The US is forming two Asian trilaterals with itself and Japan that are centered on the Philippines in Southeast Asia and South Korea in Northeast Asia.
I don't understand all this 'high level' geopolitical/military posturing and manoeuvring. Seems bloody stupid and dangerous to me. Big idiot bullies swaggering around the place on my money destroying things here and there. 'Contain China'. What? Physically contain from land expansion? I don't think China wants to expand does it? In that way.
But in another way: influence in the world, growth, advancement: it wants to expand. And here's the point isn't it, it is doing it. It is expanding at great speed, together with all of BRICS.
There's about two billion people right there who're all advancing as quickly as they can go with a bright future ahead of them barring accidents.
And there's the malevolent USA with a mere 350 million dupes trying to stop it all.
I'm not a big fan of Dune, but truer words were never spoken. The spice in this case is world energy supplies and routes. Control those and you control world economic growth and military alliances, at least that's how it worked in the past.
China has a similar adage to the above: The Mandate of Heaven. Simply put, this means that the people's acceptance of their government is measured by how well that government provides for the people. Chinese people could care less what form their government takes as long as it meets the needs of the people. This is understood at all levels of their society and is one of the great misunderstandings of how the West regards China. China has over a billion mouths to feed. How they do that is less important than the fact that they get it done.
Thanks for that. I'd not known about 'the mandate of heaven'. Seeing the phrase I would never have put that interpretation on it. It is a good one.
Yep, the 'energy' today is world trade. Perhaps it always has been?
The archeologists keep telling us of finds in 'this' country that come from 'that' country way, way back before we had any idea that people got around much far less actually traded.
And when we look back at our recent shameful past since WWII and the years of the American shameful hegemon we find that's what characterises it, isn't it: they took command of trade.
And they still try to do it.
I find it impossible to comprehend how they can do what they do.
For they mandate 'sanctions'. Literally thousands of them.
What they all are is prohibitions on trade. Every one.
But trade is a two edged sword. It profits both parties else they wouldn't do it.
So when you 'sanction him' and refuse to trade with him you suffer too. You lose your trading partner. Like a spoilt brat who refuses to play with his peers and condemns himself to isolation without playmates.
This is the level that America operates at and it's staggering that's true.
But i find it even more staggering that so many nations allow themselves to be crippled by using the same ploy just as they're told to by the USA. How can they be so stupid and so compliant?
But the evidence is there. Can't be refuted. We see for example Germany watch in silence as the USA destroys the cheap energy that made Germany what it was. Effectively cut Germany's throat: in public. The Germans do nothing. Say nothing.
Then Russia offers them a lifeline: there is one pipe still operative.
The USA forbids its use. The German's comply and here we are; today the nation is bleeding to death.
Yes it is. What I think we're seeing unfold is a slow collapse of the empire the USA inherited from the British post WWII. It's now in its final death throes, the only thing holding it together is acceptance of the US dollar as a reserve currency, which is in the process of being replaced. Hopefully the loss of empire will be less painful than what Russia went through in the 90's or what Britain suffered in the 40's and 50's.
To get a big picture understanding of global conflict you only have to look at some maps of major oil and gas deposits and their transit routes. Wherever you find conflict, you inevitably find either a major gas or oil field, or a significant transit route. The basic idea, going all the way back to WWI (which can be characterized by the emergence of oil to replace coal as a transportation fuel) is to control the world's energy resources, either via direct ownership at the wellhead, or the ability to interdict shipping routes or pipelines.
I include a few maps as examples, but do some searches on your own for different regions and see what you find. Wherever there's war or civil strife, there's almost always a pipeline or major energy resource involved.
In the current context, future Russian energy supplies to China are a game changer in the sense that it will be useless to interdict the energy sea route from the Middle East to China. China is expanding its naval presence to protect that route for now, which is also vital for commercial shipping, but energy and later commercial goods will soon be travelling by land across the New Silk Road currently being built, thus negating or at least reducing the risk to China's economy.
Read up on Mackinder's Heartland Theory to get an idea of the stakes.
The West tipped its hand by destroying Nordstream2. That was an act of desperation meant to prevent the emergence of a German-Russian energy/technology nexus - same motive as WWII. However, Russia has a new partner to replace Germany, and that's why the focus on China.
