Putin’s Warning About Long-Range Weapons Proves That Escalation Is The West’s Prerogative

The Ukrainian Conflict that the US-led West’s Golden Billion provoked nine years ago, remembering that its origins lie in the fascist coup that they backed in early 2014 which in turn catalyzed the then-Ukrainian Civil War that’s since evolved into an international conflict, has been very destructive. Those like Russia who sincerely want peace as soon as possible must therefore pay very close attention to President Putin’s warning about long-range weapons being given to their proxies in Kiev.

President Putin warned during his annual address on Tuesday that “One thing must be clear to everyone. The longer the range of the Western systems that arrive in Ukraine, the further we will be forced to push the threat away from our borders. It’s obvious.” This proves that escalation in the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine is the West’s prerogative since they can either dispatch such arms and thus provoke Moscow to expand its response or withhold them and thus likely limit the latter’s operations.

The Russian leader clearly articulated the reasons behind his decision to commence the special operation a year ago, namely to defend the integrity of its national security red lines in Ukraine after NATO clandestinely crossed them there as well as protect the people of Donbass from genocide. Other objectives like demilitarizing and denazifying that former Soviet Republic are supplementary to those two primary aforementioned ones.

This being the case and considering the stalemate that largely set in along the Line of Control (LOC) over the past few months (until recently at least), it therefore naturally follows that Russia isn’t interested in expanding the scope of its operations beyond the administrative borders of its new regions. Its rumored upcoming offensive could likely be aimed liberating the rest of those territories together with establishing a so-called “buffer zone” for reducing the reach of Kiev’s NATO-supplied long-range arms.

The Kremlin has signaled its intent to resume peace talks provided that the on-the-ground realities, meaning those former Ukrainian regions’ reunification with Russia, is recognized. The supplementary goals that were previously mentioned related to Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification could potentially prove flexible depending on the course of prospective negotiations, but Russia must absolutely ensure that the rest of its new regions are liberated, which is a non-negotiable goal.

The Ukrainian Conflict that the US-led West’s Golden Billion provoked nine years ago, remembering that its origins lie in the fascist coup that they backed in early 2014 which in turn catalyzed the then-Ukrainian Civil War that’s since evolved into an international conflict, has been very destructive. Those like Russia who sincerely want peace as soon as possible must therefore pay very close attention to President Putin’s warning about long-range weapons being given to their proxies in Kiev.

Regrettably, it appears inevitable that such arms will continue to be sent, and in larger quantities with ever-longer ranges at that. This will inevitably provoke Russia into expanding the focus of its special operation in order to establish the “buffer zone” needed for protecting its pre-2014 territories as well those that democratically joined this Eurasian Great Power since then. The resultant military-strategic dynamics will artificially prolong this proxy war, which will worsen the consequences for the EU.  

Russia would prefer to end it as soon as possible on realistic terms beginning with its opponents recognizing the on-the-ground realities that were earlier described, but will still manage to defend and even arguably further advance its interests even in the scenario of a protracted conflict. The US would obviously take maximum advantage of indefinitely delaying a political resolution to the same proxy war that it provoked by exploiting it to more fully reassert its hegemony over the EU.

The preceding self-interested grand strategic calculations explain why the US is likely to do everything in its power to keep the Ukrainian Conflict raging despite this hamstringing the effectiveness of its long-planned “Pivot to Asia” for more muscularly “containing” China. In that event, observers could expect Europe to remain the most violent New Cold War proxy battleground for the foreseeable future, with all that would entail for its socio-economic and political stability.