The EU Solidified Its Influence In Armenia Ahead Of Next Month’s Elections

Their newly agreed connectivity partnership gives the bloc tangible stakes in Pashinyan’s re-election and ensures that they’ll support whatever measures he resorts to for remaining in power.

Next month’s parliamentary elections in Armenia are shaping up to be a “Battle for Armenia” due to the geopolitical stakes at play. If pro-Western Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party wins, then last August’s “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) will be built with gusto, thus risking Russia’s displacement from the region. That’s because TRIPP isn’t just a trade corridor, but also a NATO military logistics one to Central Asia, and it could be paired with the contentious Trans-Caspian Pipeline.

The injection of more Western economic and military influence along Russia’s southern periphery, including the political influence that comes with them, would amount to the accelerated implementation of Trump’s Neo-Reagan Doctrine for “rolling back” Russian influence there. The aforesaid scenario is dependent on TRIPP, particularly Russia’s inability to monitor shipments across this route to prevent it from turning into a military logistics corridor, which in turn depends on the outcome of June’s elections.

If the nationalist opposition wins, then they’ll likely restore Armenia’s compliance with the last part of November 2020’s Russian-mediated ceasefire regarding Moscow’s responsibility for securing this trade route, the role of which was replaced after TRIPP was agreed to. After all, allowing Armenia to facilitate the Azeri-Turkish Axis’ military logistical plans for Central Asia at NATO’s behest would risk turning their country into a “Neo-Ottoman sanjak”, the socio-cultural consequences of which were described here.

In short, the erasure of Armenia’s multimillennial-long culture might finally become a fait accompli if it’s coerced by Azerbaijan, the EU, and the US into accepting the return of the ~200,000 Azeris who fled during the chaotic Soviet collapse and the descendants as a precondition for regional peace. The nationalist opposition would never agree to that, unlike Pashinyan who’s criticized by them as being the Azeri-Turkish Axis’ proxy, just like they’re unlikely to agree to TRIPP’s dual military logistics role for them.

Therein lies the reason why Vance earlier visited to endorse Pashinyan and the EU just solidified its influence in Armenia through the connectivity partnership that they agreed to in Yerevan on the sidelines of the latest European Political Community summit. The West already manufactured the false narrative of alleged Russian meddling in next month’s elections to delegitimize Pashinyan’s possible loss while the EU sent so-called “disinformation experts” there in a bid to make this even more believable.

Simply put, the nationalist opposition’s potential victory – driven by the patriotic concerns that were described, including Pashinyan’s dual crackdowns on the Apostolic Church and the opposition alike, as well as anti-corruption ones – would foil the West’s geopolitical plans, ergo their need to help Pashinyan. To that end, they’re not only endorsing him and eschewing criticism of his anti-democratic crackdowns, but tangibly solidifying their influence through the EU’s new partnership, TRIPP, and other US deals.

The West now has tangible stakes in Pashinyan’s victory so they’re not expected to accept his defeat. The opposition’s likely rejection of TRIPP’s dual military logistics role and the return of so Azeris make them the West’s enemies even though they’d likely respect all other Pashinyan-era deals. With this in mind, the West will likely ignore whatever fraud Pashinyan might commit to remain in power as well as back whatever measures he authorizes for breaking up protests afterwards, including shoot-to-kill orders.