Ironically much of the technology and manufacturing output of China (which they trade for energy) was provided by the USA over the last few decades. China followed the example of Japan in capturing western markets, first with cheap consumer goods, then moving up the value chain to displace technology and engineering products that were formerly major exports of the USA and EU. Japan also figures in this equation with much of their manufacturing now being done in China. The good thus produced are not the shoddy products you find in Walmart. They are made to Japanese standards which costs more, but Japanese consumers prefer quality to price. Clothing is one example. First rate threads made in China can be bought in Japan, so if you visit Japan, travel light and buy lots of clothes when you get there!
As a footnote, also pay attention to the electrical distribution networks from an economic and military standpoint. Right now the Baltic states are agitating for a new Maginot Line to prevent a Russian invasion, which is absurd on its face. Why would Russia invade those sad-ass countries when they can just knock out their energy grid, as is being done in Ukraine? Pipelines are one thing, but if you can't move the electricity around you'll be eating cold Spam by candlelight.
Once again this is the maintenance of the empire-past. Philippine was a US colony. And I have to say to some extent, USA had managed the colony well (minus the initial batch of massacres of Philippine people). Japanese occupation itself was not particularly brutal (say, compared to Japanese occupation of China's mainland) Japan did not try to station civilians controls either (very different from Japanese occupation of Kora and Taiwan). US simply does not have enough capacity to handle China alone in western Pacific. The under water listening line from Japan to Okinawa to Taiwan to Luzon is most likely fully operational now. I suspect there is another line from Japan to Iwo Jima to Guam, among others. Simply a matter to make up for the missing effort in the past. However, China's strategy against USA has always been to attack the fortress from within. A defense line in western pacific really does not matter that much. In the short term, US and Japan naval forces are more than a match against PLAN, but PLAN focus is not central Pacific or Australia, but the strategic passages through South China Sea and Malacca Strait. China's sub-borne ICBM are too few to penetrate US air defense anyway.
The New Silk Road and Russian energy to China largely negate the maritime shipping routes. A pipeline from Iran to China is also in the cards, thus the overthrow of Imran Khan in Pakistan, whose territory it will eventually pass through if the Taliban don't cut them a better deal.
On the prospect of actual war, I think that's out of the question, at least as far as land based conflict is concerned. How do you invade China, and once there, how do you maintain your supply lines? Then there's the problem of fighting millions of patriotic Chinese on home turf. Vietnam X 100.
Also, the idea of China invading Taiwan is ridiculous. Half the population of Taiwan is just fine with reunification, and the two economies are already integrated to the point that powerful oxen will be gored on the Taiwan side if conflict breaks out, so not gonna happen. It's just another US MIC narrative to keep the graft flowing. It's all about the Benjamins on the US side. The US has already been exposed as a paper tiger, it just hasn't sunk in yet where Americans are concerned. The rest of the world sees it though.
Russia's gas/oil pipeline to China's northeast is absolutely essential but incomplete. The New Silk Road burns transportation energy at 3x or 4x rate than shipping. So the land routes for China are back-ups, not the optimal solutions.
As for the US and Philippine's intentions, they surely do not intend to invade China. US hopes that a prolonged military conflict will strangle China internally, but they will get a Korean War effect: that war helped China to pacify internally and eliminated pretty much all the remaining guerilla warfare elements of the Nationalist government.
Your judgment about the people of Taiwan is very true. While Some Americans today still say "better dead than red", most Taiwanese would say "better money than war". Chinese culture is entirely different from that of Russian's. For whatever Ukrainians claims their differences, they are Russians culturally and fight tenaciously to the end. Chinese usually don't, unless there is a foreign invasion. In other words, US military threats simply helps CCP to extend its life.
"Russia's gas/oil pipeline to China's northeast is absolutely essential but incomplete. The New Silk Road burns transportation energy at 3x or 4x rate than shipping. So the land routes for China are back-ups, not the optimal solutions. "
True enough at the moment, and I guess I should have prefaced my remarks with "in the not too distant future...."
At the moment rail traffic over existing lines is mostly powered by diesel, and cost comparisons to seaborne transportation are indeed unfavourable, IF your final destination is the EU. However, a major part of the plan includes developing the economies of the nations along the route, and ships can't go there.
The new rail-lines are being built for high speed trains, both freight and passenger, and the lines will be electrified, the power source being modular nuclear reactors, which will also power industry, businesses and homes along the route, with uranium supplied by Kazakhstan and Russia.
