anywhere, whether in Africa or in the SMO zone.
I think it wouldn't be all that relevant in any case because:
1) Wagner's African activities and involvement in the SMO probably won't be hampered by Prigozhin's plane crash and the loss of other elite members
And
2) Precedent suggests that Russia will just bomb a Ukrainian command post somewhere and not do anything more since it barely reacted to the Kremlin attack
If Putin is not behind the death of Prigozhin, is he grateful to those who are? If it is not Putin, for whom Prigozhin never ceased declaring his support, then it had to be Shoigu and/or Gerasimov, whom Prigozhin's mutiny was explicitly directed toward overthrowing. Most importantly, how will this affect the Russian combat effectiveness in Ukraine? Wagner was critical to the victory on Bakhmut. Is the future performance of the war by RF troops going to be negatively impacted by Prigozhin's asssassination (which it is how his death will be perceived, whether it was that or not)?
I don't think he's happy that this happened at all. Prigozhin was controllable after late June's events and his group returned to being Russian state assets.
As for who did it, I don't think Shoigu/Gerasimov were responsible either. From their respective, whatever threat he previously posed to their leadership was already dealt with.
I don't believe this will significantly affect Wagner's operations anywhere, whether in Africa or in the SMO zone.
"While no evidence has yet to [sic] emerge[ed]..."
It will; that's not the question.
The questions are: 1) will we see it, and 2) we we be able to perceive, interpret and disseminate it in a healthy manner.
I think it wouldn't be all that relevant in any case because:
1) Wagner's African activities and involvement in the SMO probably won't be hampered by Prigozhin's plane crash and the loss of other elite members
And
2) Precedent suggests that Russia will just bomb a Ukrainian command post somewhere and not do anything more since it barely reacted to the Kremlin attack