The key to understanding the NSR is that it will eventually replace a large part of the markets China currently depends on. The EU and USA are in the process of impoverishing themselves and poor people don't buy as much stuff. Also, their governments are hostile towards China and Russia, and that's unlikely to change any time soon. So the alternative is to develop new markets, and that will be done by industrializing what Mackinder called the "Heartland" - but just a bit further east than he predicted.
Also, bear in mind that once built, branch lines extending north and south will be just as important as the main route, and much of the goods travelling the system will be short hauls between internal customers. All the resources are there at various internal locations, all that needs to happen is to connect them together.
Ironically, Lyndon LaRouche predicted something like this over 40 years ago and people thought he was crazy.
Building a defensive alliance against an enemy that has no interest in attacking you is the height of stupidity - exemplified by the Baltic States and their demand for a new Maginot Line, but just as notable in every other western aligned nation.
Have these people not understood the new technology? In the same sense as battleships were obsolete post WWII, carrier groups are obsolete today, thanks to advances in missile technology. Even worse from a western standpoint, Russia is now sharing some of its more advanced systems with nations the west considers hostile. What this means is that any attempt to attack from the air using carriers as your base will quickly be eliminated. At present, Russian missiles can reach a carrier group at 1000km distance and there's nothing that can stop them. I imagine China already has this capacity, but soon everyone will. Just keep pushing Russia and that's exactly what will happen, as they've already told you.
My question is : Who is the USA going to use as cannon fodder this time? Taiwan Chinese, Japanese, or Filipinos? Who is after the Ukrainians and Palestinians? This must stop. Now.
I've seen the idea floated of offering citizenship to "dreamers" AKA illegal migrants, by serving in the US military. How likely this is I have no idea, but with the right incentives it could be done and would likely increase the flow of military age men from down south, at least til they start dying in numbers. Then it won't be so attractive.
I don't understand all this 'high level' geopolitical/military posturing and manoeuvring. Seems bloody stupid and dangerous to me. Big idiot bullies swaggering around the place on my money destroying things here and there. 'Contain China'. What? Physically contain from land expansion? I don't think China wants to expand does it? In that way.
But in another way: influence in the world, growth, advancement: it wants to expand. And here's the point isn't it, it is doing it. It is expanding at great speed, together with all of BRICS.
There's about two billion people right there who're all advancing as quickly as they can go with a bright future ahead of them barring accidents.
And there's the malevolent USA with a mere 350 million dupes trying to stop it all.
Look ludicrous to me.
He who controls the spice controls the universe!
I'm not a big fan of Dune, but truer words were never spoken. The spice in this case is world energy supplies and routes. Control those and you control world economic growth and military alliances, at least that's how it worked in the past.
China has a similar adage to the above: The Mandate of Heaven. Simply put, this means that the people's acceptance of their government is measured by how well that government provides for the people. Chinese people could care less what form their government takes as long as it meets the needs of the people. This is understood at all levels of their society and is one of the great misunderstandings of how the West regards China. China has over a billion mouths to feed. How they do that is less important than the fact that they get it done.
Thanks for that. I'd not known about 'the mandate of heaven'. Seeing the phrase I would never have put that interpretation on it. It is a good one.
Yep, the 'energy' today is world trade. Perhaps it always has been?
The archeologists keep telling us of finds in 'this' country that come from 'that' country way, way back before we had any idea that people got around much far less actually traded.
And when we look back at our recent shameful past since WWII and the years of the American shameful hegemon we find that's what characterises it, isn't it: they took command of trade.
And they still try to do it.
I find it impossible to comprehend how they can do what they do.
For they mandate 'sanctions'. Literally thousands of them.
What they all are is prohibitions on trade. Every one.
But trade is a two edged sword. It profits both parties else they wouldn't do it.
So when you 'sanction him' and refuse to trade with him you suffer too. You lose your trading partner. Like a spoilt brat who refuses to play with his peers and condemns himself to isolation without playmates.
This is the level that America operates at and it's staggering that's true.
But i find it even more staggering that so many nations allow themselves to be crippled by using the same ploy just as they're told to by the USA. How can they be so stupid and so compliant?
But the evidence is there. Can't be refuted. We see for example Germany watch in silence as the USA destroys the cheap energy that made Germany what it was. Effectively cut Germany's throat: in public. The Germans do nothing. Say nothing.
Then Russia offers them a lifeline: there is one pipe still operative.
The USA forbids its use. The German's comply and here we are; today the nation is bleeding to death.
Staggering isn't it?
"Staggering isn't it?"
Yes it is. What I think we're seeing unfold is a slow collapse of the empire the USA inherited from the British post WWII. It's now in its final death throes, the only thing holding it together is acceptance of the US dollar as a reserve currency, which is in the process of being replaced. Hopefully the loss of empire will be less painful than what Russia went through in the 90's or what Britain suffered in the 40's and 50's.
A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words.
To get a big picture understanding of global conflict you only have to look at some maps of major oil and gas deposits and their transit routes. Wherever you find conflict, you inevitably find either a major gas or oil field, or a significant transit route. The basic idea, going all the way back to WWI (which can be characterized by the emergence of oil to replace coal as a transportation fuel) is to control the world's energy resources, either via direct ownership at the wellhead, or the ability to interdict shipping routes or pipelines.
I include a few maps as examples, but do some searches on your own for different regions and see what you find. Wherever there's war or civil strife, there's almost always a pipeline or major energy resource involved.
In the current context, future Russian energy supplies to China are a game changer in the sense that it will be useless to interdict the energy sea route from the Middle East to China. China is expanding its naval presence to protect that route for now, which is also vital for commercial shipping, but energy and later commercial goods will soon be travelling by land across the New Silk Road currently being built, thus negating or at least reducing the risk to China's economy.
Read up on Mackinder's Heartland Theory to get an idea of the stakes.
The West tipped its hand by destroying Nordstream2. That was an act of desperation meant to prevent the emergence of a German-Russian energy/technology nexus - same motive as WWII. However, Russia has a new partner to replace Germany, and that's why the focus on China.
Ironically much of the technology and manufacturing output of China (which they trade for energy) was provided by the USA over the last few decades. China followed the example of Japan in capturing western markets, first with cheap consumer goods, then moving up the value chain to displace technology and engineering products that were formerly major exports of the USA and EU. Japan also figures in this equation with much of their manufacturing now being done in China. The good thus produced are not the shoddy products you find in Walmart. They are made to Japanese standards which costs more, but Japanese consumers prefer quality to price. Clothing is one example. First rate threads made in China can be bought in Japan, so if you visit Japan, travel light and buy lots of clothes when you get there!
OK, here are a few maps.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d6/1e/bc/d61ebc19f39134862b5f8c91e39b2559.jpg
https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/images/figure1.png
https://mondediplo.com/local/cache-vignettes/L890xH851/lmd_0521_13_gazoducs_rgb-a710b-39eca.jpg?1619690877
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/plattscontent/_assets/_images/latest-news/20200113_pipelinemap.jpg
https://www.eurotrib.com/files/3/060322_Russia_China_gas_routes.gif
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sBBSWMcO5IU/VRjZtqftZbI/AAAAAAAAcZE/6a2WGVrb6LE/s1600/Uranium_Reserves.png
As a footnote, also pay attention to the electrical distribution networks from an economic and military standpoint. Right now the Baltic states are agitating for a new Maginot Line to prevent a Russian invasion, which is absurd on its face. Why would Russia invade those sad-ass countries when they can just knock out their energy grid, as is being done in Ukraine? Pipelines are one thing, but if you can't move the electricity around you'll be eating cold Spam by candlelight.
Once again this is the maintenance of the empire-past. Philippine was a US colony. And I have to say to some extent, USA had managed the colony well (minus the initial batch of massacres of Philippine people). Japanese occupation itself was not particularly brutal (say, compared to Japanese occupation of China's mainland) Japan did not try to station civilians controls either (very different from Japanese occupation of Kora and Taiwan). US simply does not have enough capacity to handle China alone in western Pacific. The under water listening line from Japan to Okinawa to Taiwan to Luzon is most likely fully operational now. I suspect there is another line from Japan to Iwo Jima to Guam, among others. Simply a matter to make up for the missing effort in the past. However, China's strategy against USA has always been to attack the fortress from within. A defense line in western pacific really does not matter that much. In the short term, US and Japan naval forces are more than a match against PLAN, but PLAN focus is not central Pacific or Australia, but the strategic passages through South China Sea and Malacca Strait. China's sub-borne ICBM are too few to penetrate US air defense anyway.
The New Silk Road and Russian energy to China largely negate the maritime shipping routes. A pipeline from Iran to China is also in the cards, thus the overthrow of Imran Khan in Pakistan, whose territory it will eventually pass through if the Taliban don't cut them a better deal.
On the prospect of actual war, I think that's out of the question, at least as far as land based conflict is concerned. How do you invade China, and once there, how do you maintain your supply lines? Then there's the problem of fighting millions of patriotic Chinese on home turf. Vietnam X 100.
Also, the idea of China invading Taiwan is ridiculous. Half the population of Taiwan is just fine with reunification, and the two economies are already integrated to the point that powerful oxen will be gored on the Taiwan side if conflict breaks out, so not gonna happen. It's just another US MIC narrative to keep the graft flowing. It's all about the Benjamins on the US side. The US has already been exposed as a paper tiger, it just hasn't sunk in yet where Americans are concerned. The rest of the world sees it though.
Russia's gas/oil pipeline to China's northeast is absolutely essential but incomplete. The New Silk Road burns transportation energy at 3x or 4x rate than shipping. So the land routes for China are back-ups, not the optimal solutions.
As for the US and Philippine's intentions, they surely do not intend to invade China. US hopes that a prolonged military conflict will strangle China internally, but they will get a Korean War effect: that war helped China to pacify internally and eliminated pretty much all the remaining guerilla warfare elements of the Nationalist government.
Your judgment about the people of Taiwan is very true. While Some Americans today still say "better dead than red", most Taiwanese would say "better money than war". Chinese culture is entirely different from that of Russian's. For whatever Ukrainians claims their differences, they are Russians culturally and fight tenaciously to the end. Chinese usually don't, unless there is a foreign invasion. In other words, US military threats simply helps CCP to extend its life.
"Russia's gas/oil pipeline to China's northeast is absolutely essential but incomplete. The New Silk Road burns transportation energy at 3x or 4x rate than shipping. So the land routes for China are back-ups, not the optimal solutions. "
True enough at the moment, and I guess I should have prefaced my remarks with "in the not too distant future...."
At the moment rail traffic over existing lines is mostly powered by diesel, and cost comparisons to seaborne transportation are indeed unfavourable, IF your final destination is the EU. However, a major part of the plan includes developing the economies of the nations along the route, and ships can't go there.
Here's the game changer:
https://interestingengineering.com/science/the-worlds-first-small-modular-nuclear-reactor-is-sending-power-to-the-grid
The new rail-lines are being built for high speed trains, both freight and passenger, and the lines will be electrified, the power source being modular nuclear reactors, which will also power industry, businesses and homes along the route, with uranium supplied by Kazakhstan and Russia.
The key to understanding the NSR is that it will eventually replace a large part of the markets China currently depends on. The EU and USA are in the process of impoverishing themselves and poor people don't buy as much stuff. Also, their governments are hostile towards China and Russia, and that's unlikely to change any time soon. So the alternative is to develop new markets, and that will be done by industrializing what Mackinder called the "Heartland" - but just a bit further east than he predicted.
Also, bear in mind that once built, branch lines extending north and south will be just as important as the main route, and much of the goods travelling the system will be short hauls between internal customers. All the resources are there at various internal locations, all that needs to happen is to connect them together.
Ironically, Lyndon LaRouche predicted something like this over 40 years ago and people thought he was crazy.
Building a defensive alliance against an enemy that has no interest in attacking you is the height of stupidity - exemplified by the Baltic States and their demand for a new Maginot Line, but just as notable in every other western aligned nation.
Have these people not understood the new technology? In the same sense as battleships were obsolete post WWII, carrier groups are obsolete today, thanks to advances in missile technology. Even worse from a western standpoint, Russia is now sharing some of its more advanced systems with nations the west considers hostile. What this means is that any attempt to attack from the air using carriers as your base will quickly be eliminated. At present, Russian missiles can reach a carrier group at 1000km distance and there's nothing that can stop them. I imagine China already has this capacity, but soon everyone will. Just keep pushing Russia and that's exactly what will happen, as they've already told you.
My question is : Who is the USA going to use as cannon fodder this time? Taiwan Chinese, Japanese, or Filipinos? Who is after the Ukrainians and Palestinians? This must stop. Now.
I've seen the idea floated of offering citizenship to "dreamers" AKA illegal migrants, by serving in the US military. How likely this is I have no idea, but with the right incentives it could be done and would likely increase the flow of military age men from down south, at least til they start dying in numbers. Then it won't be so attractive.